NC_hailstorm

Just looking at the Euro/Berlin strat site,I see the QBO forecast to switch to easterly in 5-7 days at 30hpa at the equator.That's pretty significant. Sooner the better because it's going to take a while to bust up that strong PV that's running pretty strong at the moment,least a month or so to feel any effects.

MJO re emerging In phase 2 today and right on time(Dec.6th-Dec.12th).Should continue there till around Dec.18th-Dec.22nd if we get a short lag time.Weakens or a pull to Maritime and we get a brief relaxing of the pattern afterwards. MJO should reemerge around Dec.26th-Jan.1st if we get the short lag time,pattern reloads but these lag times are getting shorter because in my opinion of very,very,low solar wind?EEP and shorter/weaker CME rotations.I counted 5 days this week where it went below 300km/s. Just my opinion.

Euro has a strong shortwave moving into N.California/S.Oregon at day 4. Into S.Arizona/N. Mexico at day 6 then into W.Texas at day 7 which produces the gulf low. Ukie has this piece at day 3/4 but looks more sheared out as it moves south.Whether or not it runs right into a 1043 high remains to be seen but something to track.

Looks like the MJO is struggling to push into phase 3 by Dec.15th just looking at the latest forecasts which make sense in my opinion.This latest solar wind/CME/ sun rotation exited on 11/28 meaning low solar wind,+GLAMM are returning now.This should continue till December 18th when the next high solar wind/CME rotation comes in and weakens the MJO or pushes it to Maritime after the 18th. Phase 1 and 2 are colder for Eastern US in December,low solar/EEP +GLAMM don't equal Maritime forcing or Indian forcing so I'd be very cautious throwing out big December warmups at least through Dec.18th. +GLAMM/low solar/EEP into an El Nino promotes blocking as well,you could easily get 7-10 days of some sort blocking in between solar rotations in my opinion.The QBO is a whole different matter, stratospheric anomalies tend to be transmitted down to the troposphere during an easterly QBO rather more than a westerly one. Strong research that -QBO with low solar promote blocking as well. Just my opinion.

Lot of these experts or so called experts like using and looking at Global Angular Momentum( GLAMM),Mountain torque(MT),and Global Wind Oscilation(GWO).These are all fine to use but in my opinion the solar wind/EEP/CME/sun rotation drive all these ultimately.Most people don't even know what these are so Ill try. -GLAMM is a measure of the turning force of the winds and it oscialltes up and down.When its high its called +GLAMM when low its called -GLAMM. - Torques make up significant parts of the momentum as well. They are large drivers in tendency in angular momentum helping to remove or add winds to the atmosphere. - Rising GLAAM is better for promoting a disrupted flow pattern which is supportive of higher latitude blocking in winter..Blocking is more likely during El Nino (+GLAAM) .Seasonlly dependent though -GLAMM in summer promtes blocking. - Tropical forcing is very significant as this is a major driver in global momentum. (MJO) Low solar wind/EEP pushes the Hadley cells Equatorially(+GLAMM into the MJO) High solar wind/EEP pushes the Hadley cells to the Polar regions(-GLAMM weakens the MJO) Anyone notice the GWO and GLAMM completely dropped out at the beginning of September and the MJO completely locked up?Isn't a coincidence the solar wind/EEP roared to life then hitting 872km/s .The next rotation hit in late September and kept it knocked down. Anyone notice it shoot straight upwards around Oct,10th and still high now?Isn't it another coincidence the solar wind/EEP dropped out below 300-350lm/s for weeks. It don't take a rocket scientist to figure out when you hear terms like Angular momentum,Torque,and Global Wind what's really going on here. Carry on.

MJO weakening and crawling in the COD(Nov.28th-Dec.4th),right on time to me.No full pull to the Maritime because in my opinion the solar wind /CME rotation running real low. this cycle.Pattern relaxing as expected as i see a 594dm death ridge parked over S.Florida and most of the Gulf of Mexico this morning.Lag times have been real short with this cycle,almost cut in half so it might try to sneak out earlier than expected(Dec.6th-Dec-12th)so we'll see. It should come out and move till around Dec.26th,-Jan.1st but if the lag times continue to shorten everything gets moved up(Dec.22nd-Dec.28th).My opinion is the whole solar wind field has been extremely low since about Oct.10th and the CME rotations have been much weaker. Dec.8th could be pivotal as a CME is forecasted to arrive.this could lock up the MJO if its strong and lasts a few days. Just my opinion.

Temps thru Nov.20th,cold month so far. GSP -6.2 HKY -6.2 AVL -4.1 RDU -6.6 GSO -6.4 CAE -6.4 CLT -5.1

Looks like the 12z Ukie is bringing that cutoff energy in the SW through here around day 6. Low right through the upstate of SC with good rain totals,0z Euro cuts the low through Ohio with rain as well.

MJO re emerging in the W.Pacific right on time(Nov.11-16th)with a big Arctic front entering the eastern US.Still think it keeps moving till around Nov.28th-Dec.4th into phase7,8,1,2 but as low as the solar wind has been this cycle I'd lean closer to early December but we'll see. MJO should stall,weaken.or move to Maritime around Nov.28th-Dec.4th.There may be a relaxing of the pattern around and a bit after then then but the MJO should re emerge around Dec.6th-Dec.12th.December can be tricky if we get unexpected solar wind flareups like last year which in my opinion locked up the MJO in a warm phase longer than expected. Also I'm watching the QBO closely,if that flips let's just say watch out. Just my opinion.

Temps thru Nov.10th.Cold month so far and what's more shocking is CLT NOT in the lead for the first time in 6 months. GSP -6.0 HKY -6.2 AVL -4.6 RDU -5.3 GSO -5.2 CAE -4.5 CLT -4.7

Good job Grit,I enjoy reading your analysis and opinions.

Looks like the Ukie is going for a coastal Friday/Saturday.Cutoff looks around I-85 south but that looks cold and wet if it's right. GFS has nothing,.

MJO moving into Maritime right on time(Nov.2nd-Nov 7th)with a slight stall forecasted.Still think it emerges sometime Nov.11th-Nov.16th I'm leaning closer to Nov.11th into the Western Pacific/West.Hem.Warm spell looks brief though this week. When it does come out it should keep moving till around Nov.28-Dec.4th when the next sun/solar wind rotation occurs.Could be a cold month id it's in phase 7,8,1,and 2. Just my opinion.

Final October temps and no surprise CLT wins again. GSP +4.9 HKY +4.7 AVL +5.1 RDU +4.6 GSO +4.7 CAE +6.0 AND CLT +6.8

79.3 with a dp of 70 today,crashing down to 54.8 with a dp of 50 now.Pretty big flip in airmasses in an hour or so.2.43'' storm total from yesterday. Windshields and windows on my truck and car instantly fogged up,I don't think I've seen that except maybe a few times before.

Sometimes you just gotta shake your head.Lows this morning for example. GSP 57.2 HKY 57.0 AVL 50.0 RDU 55.0 GSO 59.0 CAE 55.4 AND CLT 64.0

Temps thru Oct.20th. GSP +5.2 HKY +4.9 AVL +5.8 RDU +3.7 GSO +4.3 CAE +5.9 AND CLT +6.2

My opinion is the MJO will keep moving till sometime around Nov.2nd-Nov.7th and then weaken or move to the Maritime.It should re emerge sometime around Nov.11th-Nov.16th meaning the first half of November might be warmer so we'll see.

1.85'' here and no water standing anywhere

Just looking at the early 0z HRRR,someone is going to get clocked in the Upstate/W.Piedmont/or in Central NC if it's right.Wherever that heavy rain band sets up I see a couple 3''-4'' lollipops in there.

12z Euro looks like the 3km NAM with better rain further NW.GFS and Ukie have that sharp cuttoff around I-85.

12z Ukie is bringing the hammer Sunday for eastern parts of NC/SC.Gulf low right up the coast.

Last couple HRRR runs looking better for the GSP -CLT-GSO-RDU corrider putting down .75'' -1.00'' in 8 to 18 hours.Sharp cutoff on both sides with only a few tenths so we'll see how it goes.

October temps thru the first 10 days,and look at that CLT in the lead as usual. GSP +9.4 HKY +9.3 AVL +9.7 RDU +7.8 GSO +8.5 CAE +10.0 AND CLT +11.0

12z Euro delivers,ticking totals further NW.