The 40 days between Aug 20- Oct1 appears to be the main stretch in hurricane season. Almost every active season has had above average ACE in that stretch.
Really can't say much about the season by what happens before then.
Most of the CAM don't have storms in our are until well after 00z. Not the best time for tornados. NRN PA and NY get convection earlier in the day, they probably have a better chance.
A lot of thunder is better than we normally get with the synaptic system squall lines.. Usually it's indistinguishable from a gardener accidentally hitting the window with the hose for 10 seconds.
Imagine if there was a bulls ass that could talk, and screamed "Hey everyone look at me" every 2 minutes. You think people would catch on and stop falling for it after 70+ years but apparently sometimes they don't.
Freeport, spends 24hrs in the eye on the Euro. Plenty of buildings to destroy there, I don't know how well built they are, but they are going to need to hold up to CAT 4/5