Will the warm flip back to cold again(and then back and back and back) or is the warm going to stick?
Last winter lasted five weeks. Maybe this winter will last two weeks.
All the models (minus the ICON) are going north this morning. The midnight Euro, plus the 12z UK and Canadian have snow through southeast Iowa.
Here's the Canadian.
Up to 7" has fallen in north-central Iowa and it's still snowing there. Models handled this system poorly. Instead of a narrow nw-se band through the state, it's more like one heavy pocket with not a lot elsewhere. The HRRR suggests there could be another decent pocket over in the QC area.
It's not looking as favorable here now. The band was expected to stall over us, but the dry slot is about to clear through the area. We may end up with only an inch.
It's certainly looking like a couple inches is a good bet around here.
Unfortunately, it appears every snow system this winter is going to start just after dark in the evening.
I'd take a repeat of last winter. December was blah and the first week of January was a blowtorch, but then the hammer dropped and we had the snowiest five week period on record. Winter ended after those five weeks, but it was an amazing period.