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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    GFS closes off a 700mb and 850mb low. For some reason it doesn't develop until the Yucatan. Any shear is out of the northeast. ICON CMC and UKMET are all more bullish on this system than the GFS and Euro. I think there's a chance every model is too conservative on this wave. It could easily be a major hurricane by the central Caribbean given the conditions.
  2. Amped
    Westport got hit pretty bad again. Had quite a bit of wind and hail.
  3. Amped
    CMC trying to get something going east of the lesser Antilles also day 2. It's not holding together very well, but it's in an area of low shear and high pwat, so I see no obvious reason for it to fall apart.
  4. Amped
    Euro is ugly CMC UKMET NAVGEM ICON all like the idea of a Bahamas/FL storm and a west central gulf storm day 6-7, so I'm not totally buying the Euro. I'd actually be a little surprised if the favorable conditions yielded nothing.
  5. Amped
    97L declared. GFS now shows something heading into the NE Yucatan late week. How strong it gets will depend on how quickly it gets going and how well it avoids land.
  6. Amped
    GEPS FTW
  7. Amped
    Finally some sub 1000mb lows in the basin on the CMC at hr 180.
  8. Amped
    I am wondering how Carolina shelf waters are so warm after Isaias. Maybe that's an error or they changed the calculation? There's TCHP along the coast in a lot of other places where there wasn't much before 2020
  9. Amped
    There some opportunity for a storm in the SE Caribbean next week if something can get going south of the shear and north of the south american coast. Felix was able to do this in a similar pattern but there isn't much room.
  10. Amped
    I'm never impressed with lots of low quality struggling Tropical Storms. I don't see anything on models in the next 15 days that looks exciting. Here are some examples of 60 day stretches in the Atlantic that produced at least 4 major hurricanes. I will consider the upcoming hyped "Active Period" in the Atlantic a bust if it can't do it. 7 of the past 25 years have. AUG-SEPT 1995 4 Major hurricanes AUG-SEPT 1996 4 Major hurricanes AUG-SEPT 1999 4 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2004 6 Major Hurricanes SEPT-OCT 2005 4 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2010 5 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2017 5 Major Hurricanes
  11. Amped
    HRDPS had a line through Chicago just about every run.
  12. Amped
    Possibly the 49mph gust that took Danbury off the grid for the past week.
  13. Amped
    Looks like the lines did merge, this was keeping the mesovotex from lifting north. Not good for Chicago,
  14. Amped
    They put out a PDS watch. Don't see how the high risk designation does much to improve the the threat communication.
  15. Amped
    Another MCS is forming to the north of the main one. There maybe a merger in N central IL.
  16. Amped
    The 40 days between Aug 20- Oct1 appears to be the main stretch in hurricane season. Almost every active season has had above average ACE in that stretch. Really can't say much about the season by what happens before then.
  17. Amped
    I can't see the center, but it's likely way west of the forecast track
  18. Amped
    Looks like it's snowing all the way down to the coast in Fairfield/ Bridgeport.
  19. Amped
    Looks like some decent rates in Albany.
  20. Amped
    Imagine if there was a bulls ass that could talk, and screamed "Hey everyone look at me" every 2 minutes. You think people would catch on and stop falling for it after 70+ years but apparently sometimes they don't.
  21. Amped
    I hope a hurricane permanently stalls off the coast so we can hallucinate on which way it's moving 365 days a year.
  22. Amped
    Somebody smash the HMON and the HWRF now. Their track outputs are not supposed to be taken seriously.
  23. Amped
    TV Mets are going to have to start calling "the eye" of the Dorian "The Pupil" so they don't confuse the public.
  24. Amped
    Freeport, spends 24hrs in the eye on the Euro. Plenty of buildings to destroy there, I don't know how well built they are, but they are going to need to hold up to CAT 4/5
  25. Amped
    As long as the 3km NAM agrees
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