NC_hailstorm

Looks like the 12z Ukie is bringing that cutoff energy in the SW through here around day 6. Low right through the upstate of SC with good rain totals,0z Euro cuts the low through Ohio with rain as well.

MJO re emerging in the W.Pacific right on time(Nov.11-16th)with a big Arctic front entering the eastern US.Still think it keeps moving till around Nov.28th-Dec.4th into phase7,8,1,2 but as low as the solar wind has been this cycle I'd lean closer to early December but we'll see. MJO should stall,weaken.or move to Maritime around Nov.28th-Dec.4th.There may be a relaxing of the pattern around and a bit after then then but the MJO should re emerge around Dec.6th-Dec.12th.December can be tricky if we get unexpected solar wind flareups like last year which in my opinion locked up the MJO in a warm phase longer than expected. Also I'm watching the QBO closely,if that flips let's just say watch out. Just my opinion.

Temps thru Nov.10th.Cold month so far and what's more shocking is CLT NOT in the lead for the first time in 6 months. GSP -6.0 HKY -6.2 AVL -4.6 RDU -5.3 GSO -5.2 CAE -4.5 CLT -4.7

Looks like the Ukie is going for a coastal Friday/Saturday.Cutoff looks around I-85 south but that looks cold and wet if it's right. GFS has nothing,.

MJO moving into Maritime right on time(Nov.2nd-Nov 7th)with a slight stall forecasted.Still think it emerges sometime Nov.11th-Nov.16th I'm leaning closer to Nov.11th into the Western Pacific/West.Hem.Warm spell looks brief though this week. When it does come out it should keep moving till around Nov.28-Dec.4th when the next sun/solar wind rotation occurs.Could be a cold month id it's in phase 7,8,1,and 2. Just my opinion.

My opinion is the MJO will keep moving till sometime around Nov.2nd-Nov.7th and then weaken or move to the Maritime.It should re emerge sometime around Nov.11th-Nov.16th meaning the first half of November might be warmer so we'll see.

12z Ukie is bringing the hammer Sunday for eastern parts of NC/SC.Gulf low right up the coast.

Last couple HRRR runs looking better for the GSP -CLT-GSO-RDU corrider putting down .75'' -1.00'' in 8 to 18 hours.Sharp cutoff on both sides with only a few tenths so we'll see how it goes.

12z Euro delivers,ticking totals further NW.

Euro at day 5/6 looks better today but we need a couple more ticks NW to get the mountains/foothills a little more.Let's hope this chance works out this time.

Best looking precip map I've seen in about 6 or 7 weeks,Euro gets wetter after day 7 dropping in a strong shortwave and lowering the heights.

I would also watch the the gulf stream very closely and the AMOC(Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation)This has been a hotspot to watch from about Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod maybe a bit further into Canada. Solar minimum weakens the circulation,moving it further south in my opinion.2009-10 is a prime example to what to look for and QBO flipped to negative halfway through that year.Cut off the gulf stream and you most likely get colder. http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/~tezer/PAPERS/2015_GPC_AMOC_SL.pdf

Why is it we're getting the biggest solar wind flareups in September lately? 2017- 760 km/s 2018- 758 km/s 2019-872 km/s Could be coincidence,,could be some sort of new cycle.

The QBO has been positive for 10 straight months with the last reading at 9.97 for August,peaking in May at 14.59 so trending down.Interesting to see if it can flip to negative before winter which would be good. Euro going colder west/warmer east for now for DJF.

12z Euro came in a good bit wetter than 0z and looks more closer to the GFS at day 7-10,just something to watch for but the GFS has even bigger totals.

Looks like we'll get some fairly potent MCS action over the next 24 hours.The HRRR has the first arriving overnight with two more crossing Saturday afternoon. Damaging winds the big issue most likely,they are really flying moving SE.

5 day totals on the Euro today.

Ukie bringing it on today's run,6 day totals.

Seasonal forecasts on the Euro for the summer,2m temps and Heights for the next 3 months.

Euro continues to ramp up the precip,GFS similar.

Lower heights/trof return tomorrow,death ridge being weakened and pushed back out.Better rain chances begin around day 6 on the Euro,GFS is similar.

Pretty map today.

Looks like this big cutter coming through this weekend will flip the pattern finally and put the low heights,PV on our side of the hemisphere. MJO has a good chance running out to 3/8 or 3/9 considering this sun rotation is coming much,much weaker than the previous one,first 10 days or so in March are in play IMO.

All you want to do is hit the target somewhere more than half the time with all these models,model runs,ensembles,etc.You won't hit a bullseye with every run that's gonna come through here but enough hits keeps you in the hunt. Inside 48 hours is when you wanna start aiming for bullseyes. Just my opinion.

Agree I'll take that look at day 6 on the Ukie.These heights usually bump north with time and the trajectory of them are more southwest-northeast at day 6 then day 5.