Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Models combining Gamma and 92L into the ultimate slopgyre
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THe GFS and GEFS shifted closer to Florida with the Track. Most of the FL impact members are 980-1005mb which would be a TS or Cat1 Also, there is some pretty strong cape to the east of this disturbance. Likely there's going to be some impressive convective blobs which will complicate the forecast.
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GFS Para is the new 3km NAM, it's done this all season.
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Would not give up on it this yet. The main issues preventing it from taking off are land interaction and competing centers. On the plus side there's low shear and a potential stall over the warmest waters in the basin. Too soon to tell 4 days out. Edit: It was mostly cynical troll Ldub23 writing it off.
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GFS has a 971mb Cat2 making landfall just north of BE in MX. Still an ongoing trend north with the track every run. I think it may eventually end up taking a Charlie like track across Cuba into SW FL.
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Depends what you consider western Sandy and Mathew made it to eastern Cuba Otto November 2016 hit Panama Rina 2011 was near the Yucatan. and in October.
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There is a trend, slowly but surely.
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ECMWF and CMC organize something in the western gulf but at different times.
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GFS just north of Barbados this run. Think it goes right into Dominica but it's hard to tell. Also it's showing a Mathew like blob to the east of the storm for those interested in convective blobs. This time it eventually develops into another Tropical Storm.
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12z euro was the most disappointing run of the seasons it showed 4 tcs all duds and all fish storms. Lets watch sheared messes dance around the central Atlantic, before inevitably recurving towards Europe. Sounds like lots of fun.
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Usually a sign of something bad when you see a storm in that in that wind shear pattern this time of year. Looks similar to Maria and Irma. Probably would be way stronger than the 956mb pressure shown if a similar setup verified. 00z GFS and CMC are almost in the same spot with this at hr 210.
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No US landfalls through day 10.
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A couple GEFS Para members have something developing near NW Cuba and moving into west FL next week. One has a 957mb low moving into Tampa. There is some pretty low shear in the area if an initial disturbance can get going. That area is the only threat to the US within the next 7-10 days, anything else is further away.
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Really not seeing anything I'm that impressed with. Take away storms above 1000mb and we really don't have that many storms this season and none in upcoming model forecasts.
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Starting in the next 24 hrs, Models are showing a big plume of moisture coming north from the Amazon (French Guina, Guyana, Suriname ) into the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean. This should give the AEWs moving through the area a boost during the next 7 days while it lasts.
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GFS closes off a 700mb and 850mb low. For some reason it doesn't develop until the Yucatan. Any shear is out of the northeast. ICON CMC and UKMET are all more bullish on this system than the GFS and Euro. I think there's a chance every model is too conservative on this wave. It could easily be a major hurricane by the central Caribbean given the conditions.
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Significant Severe Weather Event Possible Thursday, August 27, 2020
Amped replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Westport got hit pretty bad again. Had quite a bit of wind and hail. -
CMC trying to get something going east of the lesser Antilles also day 2. It's not holding together very well, but it's in an area of low shear and high pwat, so I see no obvious reason for it to fall apart.
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Euro is ugly CMC UKMET NAVGEM ICON all like the idea of a Bahamas/FL storm and a west central gulf storm day 6-7, so I'm not totally buying the Euro. I'd actually be a little surprised if the favorable conditions yielded nothing.
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97L declared. GFS now shows something heading into the NE Yucatan late week. How strong it gets will depend on how quickly it gets going and how well it avoids land.
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GEPS FTW
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Finally some sub 1000mb lows in the basin on the CMC at hr 180.
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I am wondering how Carolina shelf waters are so warm after Isaias. Maybe that's an error or they changed the calculation? There's TCHP along the coast in a lot of other places where there wasn't much before 2020
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There some opportunity for a storm in the SE Caribbean next week if something can get going south of the shear and north of the south american coast. Felix was able to do this in a similar pattern but there isn't much room.
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I'm never impressed with lots of low quality struggling Tropical Storms. I don't see anything on models in the next 15 days that looks exciting. Here are some examples of 60 day stretches in the Atlantic that produced at least 4 major hurricanes. I will consider the upcoming hyped "Active Period" in the Atlantic a bust if it can't do it. 7 of the past 25 years have. AUG-SEPT 1995 4 Major hurricanes AUG-SEPT 1996 4 Major hurricanes AUG-SEPT 1999 4 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2004 6 Major Hurricanes SEPT-OCT 2005 4 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2010 5 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2017 5 Major Hurricanes
