Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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GFS gets down to 978mb in the central gulf, but the northern gulf shear wall kicks in full force this run. Looks like 40-50 knots as it's making landfall in SE LA. Going to get shredded. Actually hoping for a similar scenario. Just make it a Cat5 in the southern gulf then weaken it back to a TS before landfall.
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Over the warmest waters of the basin for the next 60 hrs. It would easily make cat 5 if it was already a 995mb TS. Too bad it's a 1007mb swirl thats going to need another 24-36hrs to get it's act together.
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GFS and CMC both make landfall in S MS. However they differ on timing, intensity and whether it's Delta or Gamma making landfall. One of the more interesting model wars I've seen.
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Gamma did not watch out for Delta this GFS run.
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Models combining Gamma and 92L into the ultimate slopgyre
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THe GFS and GEFS shifted closer to Florida with the Track. Most of the FL impact members are 980-1005mb which would be a TS or Cat1 Also, there is some pretty strong cape to the east of this disturbance. Likely there's going to be some impressive convective blobs which will complicate the forecast.
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GFS Para is the new 3km NAM, it's done this all season.
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Would not give up on it this yet. The main issues preventing it from taking off are land interaction and competing centers. On the plus side there's low shear and a potential stall over the warmest waters in the basin. Too soon to tell 4 days out. Edit: It was mostly cynical troll Ldub23 writing it off.
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GFS has a 971mb Cat2 making landfall just north of BE in MX. Still an ongoing trend north with the track every run. I think it may eventually end up taking a Charlie like track across Cuba into SW FL.
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Depends what you consider western Sandy and Mathew made it to eastern Cuba Otto November 2016 hit Panama Rina 2011 was near the Yucatan. and in October.
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There is a trend, slowly but surely.
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Beta not going to be a winddstorm. Gotta watch that feeder band over LA. It's forecast to stall for 60 hrs. It might be able to produce a little more than the 6-10" of rain the GFS is showing.
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ECMWF also came way northeast with it's track. Looks like landfall near Port O'connor. Edit. So much for stalling along the coast stalls over San Antonio this run.
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CMC with an even wackier solution than 12z. Stalls near TX then moves Southeast and stalls near the Yucatan, the starts moving back NW again.
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I'll consider it part of the basin when a storm comes out of there and makes landfall in Florida. It's connected to the Atlantic, but so it the Pacific.
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CMC shows even more of a 2020 solution. Stalls 20 Miles off the TX coast for 3 days, then hits Florida.
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Here's a loop of the Euro not nailing Sally. It just waited to long to make it's move.
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Did Nola even get a drop of rain?
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Everyone's gonna miss Teddy strengthening to a high end CAT 4 by late tomorrow.
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ECMWF and CMC organize something in the western gulf but at different times.
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GFS just north of Barbados this run. Think it goes right into Dominica but it's hard to tell. Also it's showing a Mathew like blob to the east of the storm for those interested in convective blobs. This time it eventually develops into another Tropical Storm.
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12z euro was the most disappointing run of the seasons it showed 4 tcs all duds and all fish storms. Lets watch sheared messes dance around the central Atlantic, before inevitably recurving towards Europe. Sounds like lots of fun.
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Usually a sign of something bad when you see a storm in that in that wind shear pattern this time of year. Looks similar to Maria and Irma. Probably would be way stronger than the 956mb pressure shown if a similar setup verified. 00z GFS and CMC are almost in the same spot with this at hr 210.
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No US landfalls through day 10.
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Seems like Denver usually got snow in September back in the 90s. 9/8 is a little early. I think the record earliest is 9/2.
