hawkeye_wx

Haha.... euro just went against the other models and shifted back nw.

The 3k NAM doesn't even have a first wave for Iowa.

Models are gradually moving away from a significant storm for Iowa. The ICON had been very robust for eastern Iowa, but now it's just a brief whitening late Friday and then nothing. The timing of the waves is becoming less favorable.

Small changes in the speed of the northern and southern waves will have a significant impact on this area.

UK is southeast a bit tonight, removing all snow from Iowa from the main wave, but still amps up nicely and lays a swath of heavy snow through Chicago.

GFS & Euro not on the same page, particularly for Iowa/Wisconsin. The GFS is faster with the southern energy and remains more connected to the northern energy racing across Canada, so the system gets tilted positive and is yanked more eastward. The 12z Euro was slower with the southern energy and the two streams remain more detached, allowing the southern wave to cut to the lakes as the northern energy gets out of the way.

12z UK has a cutter.... big snow centered from northern MO to Milwaukee to Traverse City.

12z Euro

All the models (minus the ICON) are going north this morning. The midnight Euro, plus the 12z UK and Canadian have snow through southeast Iowa. Here's the Canadian.

GFS is pretty messy.

There are reports of 5" of snow from just east of Cedar Rapids last night where a small pocket of heavy snow sat for a couple hours.

The Euro has something on the 12th.

Now there is an 8" report. Dang.

Up to 7" has fallen in north-central Iowa and it's still snowing there. Models handled this system poorly. Instead of a narrow nw-se band through the state, it's more like one heavy pocket with not a lot elsewhere. The HRRR suggests there could be another decent pocket over in the QC area.

It's not looking as favorable here now. The band was expected to stall over us, but the dry slot is about to clear through the area. We may end up with only an inch.

It's certainly looking like a couple inches is a good bet around here. Unfortunately, it appears every snow system this winter is going to start just after dark in the evening.

Jan 6/7 system on the 12z Euro

Euro.... this run has better interaction between the lead, moist, wave and the upper energy diving in from Iowa.

12z Euro - End of week system. It's there, but not exceptionally organized.

1.09" of rain here.

Cyclone is getting some nice rain this morning as a heavier batch tracks through the QC area. Barely anything here.

UK is really going nuts with the secondary energy as well. Update: 00z Euro is 10 mb weaker than the UK.

My memory sucks, so I really don't remember a lot of weather events from past years. However, here are a few I remember. January-February 2019: Snowiest 5-week period on record (44") Late January 2019: Record cold (-30º at the airport) Winter of 2013-14: I remember it being brutally cold after several snow events. Groundhog Day storm and another GHD/Superbowl storm earlier in the decade. They weren't huge storms here, but it's about the best we can do. Morch and the severe drought (2012?) It was a generally wet decade. June was an incredibly wet month this decade. The entire decade produced only TWO 10" snowstorms. That's it. This is the ultimate nickel & dimer climate. It's not that difficult for storms to produce 10" of snow, but here it certainly is.

Cedar Rapids also has a decent shot at 60º today.