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NC_hailstorm

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Everything posted by NC_hailstorm

  1. NC_hailstorm
    -Canadian brings the Baja shortwave out,phases too early and is amped up. -GFS misses the phase,colder and a good hit with the shortwave. -UK misses the phase but isn't as cold as the GFS, sleet/snow mix but no cutter this run.
  2. NC_hailstorm
    Looks like the UKMET and the AIGFS are phasing too early over Arizona,giving this a chance to be amped up,delaying the cold press,and letting it cut. If its going to phase it needs to over around the Rio Grande like the 12z Euro.Or you miss the phase and get a storm with either shortwave. Just my opinion.
  3. NC_hailstorm
    Canadian is a tick slower with the cold press,but does eventually go sleet/snow.Still a good thump.
  4. NC_hailstorm
    There's a -4 to -5 AO and a 1045-1050 high,that's most of it in my opinion.
  5. NC_hailstorm
    Wow is that 18 inches here? good god.
  6. NC_hailstorm
    Good grief the Euro is about to drop the big hammer here.
  7. NC_hailstorm
    That's a barrage of hits at day 6/7 and beyond today,coming in from all sides all models.
  8. NC_hailstorm
    Lot of noise,lot of honking in that day 9-10 range.
  9. NC_hailstorm
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd In other words the professionals who get paid for this don't have a clue either,let's just flip a coin then.
  10. NC_hailstorm
    Good grief..... GEFS
  11. NC_hailstorm
    That's still a big jump on the Canadian,low off the coast now with precip in interior areas. Had nothing till tonight.
  12. NC_hailstorm
    UKIE is scoring 2nd overall.we'll see. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/global/mrw/acc_31days/
  13. NC_hailstorm
    585-588 dm in the Pac NW and a ULL with 519 dm into the southeast that's nuts. If it digs more and gets a few more ticks west,look out.
  14. NC_hailstorm
    The shortwave divebombing in from east central Canada/ through Minnesota at hour 84-96 needs to phase with the plains shortwave.GFS does this,Euro doesn't.And everything a tad more west.
  15. NC_hailstorm
    Seen some 588 dm in Oregon on the UK,nuts that's like having a death ridge in the Pac NW. Very high potential here,if the shortwaves can dig further southwest in my opinion.
  16. NC_hailstorm
    Seen some 579 dm in southwest Canada and almost 585 dm in Washington,that's just crazy to begin with if your looking at 500 mb.
  17. NC_hailstorm
    991 low in NE North Carolina at 138,snow on the backside.
  18. NC_hailstorm
    997 low off the coast of Wilmington/Myrtle Beach on the GFS,snow on the westward side at hour 150-156
  19. NC_hailstorm
    That needs to phase around the Mississippi River to get a good storm.Either something slows down or something speeds up but interesting to watch.
  20. NC_hailstorm
    Two X class flares over the last two days but a larger X flare just went off today.
  21. NC_hailstorm
    GSP . If the closed low sags far enough south that it cross the area on Monday, don`t be surprised to see a few snow flurries break containment east of the mountains, with flurries possible across the foothills and Piedmont Monday evening. The chance is low, but definitely nonzero.
  22. NC_hailstorm
    Strong vort coming over Sun/Mon,be interesting if some flurries can break out over the piedmont.
  23. NC_hailstorm
    Oops 1.5''
  24. NC_hailstorm
    Winding down here,I'll go with 1'5'' total.
  25. NC_hailstorm
    Moderate snow here,sticking to roads. 25.7
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