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NC_hailstorm

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  1. NC_hailstorm
    20.5 here this morning Some monthly temps for the region,guess who's still above average. GSP -1.3 HKY -0.7 AVL -0.8 RDU -0.2 GSO -0.8 FAY -0.2 CAE -1.3 CLT +0.7
  2. NC_hailstorm
    Little chilly this morning,14.4 for a low.
  3. NC_hailstorm
    Front just arrived here,howling winds all of a sudden from the WNW.Good 8 degree drop in about 15 or 20 minutes.
  4. NC_hailstorm
    Canadian looks similar at that range so Euro is not alone.. Watch that shortwave diving in the 4 corners area around day 7/8.
  5. NC_hailstorm
    GFS still going for that SSW in the long range,the attack begins today or tomorrow with higher solar input. When and if it occurs you have to watch where that PV sets up .You don't want that getting stuck in central,SW Canada that happened a few years ago and hurt more than helped and I'm talking about down at 100hpa levels. Just my opinion.
  6. NC_hailstorm
    Lights out for me.
  7. NC_hailstorm
    November’s AMO index saw a sharp decline to 0.125. Good sign for AO/NAO but hasn't been negative since December 2018 and we know what happened then.Also some warmer water showing up around Greenland. Get another attack on the Polar Vortex starting Dec.20th in my opinion.
  8. NC_hailstorm
    Well the most important thing is....Who's gonna start the thread?
  9. NC_hailstorm
    Looks right it is forecasted to push to 100mb.Everything I read is you want easterly at 30mb maybe he wants it at 100mb too.
  10. NC_hailstorm
    Anyways,my two cents on winter.Good and Bad. Good: There's always a 3 to 4 year lag on low solar/sunspots so just coming into that,blocking Ascending phase of the solar cycle,blocking QBO-Bad now could be good soon very deceiving only a small patch of westerlies is at the equator with EQBO forecasted to push down to 30mb.Weakens PV.blocking. BAD ENSO- La Lina Usually southeast ridging .west trough. Gulf Stream-Tick better than last year but still not good.Looking for colder waters from Newfoundland/Nova Scotia/down to NC,Warm around Greenland..NAO is what you look at here. About it .
  11. NC_hailstorm
    Sure come on up get away from all the terrible Mooresville traffic.
  12. NC_hailstorm
    Looks like we'll get some fairly potent MCS action over the next 24 hours.The HRRR has the first arriving overnight with two more crossing Saturday afternoon. Damaging winds the big issue most likely,they are really flying moving SE.
  13. NC_hailstorm
    Might wanna save this,850mb at 10 AM
  14. NC_hailstorm
    Right now I'd say the Euro and the FV3 look pretty close with the cutoff line somewhere along highway 73 in the southern piedmont of NC. Sleet will probably mix in everywhere time to time with warm pockets coming through but more south of there. Carry on.
  15. NC_hailstorm
    The FV3 has been running pretty well lately by the verification scores so we'll see.
  16. NC_hailstorm
    Heights are a little lower on the Ukie with the 570dm deeper into the upstate and south of CLT this run compared to 42. It's only 20-25 miles maybe but every mile counts now.
  17. NC_hailstorm
    I might save this one.Day 8 Euro.
  18. NC_hailstorm
    Think I was looking at 12km but yeah you're right.
  19. NC_hailstorm
    The 18z NAM continues to cut these rainfall totals in NW NC,3''-5'' across there on this run with a big cutoff just SE of CLT where 9'' plus are.Might be a bit light but we'll see. Carry on.
  20. NC_hailstorm
    GFS has your area right on 6'',higher totals to the southwest
  21. NC_hailstorm
    GFS cut back on the totals for people in the W.Piedmont/foothills on this last run.The NAM looks similar and is a bit less. It brings heavy rain in around hour 38 and lasts to about hour 56,with lighter rain on either end for a bit so it pours for at least 18 hours. Solid 4''-8'' looks ok right now with isolated 10'' lollipops possible.
  22. NC_hailstorm
    Ukie has been putting down some big totals the last few runs.That's 50'' south of Wilmington. Ukie day 4
  23. NC_hailstorm
    Euro has a wicked squall line coming through the W.Piedmont/central NC around 129-138.Looks to be what's left of the eyewall and might be the worst of it for those areas.
  24. NC_hailstorm
    Euro at day 6
  25. NC_hailstorm
    Euro,Ukie and FV3(3 highest performing models)look pretty close now,think we're close to our track now. Euro with a big shift east getting in line with the other two,its stiil a tick too far west while the Ukie is still a tick too far east in my opinion. Have to say the FV3 has been really good on this storm so far.
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