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mattinpa

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Everything posted by mattinpa

  1. mattinpa
    Lull in the storm in Royersford, maybe 4” on the ground? Expecting better returns soon.
  2. mattinpa
    They have a foot for the city and more N&W. You have to go to extreme SE PA to get under a foot.
  3. mattinpa
    Yes! Those snow maps should look great when they come out.
  4. mattinpa
    Were there any changes on the 18z Euro?
  5. mattinpa
    Weenie handbook chapter 1 section 1 paragraph 3 - always hug the model that gives the most snow IMBY.
  6. mattinpa
    I’d say maybe split the difference but definitely not going full NAM.
  7. mattinpa
    That’s very good news
  8. mattinpa
    Well it was right with the gloomier outlook for some with the December storm, so yes there’s a little nervousness. But I don’t think I will change my 12+ inches call unless there are further changes. The HRRR isn’t in good range yet for when the transfer comes.
  9. mattinpa
    Only the NAM has it that far NE as far as I know.
  10. mattinpa
    Any details? Seriously I would throw it out. The others would have trended by now if the NAM had a decent chance of being right.
  11. mattinpa
    Please don’t worry now. The best snow will be tomorrow when the coastal gets going.
  12. mattinpa
    GFS just sits there off the coast of DE for a long time. Should be good.
  13. mattinpa
    So you do feel that the NAM is too low. We can definitely agree then.
  14. mattinpa
    But I think you have to go to the other models when they are all so different than the NAM. I really don’t expect only 3-6” here.
  15. mattinpa
    Oh my! That made me forget about the NAM quickly.
  16. mattinpa
    Sounds colder and may be beginning to get an idea. Won’t worry if the rest of 0z is still super.
  17. mattinpa
    Great list but could you put in a Montgomery County location?
  18. mattinpa
    And Montgomery County looking good for 12+ inches. This should be the best kind of storm where there are good totals region wide.
  19. mattinpa
    This post from the MA forum really says it all: “Use the NAMs the way they’re supposed to be used. And nailing the precise physics of coastal transfer, cyclogenesis, and cold conveyor belt development is not it”
  20. mattinpa
    So everything looks on track at 12z so far. Heard the GFS was a bit low on QPF, though. Is there a snow map for it?
  21. mattinpa
    Yes it is better for a lot - DC gets a better thump and there is less mixing in my region. But NYC really makes out on this run.
  22. mattinpa
    It looks warmer than other guidance but definitely not north of 6z. Maybe a little south.
  23. mattinpa
    Guess there’s always a chance it will be one of those fairly rare storms where all the models sniffed it out, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro did that.
  24. mattinpa
    I did because it was pointed out. I don’t see much of a question there though, lol. Huge storm on the run.
  25. mattinpa
    Just incredible! The only negative is I don’t know if that run will be matched again for this storm.
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