Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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GFS fantasy land tracks right over our favorite FL town again.
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Funny I was in downtown Columbia all night and it didn't look like this. Maybe a tenth that bright.
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Never wanted a power outage so badly
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There's still a huge waterspout outbreak going on off Floridas east coast.
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Coming for Orlando and Daytona next.
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The rainband headed for Orlando later tonight. Hopefully the heaviest part misses to the north, but it does seem to be having a hard time advancing north on radar.
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I think it made landfall over the southern half of Longboat Key, which is mysteriously missing from the COD radar map.
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Got my "Eye of the storm" playlist ready.
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The eastern part of the eye is a couple frames away from Siesta Key
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The main rainband looks like it will pass directly over Tampa. Models were showing 10"-15" rainfall totals in that band.
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Modeling didn't do a bad job. The tornado threat was overlooked by a lot of people who were distracted with things like ERCs, Recon passes, ADT numbers, and nitpicking every run of every model.
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The north wobble might be starting to correct itself, it's back on course towards Bradenton/ Longboat key. Pretty much the consensus over the last couple days.
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On radar, it appears to be moving ENE pretty fast, you'd get landfall well before 10pm if you extrapolated it.
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The movement on radar has been pretty straight the last few hours, right along the NHC track towards Sarasota.
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It seems like it's further north and slower than most 12z guidance.
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The severe is overperforming so not a bust.
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Hmon and HWRF still have wind trajectories that look like they are sucking water out of the bay rather than pushing it in, and from this storm size/shape it would have to track way north through Port Richey for TB to get the maximum surge.
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Sorry gotta binge watch another 12-18hrs of Goes-16 porn.
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GFS looks like it's over Bradenton 6z Thursday.
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Not a good day for tech tycoon billionaires to have their luxury superyatches out there.
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It matches Hurricane Dean pretty well in size and intensity.
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The Adt page says 903mb 155kt. Accurate for once.
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That's every global model showing landfall within about 10 miles. Amazing agreement, this didn't used to happen. Even 10 years back models would have a much larger spread 36 hrs out.
