Amped

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20171021/k10011185351000.html Transated 70 m/s= 157mph . Also yesterdays 12z Euro 24hrs had 926mb. Todays 12z was initialized to 956mb. Euro track goes right up Tokyo bay, GFS is west of it.

EPS mean is almost right over Tokyo. Going to get a huge surge up the bay with that track. This thing probably has a lot more integrated kinnetic energy than Isabel or Sandy.

This is going to get pretty ugly for Tokyo and a lot of Japan, hopefully they are well prepared.

So it was a bit underdone here.

Not sure how -75.9, +19.5 is only a T6.3.

Looks like Lan finally got it's bandwidth upgraded.

You nailed it. That has been the issue. Lam developed as multiple surface circulations formed within a large surface trough. Over the past week, surface vorts have been competing within the large gyre. When you have that scenario, deep convection within one vort can suppress convection or create subsidence that affects parts of the overall core structure. However, it looks like a deep band is getting established and a dominate vortex will take over. The SSTs are plenty warm up to southern Japan. It may not reach Super Typhoon status, but I think it will definitly be a Cat 3/4 before the the typhoon nears Japan. Perhaps holds intensity enough to landfall as a 3. Latest microwave pass says big but healthy. HWRF shows a decent 36hrs ahead. Edit: Also you can see a second band on Himawari 8 rapidly making the core symmetric. Probably bombs away for real this time. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=himawari-8/himawari-8_band_03_sector_04&width=1020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=48&loop_speed_ms=100

I really don't know whats killing convection on the north side, there doesn't seem to be enough shear or dry air to account for that look. Maybe the storms just too damn big. A 200mb right entrance region should start aiding it in about 24hrs, so pressure falls can resume despite the crappy structure.

More convection on the NW side now. Should start to intensify rapidly. Euro would be a major hit for nearly all of Japan.

Microcane? Nah to make up for the missing storms we'll just have one thats as big as all of them combined.

I was surprised the Keywest radar survived Irma.

Subjective look at the latest goes 16 suggests, it's looking very Annu like Isabel.

Hurricanes rarely recover a pinhole eye after interaction with terrain. If they do recover like Hugo, or Wilma, they have a much larger eye.

Don't know whats going on but Marias eye shape has improved rapidly in the last 30 minutes. Definitely strengthening again.

Going to look good on Satellite even if it misses.

Good 25 miles difference between NHC and the worst case scenario direct hit for San Juan.

People called Irma Harvey, now they are making up for it by calling Maria Irma.

I didn't think Dominica's housing would withstand CAT1 winds. It is built on the side of a mountain in a jungle with 2 way streets only wide enough for 1 car and no guardrails. Lots of houses look like huts.

Worst case for San jaun is the eye skims the north coast like Irma in Cuba. Mountains will obstruct the wind a bit otherwise but it will still be pretty bad.

Now the eye is going to need to drop back south or shoot out due west for the wind trajectory to work. Those west winds hitting the island are going to have to curl.

The island slowed the storm down a lot. 3 hrs ago I thought it'd be halfway to PR by now.

I couldn't understand them when they were on the air.

Much larger eyewall forming. Looks like air is traveling around the island to avoid the terrain. This eye may try to contract when it gets to the other side.

Goes 16 must have some sort of a delay cause the radar already has the center on land.

Recon not going to make it in time. Center looks onshore according to radar.