NC_hailstorm

Been there several times.Still rain/snow mix. 33.4

33.4 rain/snow mix can't get a complete changeover yet.

Snow here,large flakes. 34.1

Clouds rolled in fast after a clear morning,mostly cloudy and 39.6 26.4 for a low.

Good grief that 18zHRRR is impressive.Still wasn't done at 48 hours.

Have been noticing the Euro forecast is ever so slightly trying to pull this MJO into phase 1 over the last 5 or so days.Even better look if that happened so things still on schedule. Carry on.

Funny how no model or any forecaster saw any of the impressive blocking so far,NOBODY but the solar signals screamed blocking.It is fighting a healthy La Nina so we do have a battle going on right now. About to exit the latest solar cycle and given the usual 10 day lag(give or take a few days)things should improve with tropical forcing and MJO help.This latest cycle also should finish off the PV for a SSW soon,Euro is trying to push into phase 2 MJO which is usually a cold look for the east around 10-12 days.AO still looks to stay quite negative as does NAO so as long as that blocking shows up you are still in the game. Would like to see that PV enter the troposphere by Jan.25th or so on our side of the continent,another cycle around then would most likely pull it west if it entered later. I'm not throwing in the towel yet I'll wait a while.Just my opinion.

20.5 here this morning Some monthly temps for the region,guess who's still above average. GSP -1.3 HKY -0.7 AVL -0.8 RDU -0.2 GSO -0.8 FAY -0.2 CAE -1.3 CLT +0.7

Little chilly this morning,14.4 for a low.

Front just arrived here,howling winds all of a sudden from the WNW.Good 8 degree drop in about 15 or 20 minutes.

Canadian looks similar at that range so Euro is not alone.. Watch that shortwave diving in the 4 corners area around day 7/8.

GFS still going for that SSW in the long range,the attack begins today or tomorrow with higher solar input. When and if it occurs you have to watch where that PV sets up .You don't want that getting stuck in central,SW Canada that happened a few years ago and hurt more than helped and I'm talking about down at 100hpa levels. Just my opinion.

Lights out for me.

November’s AMO index saw a sharp decline to 0.125. Good sign for AO/NAO but hasn't been negative since December 2018 and we know what happened then.Also some warmer water showing up around Greenland. Get another attack on the Polar Vortex starting Dec.20th in my opinion.

Well the most important thing is....Who's gonna start the thread?

Looks right it is forecasted to push to 100mb.Everything I read is you want easterly at 30mb maybe he wants it at 100mb too.

Anyways,my two cents on winter.Good and Bad. Good: There's always a 3 to 4 year lag on low solar/sunspots so just coming into that,blocking Ascending phase of the solar cycle,blocking QBO-Bad now could be good soon very deceiving only a small patch of westerlies is at the equator with EQBO forecasted to push down to 30mb.Weakens PV.blocking. BAD ENSO- La Lina Usually southeast ridging .west trough. Gulf Stream-Tick better than last year but still not good.Looking for colder waters from Newfoundland/Nova Scotia/down to NC,Warm around Greenland..NAO is what you look at here. About it .

Sure come on up get away from all the terrible Mooresville traffic.

No need to be a smartass dude with your snarky remarks. Why don't you move along son and let some of us observe and research things while you stare out your window and pray for snow.

Basically here's what going on(in my opinion) -Notice the lack of any MJO through the Maritime over the last 90-100 days.Low solar/EEPusually equal less Maritime forcing in general.Now you add extremely low solar wind/EEP over 100 days and you get an undisturbed/boiling Maritime.Nobody including me was paying any attention to that too much and this was all solar forced/induced with low solar wind over 3 months. -The best example i can give is throwing a match at the end of a gas leak with a vehicle at the other end about 100 feet,that vehicle will explode in a couple seconds.Same thing going on here the MJO gets close to the warming gets pulled rapidly,way ahead of schedule to the Maritime and explodes.Just file that away for later,use what you learned and be prepared next time. _MJO should still come out Jan 22nd-26th after the rotation around Jan 14th.Whether or not we get strong one to p8 p1 and p2 remains to be seen that feature in the Maritime looks potent and might get another repeat of this last MJO cycle so we'll see. Just my opinion.

MJO re emerging today right on time (Dec.26th-Jan 1) MJO forecasts are slowly correcting,moving this into p7,p8 and possibly p1,this latest kp3 solar wind shouldn't be enough to get a full transfer to the Maritime in my opinion.Only cracking 400km/s so far,low solar/EEP +GLAMM don't equal Maritime forcing. MJO will stall weaken/stall or get pulled to Maritime around Jan14-Jan 18th though when the next rotation begins,get another relaxing/warming period then or a bit afterwards. Just my opinion.

Pretty sure I see the culprit on why these MJO forecasts are trying to stall/loop/Maritime. There's now a forecast of kp3(elevated solar wind/EEP) for 12/25 12/26 and 12/27 that was NOT there three days ago.Any extra solar wind/EEP will try to stall and loop the MJO into Maritime,and given the 4-8 day lag that's why its trying to loop it around Jan 1st-5th. Depending how strong this is will determine whether or not we get a cold first half of January in my opinion,anything over 500km/s for 3 days won't be good either.Seeing as a relaxing period is coming Jan14th- Jan.18th anyway because of the regular rotation it will be Jan.22nd -Jan.26th before the MJO reemerges. Just my opinion.

MJO weakening and entering the COD right on time (Dec.18th-Dec.22nd)and entering the relaxing/warming period .Everything looks on schedule to me. Still think the MJO reemerges around Dec.26th-Jan.1st ,getting a short/weak rotation so far only a 4 day event with kp4 levels and solar wind/EEP only cracking 550km/s nothing to stall it or loop it in my opinion.GLAMM and torque should respond as the forcing moves back equatorially. It might sneak into p6 but this should enter p7 rapidly and keep moving(p8 p1) till around Jan.14th when the next rotation begins.Then we get another relaxing/warmer period(5-7 days) around and after then. Just my opinion.

Temps through 12/13.Couple really warm days (12/1 and 12/10) keeping temps closer to average. GSP -0.6 HKY 0.0 AVL +1.1 RDU -0.2 GSO -1.2 CAE +1.3 CLT +1.2

Euro seasonal looks better today,this updates every 13th day of the month.Much better blocking showing up south of Alaska now,.Heights across the lower 48 much lower this was all in the 40%-50%-50%-60% above average(light/moderate yellow) in November.Better heights in Greenland this was all mostly 40%-50% below average(light blue) in November as well.