Snowstorms

Canada is NOT cold right now lol. Most major cities are experiencing record breaking warmth this December. Not even 2015 was this warm. And this is "our source region" for cold out east. Most places are near or above freezing. See forecasts below for this upcoming week. These cities, more than 90-95% of the time, experience a white Christmas or at the very least some decent cold which is no where to be found this year. If you scroll down you'll find the averages too and will note how incredibly warm it is. Calgary, AB: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-52_metric_e.html Edmonton, AB: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html Regina, SK: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html Saskatoon, SK: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html Winnipeg, MB https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html Thompson (north Manitoba) https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-34_metric_e.html Moosonee, ON (right by Hudson Bay) https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-113_metric_e.html

You can find all the climate data below for YYZ and Toronto (goes back to the 1800s). I also created an excel spreadsheet, that I update every month, with the monthly snowfall total and mean (DJF) temperature for YYZ that I'd happily share with you if you'd like. From June 2013 - present: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?StationID=51459 From 1937-June 2013 (YYZ): https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/monthly_data_e.html?timeframe=3&hlyRange=1953-01-01|2013-06-13&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-13&mlyRange=1937-01-01|2013-06-01&StationID=5097&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2022&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=pearson&time=LST&Month=1&Day=1&Year=2008 From 1840 - 2017: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/monthly_data_e.html?timeframe=3&hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2022&selRowPerPage=25&Line=4&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=toronto&Month=3&Day=1&Year=1936# LOOL, you're right. I agree he's definitely trolling. I think deep down he's just frustrated with the crappy start to this winter and I guess the last few winters. And I understand 1877, 1881, 1889 are top 5 right now. But once all is said and done, 2023 will likely be a top 5 or at the very least top 10 warm December for Detroit (given the forecasted temperatures for the next 5-10 days). Dec 2021 was also incredibly warm in Detroit too and 2019 is also up there too. So although Detroit experienced 3 warm Decembers in a period of 12 years, it's experienced 4 (top 5 or top 10ish) warm December's in 8 years and if extended back to 2011, then you find 2 more warm Decembers (2011, 2012). The point I'm trying to make is, these extreme or anomalous warm months or periods are happening more frequently now than they did 50+ years ago. In the same 12 years (2011-2023) vs (1877-1889), Detroit's experienced 6 really warm Decembers and a few slightly above average (2014, 2018, 2020). At this rate, December is slowly becoming a non-winter month lol which sucks because it's the shortest month of the year with the lowest sun angle.

Yeah nothing on the ground here in Toronto too. Had an inch yesterday but that melted this afternoon and expected to be in the mid 40s on Christmas.

Been following all these posts and I decided to take a look at the stats myself and just say a few things. For the record, I denied climate change for a long time or at least the severity of it. I looked at all the strong/super El Nino's since 1950 (using ONI) and looked at the monthly average for each month in Toronto. The 1981-2010 average is 28.1F for Toronto. The 1991-2020 average isn't out yet for us and I don't think it would be a good baseline to use when looking at winters pre 1980, anyways. When I look at this, two things stand out. One being the anomalous warmth in 2015 and 2023 when compared to other strong El Nino's and the other being the timing. You'd be hard pressed to find two potentially top 5 record warm December's in such a short amount of time (i.e., 8 years) in any other point in history. You might as well add in December 2021 in there because it was also another top 5 or top 10 warm December (for most of us). Now to add the icing on the cake. These two December's are looped in a string of warm Decembers that we've been experiencing since 2011. On a grander scale, it's obvious things are warming and we are seeing a lot more anomalous warmth than we did before. Hard to deny the truth at this point.

An entire month below freezing is rare, yes, but they can happen, at least for us here. The most recent being February 2015 where YYZ stayed below freezing the entire month (warmest day was 29F). In total we stayed below freezing for 37 straight days. From Jan 5 to Feb 12, 2011 we stayed below freezing with the exception of 3 days, but they were barely above freezing and only a for few hours too. Another recent one was Jan 14 to Feb 18, 2007. Only two minor days above freezing in that stretch but both were below 33F.

Was an amazing storm up here. We got between 13-20" coupled with thunder snow.

About 11" here. Nice paste job. One of the heaviest snows I've ever shovelled. The thunder snow last night was epic though.

YYZ reporting +SN and 0.2 mile visibility right now. Heard a lot of thunder earlier with over 25 strikes confirmed in the city. What a storm

rather sophisticated watch

All models are aligned for 12"+ for Toronto and surrounding areas. HRRR has peak snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour. With strong easterlies off the lake, we could definitely see blizzard like conditions.

I see a lot of (+)'s in there haha. But realistically I ain't just considering it on a trimonthly basis but also on a monthly scale. 2020-21 for the trimonth (DJF) was +0.3C but that doesn't paint the whole picture because Dec and Jan were warm. 2017-18 was cold, yes, but we torched like crazy in February. Ironically we did so in both Feb 2017 and 2016 too. Record warmth I might add. And now Feb 2023 is in there too. But also going back to this storm. Detroit could be in the jackpot zone. GFS has a rather robust FGEN band cutting through the area. Could potentially be the first 12"er in a while, no?

I think what he's saying is that; lately it feels a lot of the storms we've been seeing are marginal, at best. Yes sure Feb 2021 had impressive snow depths and a 2-week cold shot, but it was an incredibly warm winter outside of those few weeks. Ironically it came after another warm winter (19-20). And now obviously 2022-23 is warm too. Thats 3 in the last 4 years. If this trend continues towards a shift of warmer winters, we may start seeing more marginal scenarios or even worse (rain). And that's what we seem to be seeing with this storm and many others this winter.

Not big on snow cover eh?

If so, then I guess he wasn't really apologetic but was gaslighting and playing the victim card? I learned that when it comes to things like this, peoples views don't really change. But hey I don't really know him but for this particular situation, I don't condone it. I agree. I felt the same too. But as the saying goes, never judge a book by its cover right?

That'd be my reaction too. Kind of sickening. I'm 28 and for me personally, I wouldn't date any girl younger than 21-22 and that's on the low end. Anything younger and I don't even want to think about it or look at it.

really? that sounds like some r kelly shit. If you catch my drift.

Just over 4" here in Toronto. Had a brief period of +SN earlier, was impressive.

Climate change. Winters be getting warmer and shorter.

Wow, I didn't even know that. This torch is no joke here in Toronto too. Our average low right now is 12F and we've only hit 12F twice this whole winter and both times were during that Christmas outbreak. December still ended up well above average despite that 3-4 day Christmas outbreak. The Rideau canal, the longest skating rink in the world, has yet to open due to a lack of cold.

Exactly. When you shift the baseline, the warmth doesn't seem as pronounced or almost mute. But on the grand scale of things, averages aside, if you compare current winters to previous winters, you'd notice considerable differences. Chicago and many surrounding areas have warmed considerably. I know people like to talk about the 80's and how snowless they were. But a lot of them were cold winters. The warm winters we keep seeing year after year or the prolonged thaws, did happen in the past - yes, but not as frequently as they have been right now. I've been reading up on some of those Hadley cell expansion theories. To my understanding, La Nina's expand the Hadley cell. And in the past, I've read a few research papers that said in a warming world, you'd likely see more La Nina's than El Nino's, which may sound counterintuitive, but when you consider the expansion theories, it could make some sense. But it's still too early to form any conclusions. I'd like to see more work on this.

But at least Dec 2000 was cold and snowy unlike Dec 2022.

You do have a valid point. And thaws do happen almost ever winter. But my issue revolved around the longevity of those thaws, especially of late. When you go back 30+ years ago, thaws like this were never this common or frequent. December has been a shit show lately and January no different. See below; 2023 - warm so far 2021 - warm (came off a warm Dec) 2020 - warm 2019 - 1st half was warm (came off a warm Dec) 2018 - couple thaws in one month 2017 - warm 2013 and 2012 - warm A couple nice cold ones from 2009 to 2011 but it doesn't undermine the warm January's from 2006 to 2008 especially Jan 2006. Based on the data @michsnowfreak provided, many places around the lower Great Lakes haven't warmed in the last 50-100+ years. So I guess from your perspective it may not seem like much. But for those of us further east or further north (like Wisconsin), the warmth has been more significant and pronounced, so it's easy for me to make that assumption. And that assumption is climate change.

I don't think snow is a big issue. It can still snow with marginal temperatures and 2019-20 was a perfect example of that. I think the bigger concern is the warm winters we keep seeing year after year. For example, both Toronto and NYC have warmed 3-5F in the last 100 years. I'm not sure about Chicago or Detroit but I'm sure they've both warmed up too. A 2 or 3 week cold snap doesn't or shouldn't undermine the insanely above average temperatures outside of those 2-3 weeks. A month of winter with 2 months of extended Fall like conditions is not normal by any means. Winter is, for most of us, 3-4 months long. I think it's time to accept seeing one cold winter in a slew of warm winters may become the new norm. Unless this is just a cycle and it'll break off at some point.

We might need a 82-83 or 97-98 type of Nino to reset the Pacific. 02-03 was still only moderate. And then take a break from Nina's, if possible, thereafter. But I agree those 50's weak Nino's were terrible. I'll take 02-03 any day. Solid winter all around and was much needed after that diabolical 01-02. We got 60" that winter, well above average.