Jump to content

hawkeye_wx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,463

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    There is some significant model spread. The Euro is north and is the best for MSP. The Canadian is south and is best for Iowa. I even get heavy snow from the Canadian. Other models are in between, but the trend is to drift it south a bit. The latest UK now has the best snow from northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    Models show a potent system streaking into the nw part of the region on Sunday. Southern Minnesota looks like the bulls-eye. The system then weakens as it heads east into the lakes.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    00z Euro... This run has narrowed the main snow band, but added a bit to Chicagoland.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    The central plains wave has been the problem for the models. The GFS, for example, initially had this wave becoming very progressive and badly stretched out. Then, a day or so ago, it suddenly trended toward a much slower, closed-off wave that even allowed good snow to get pulled back into Iowa. That was clearly wrong as well. The other models have been less extreme, but they've all struggled with the details of that wave.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    Definitely game over for Iowa.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    12z UK a major walk-back for Chicagoland. This run has strengthened the final wave for Ohio.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    00z Euro ticked southeast
  8. hawkeye_wx
    Models are showing little change tonight.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS had gone to crap for this storm largely because it tried to stretch out and yank eastward the northern part of the western energy, which led to postively-tilted, suppressed nothing. The model is now furiously trying to undo that scenario. Now, instead of the energy getting sheared apart and whisked away, it holds it back and even closes it off over Iowa with the 18z run, which obviously leads to a very different result.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    For several days, the GFS has been hinting at a potential system as we approach mid month. The Euro is finally catching on. This morning's run has a widespread snow-to-mix overrunning event, not unlike the one we experienced a couple weeks ago.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    Yep, total cave job. This Euro run sped up the northern part of the energy and shifted the southern piece a good bit back to the sw. Put those changes together and you pretty much get what the other models are showing.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    12z UK
  13. hawkeye_wx
    Our low temp was in the upper 30s and we're already in the 40s today, so the good snowpack is taking a hit.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    Euro says, "Wtf is the GFS smoking?" Edit: Actually, now that I look back at the GFS, it does spin up a big storm. It's just well east of the Euro.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    12z Euro is less interesting again, more positively-tilted/east/weak.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    12z UK is similar to last night. It has the initial weak wave that drops a bit of light snow up here, then there's a second, stronger wave, then a third good wave for eastern areas
  17. hawkeye_wx
    12z GFS is a big step backward. The northern stream digs a little more again, which grabs the strong western energy and stretches it out and yanks the northern part of it eastward. We end up with a weak, positively-tilted system.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    We are getting a major change tonight from the UK and Euro. They are now trying to hold a lot more energy back to the west, so it is able to spin up a better wave that tracks much farther nw. At the surface an organized "big" storm is not quite there, yet. Both the UK and Euro drop a few inches of snow through Iowa.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    I'm not excited about this. As the western energy moves into the upper midwest, the northern stream digs down ahead of it and shears it apart.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    What the GFS is showing this morning will probably vanish on future runs. It feels like a flukey run. Models are generally just showing a strong cold front sweeping through the midwest. This is the first model run that shows a flattening of the fropa with a nice wave or two riding along the front. I'd have to see more models doing this, and stick with it, before I'd get excited.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    I saw some sun today.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    Will the warm flip back to cold again(and then back and back and back) or is the warm going to stick? Last winter lasted five weeks. Maybe this winter will last two weeks.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    Jesus Christ, people, can we please get back on topic? One person mentions JB and we get twenty f'n posts shi**ing on him. Enough!
  24. hawkeye_wx
    12z Euro
  25. hawkeye_wx
×
×
  • Create New...