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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    Took another jog to the WSW, man it really wants to find away around those mountains, but it can't and will have to make the leap at some point.. My Guess is the eyewall will try to funnel through the saddle point in the middle, while the center passes over the south end.
  2. Amped
    The east side of the island is where most of the population is.
  3. Amped
    Almost the exact same pressure and wind speed as Andrew.
  4. Amped
    Those raw T numbers really nailed it.
  5. Amped
    If Wilma dropped 50mb in 6 hr this easily did 30mb. Most likely a cat 5 sub 920.
  6. Amped
    I have been to Dominica, the roads and most of the infrastructure are very poor quality. Unless they've rebuilt everything since 2001, it's not going to stand up.
  7. Amped
    Only a 7 knot boost for rapid intensification? I would have upped it to just shy of cat 5
  8. Amped
    Raw T 6.7, probably around 130kts. Gotta hate those 1.3T/6hr constraints during RI.
  9. Amped
    Euro kicks it OTS because of Jose. GFS kicks it OTS because the gulf coast troff won't go negative. That is the oddest looking Sat presentation I've ever seen. Looks like an apple.
  10. Amped
    Swatted away from the SE coast this run.
  11. Amped
    Call Maybe premature but I think I can see the outline of an eye on goes 16.
  12. Amped
    Radar goes 16 show a larger eyewall trying to form. They are now in good agreement. Centers still look misaligned, the dominant one is to E on the NE side of the CDO.
  13. Amped
    Guadeloupe radar shows a the the eye trying to close off now even though I don't see it on goes16. Goes 16 does show several mesos circling the CDO though.
  14. Amped
    I am aware. However, the current steady trend of intensidication beats it already going through rapid intensification. Yes it could go close off and bomb out tonight/tomorrow. But just looking for positives and if it remains a slower intensification might not undergo RI until past those particular islands. Still a dangerous situation. Yeah, hopefully the next 27hrs isn't enough to get it up to 180mph, but you never know this season.
  15. Amped
    Wouldn't say that yet, a lot of storms start RI around 980mb. There best luck is if it forms a pinhole eye and sneaks between Islands.
  16. Amped
  17. Amped
    CDO has formed and improved nicely the past few hours. Recon might find something near 980 and close to hurricane force on the next pass. Still no signs of an eye.
  18. Amped
    Feeder band coming up from the south now established. Should limit future dry air problems.
  19. Amped
    Bad initialization on the GFS. 12.3 N is the advisory position 18z GFS has 12.9N at 6hrs. The 12z GFS was actually much better and had it around 12.3 north at the same time.
  20. Amped
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 12.3N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 13.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 13.9N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 14.6N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 15.2N 59.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 16.5N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.9N 65.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 19.5N 68.6W 95 KT 110 MPH Increased quite a bit from the last advisory.
  21. Amped
    The center is well south of where NHC has it. Should probably be a TS at the 5pm.
  22. Amped
    Just when I thought this was the Irene of the WPAC, somehow it has made a comeback while skimming the coast. Very nice looking for a CAT1
  23. Amped
    12z Gfs and Euro went west and stronger. Going to be a good chase for josh. Possible sub 930 landfall.
  24. Amped
    Not supposed to stay small. Ecmwf and Gfs now make landfall next Monday/Tuesday.
  25. Amped
    Certainly possible, Going to be nuts in the west pac, even if it doesn't make landfall.
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