Jump to content

hawkeye_wx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,383

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS has shifted east. It appears this system may not phase in time to hit Iowa, outside of the far east/southeast. The darn lead wave is 3-6 hours too fast.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    The Euro basically just trended halfway to the UK. ARGH. It is a bit faster with the lead wave and slower with the trailing wave. That's all it takes to ruin/delay the phase.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    00z UK - Slight improvement, but STILL weak and well southeast of the other models. Isn't this supposed to be the second best model?
  4. hawkeye_wx
    00z Canadian - The defo zone is a bit north, but also more spread out and less intense compared to previous runs.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    00z GFS It's not a big change from 18z, but it has pulled some of the snow back away from Iowa again.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    The NAM is not the only model trending south. The ICON has taken most of Iowa and Wisconsin out of the snow. It has not just shifted south, but there is more distance between the waves and less/weaker phasing. I hope the ICON is not worth taking seriously.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    Last three NAM runs.... it had better stop here.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    18z Euro
  9. hawkeye_wx
    The 18z op GFS is getting closer to the Euro. The southern edge is farther south and the heavy stuff extends farther sw into Iowa.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS ensemble isn't far from the other models.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    Madison has been hot recently.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    That's exactly what I thought. At first glance, it looks like your typical "southern Iowa is mild, northern Iowa is cold behind the front(or still stuck with deep snow)" map, but then you realize the "cold" is 60º.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    Chicagoland members won't like the 12z Euro. It has shifted the 500 mb low north to the I-80 corridor (last run was northern MO to central IL), and the surface low gets up to Chicago, so the snow band has moved up into Wisconsin and the WI/IL border region. We don't need this trending any farther north.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    The UK just doesn't want to play ball, yet. The problem appears to be the UK is speeding the first wave eastward faster than the other models. It has the trailing upper low like the others, but the first wave is so fast it does not get captured by the trailing energy, so the entire system ends up weak and moisture-starved. I thought we'd see improvement this morning, but this run is actually a step backward again.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, the Canadian still has the trailing energy digging farther south. The surface low hangs out in southern IL/IN as the upper low catches up. The GFS takes that surface low and lifts it well north. 12z Canadian... pretty steady the last few runs.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    This was the temp map three years ago. Ottumwa nearly hit 80º, which is insane for February.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS is sticking with the north route. The surface low gets all the way up to near Green Bay, so it's WAY up there. It is stronger, though.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    FWIW, the NAM is north and strong.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    00z Euro is hot for areas nw of the UK. It appears the Euro wants the trailing energy to grab ahold of the lead energy more than the UK, and it obviously tracks the trailing energy farther north.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    We won't have a better idea of what the trailing energy will do for another 1-2 days. It won't come ashore in Washington until sometime Sunday.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    00z UK is better than the dud 12z, but it's not nearly as far nw as other models. This run does spin up the trailing energy decently for our central/eastern members.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS is well north, but it's pretty meh. There is definitely a north trend from the models so far this evening. The NAM and ICON are more robust with the snow band, but they are not the top models.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    FWIW, the 00z ICON has shifted north quite a bit, with a solid phase. The snow band is now Iowa northeastward into WI and northern MI.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    That's a pretty good snow swath considering the lead system sweeps away so much moisture.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    Models are now focusing on the lead system, tracking it a bit farther north. Unfortunately, while we are pretty cold now, the cold will be gone when the lead system arrives.
×
×
  • Create New...