mattinpa
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Everything posted by mattinpa
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And Montgomery County looking good for 12+ inches. This should be the best kind of storm where there are good totals region wide.
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This post from the MA forum really says it all: “Use the NAMs the way they’re supposed to be used. And nailing the precise physics of coastal transfer, cyclogenesis, and cold conveyor belt development is not it”
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So everything looks on track at 12z so far. Heard the GFS was a bit low on QPF, though. Is there a snow map for it?
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Yes it is better for a lot - DC gets a better thump and there is less mixing in my region. But NYC really makes out on this run.
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It looks warmer than other guidance but definitely not north of 6z. Maybe a little south.
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Guess there’s always a chance it will be one of those fairly rare storms where all the models sniffed it out, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro did that.
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I did because it was pointed out. I don’t see much of a question there though, lol. Huge storm on the run.
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Just incredible! The only negative is I don’t know if that run will be matched again for this storm.
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Yes it hits the whole region with 7-14”!
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Thanks. Looks like shaft line goes right through my area.
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Do you know where the shaft line sets up on the RGEM?
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Looking better for sure
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But can’t they still tell us if the GFS might have been a little south/east? It doesn’t take much change to make a difference here.
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Someone in the NYC forum said GFS ensembles are west. Anyway looks good for at least 4-6” but depending on banding and location of transfer, we still could get 12+”.
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It just had to send me to sleep on a sour note, lol.
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Thanks MJO812 for helping out not only here but in the Philly forum as well. The Euro can make this a unanimous night.
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Thank you for all you do and providing a different perspective on all of this.
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That’s why I kind of liked when the Euro ran twice. More chance now for jumping off, lol. I think 0z tonight through 0z tomorrow will be telling; models are still getting a handle on this.
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Weakness is more of an issue than location, but it is still long duration and significant. Seems we have multiple ways to get a good storm.
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Wish I could lock this in right now!
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Thanks for all the play by play. Ukie is on its own.
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How much more south? That was the concern with the Ukie.
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Thanks - I didn’t remember the individual Ukie runs for this storm. Don from the NYC forum also says it can be a volatile model.
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That actually concerns me more than the GFS being the outlier. But if the Euro holds serve, I will feel better about the Ukie being a fluke run.
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Snow amounts like the GFS or more?
