Jump to content

NC_hailstorm

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,593

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by NC_hailstorm

  1. NC_hailstorm
    Ukie moved north from 0z and is more amped at 999 in S.central Alabama.Heights behind it and northeast of it are a bit lower though. That looks like a good hit for E.Tennessee and Ky if I had to guess,0z Euro had a 996 coming right through CLT at day 7.
  2. NC_hailstorm
    Should start to see some stronger high pressures coming down if the SSW was strong and persistent. They'll filter down from the strat to the troposphere,Ukie has a 1039 coming into SE Canada at day 6.
  3. NC_hailstorm
    Check out the heights crash on the Ukie. Has the 582dm line on the NC/SC border at day 2,then south of Cuba and approaching Jamaica at day 6.That line usually hangs around south/central Florida in a typical winter.
  4. NC_hailstorm
    The Euro and Ukie look close at day 6 with a decent trough/lower heights,that looks like phase 7-8 mjo signal starting to arrive. Euro has a follow up trough at day 8/9 with lower heights. Carry on with the moaning and complaining.
  5. NC_hailstorm
    Anyways at first glance on the Euro it looks like the strongest/coldest piece of the PV goes into Scandinavia at day 6.North America gets a smaller piece in Eastern Canada somewhere with decent blocking up over the top. First guess and subject to change on the SSW talk.
  6. NC_hailstorm
    Very poor scoring the last 5 or 6 days.
  7. NC_hailstorm
    All the models are scoring very poorly the last 5 days,anything 5 days and beyond should not be trusted at all until things shake out.
  8. NC_hailstorm
    Hit on the Euro today day 9/10
  9. NC_hailstorm
    Might wanna save this,850mb at 10 AM
  10. NC_hailstorm
    Right now I'd say the Euro and the FV3 look pretty close with the cutoff line somewhere along highway 73 in the southern piedmont of NC. Sleet will probably mix in everywhere time to time with warm pockets coming through but more south of there. Carry on.
  11. NC_hailstorm
    The FV3 has been running pretty well lately by the verification scores so we'll see.
  12. NC_hailstorm
    Heights are a little lower on the Ukie with the 570dm deeper into the upstate and south of CLT this run compared to 42. It's only 20-25 miles maybe but every mile counts now.
  13. NC_hailstorm
    I might save this one.Day 8 Euro.
  14. NC_hailstorm
    Think I was looking at 12km but yeah you're right.
  15. NC_hailstorm
    The 18z NAM continues to cut these rainfall totals in NW NC,3''-5'' across there on this run with a big cutoff just SE of CLT where 9'' plus are.Might be a bit light but we'll see. Carry on.
  16. NC_hailstorm
    GFS has your area right on 6'',higher totals to the southwest
  17. NC_hailstorm
    GFS cut back on the totals for people in the W.Piedmont/foothills on this last run.The NAM looks similar and is a bit less. It brings heavy rain in around hour 38 and lasts to about hour 56,with lighter rain on either end for a bit so it pours for at least 18 hours. Solid 4''-8'' looks ok right now with isolated 10'' lollipops possible.
  18. NC_hailstorm
    Ukie has been putting down some big totals the last few runs.That's 50'' south of Wilmington. Ukie day 4
  19. NC_hailstorm
    Euro has a wicked squall line coming through the W.Piedmont/central NC around 129-138.Looks to be what's left of the eyewall and might be the worst of it for those areas.
  20. NC_hailstorm
    Euro at day 6
  21. NC_hailstorm
    Euro,Ukie and FV3(3 highest performing models)look pretty close now,think we're close to our track now. Euro with a big shift east getting in line with the other two,its stiil a tick too far west while the Ukie is still a tick too far east in my opinion. Have to say the FV3 has been really good on this storm so far.
  22. NC_hailstorm
    Ukie is a hit a little north of Wilmington around Jacksonville at day 5,in between the Euro and GFS runs.
  23. NC_hailstorm
    GFS is basically not worth looking at past day 5,day 4 and in it does get better and carry some weight. The difference is around hour 72-96,the GFS pulls the 594dm death ridge out sooner along the VA,MD coast giving it room to stay east.The Euro holds the 594dm death ridge in longer and lets it steer more west.I would look for a middle of the road compromise here in my opinion,a stall out is possible too because of no steering currents once it gets to the coast either. Carry on.
  24. NC_hailstorm
    Less ridging on today's runs,the 594dm death ridge gone after day 5/6.off the coast. Still enough to get an landfall but should go east if this is correct.Have to watch for trends,nothing settled yet.
  25. NC_hailstorm
    Yep the latest Ukie has it south of Charleston now at 144,close to the GA border.It's also pushing the 594dm death ridge further west covering all of VA and northern N Carolina then too It's not making a hard right if that's there in my opinion.
×
×
  • Create New...