Snowstorms

@StormfanaticInd + other Indy posters death band.

In under 3 minutes too eh? Nice

That's pretty crazy. How much do they normally average per winter?

I agree. It's interesting to say the least. Only thing I’m concerned about is the progressive flow. The northern stream doesn’t really dig further south and like our current storm, it’s all southern stream. Nonetheless, it could be a decent overrunning event with some STJ influence too. We’ll know more as the week progresses and when it’s sampled come Thursday night.

I agree. Most of the snow should fall within a few hours with the leading FGEN band. Looks favorable for some good dendrites too. Could be some lake enhancement from Mississauga to Oakville. After such a quiet and boring month, even 4” will feel like a winter wonderland. Nice to see you back again.

For the GTA, it doesn't look anything exceptional like you guys in IA and IL. Have fun! Looking at the 3KM NAM, most of the snow should fall in a relatively short time frame along a fast moving FGEN band. The storm begins weakening rapidly as it move towards our area, so that FGEN band is our only window of opportunity. Potential is there for some lake enhancement but more towards Oakville-Hamilton. I'd go with 1-2" for Toronto proper, for now.

That's a long drive if you do it regularly. I don't mind road trips, but they can be tiring sometimes. Bring your New England magic this way so Chicago-Detroit-Toronto can get a 12"+ storm.

His last thread was a win for my area . I have faith in him.

Some positive trends for our area. Northern vort is definitely further north and the west based -NAO should help to minimize any crazy northward trend with the main southern energy and help it to amplify. One of the main things that intrigues me is the availability of moisture should the southern energy have room to strengthen with some added STJ influence. Not completely sold out for our area yet as I would like to see some more positive trends. Should get a clearer picture by tomorrow 12Z runs.

Have yet to dip below 14F this season. We could tomorrow night which I believe would be the latest on record. Terrible. Even 2011-12 or 2001-02 dipped below 14F by this time.

Well-deserved for the Chicago crew considering the snow drought y'all are experiencing.

Yeah, I'll take the UKIE please.

Not the winter I expected. Endless cloudy days with zero precip on top of this stay at home order. You add them together and it equals boredom and depression. If we go all of Jan without a single snowstorm, I'm all in for Spring. It's Jan 15 and YYZ has yet to go below -10C lol. Just ridiculous at how warm it’s been.

Our avg high and low on March 31 is 45F and 28F, respectively. But I agree, it can be tough to get warm temperatures especially near the Lake when spring starts up. YYZ didn't even crack 60F last April which has never happened before since records began. To make it even worse we didn't even crack 70F till May 22 lol. Now that's rare but it goes to show you how hard it can be to get warmth to cross the escarpment in spring.

Unless we get a blizzard of 99 and/or Feb is historic, nothing and I mean nothing, can redeem this shitty month. About to be 2 weeks of literally nada in the heart of winter.

Mid Jan 2019 to early March 2019 was epic, at least locally. Nearly 50" in that 6-7 week stretch. How did your area fare?

I agree. Would be the best pattern for you especially given the trough orientation. Only 2% ice cover right now with the Lakes running exceptionally warm. I think a big lake effect outbreak could be on tap after next weekend. You deserve it after that shitty December.

Just a bunch of strung out clippers lacking moisture with zero southern stream influence. Terrible pattern. It's too progressive.

Strong easterlies have dominated across the ENSO region primarily near the dateline and are expected to continue past mid-Jan which has driven the SOI to 2010-11 levels. So yes, for the moment it's expected to strengthen. Subsurface anomalies continue to remain cold. Wouldn't be surprised to see a second peak. Thus far, the La Nina hasn't fully coupled with the atmosphere but there's growing evidence the ridge building across the west will slowly retrograde towards the Aleutians come February, which is more typical of a Nina. Global AAM has finally gone negative so we’ll see if that holds over the next few weeks. February is certainly going to be a strong gradient month with the La Nina fighting to take control of the pattern and impressive polar blocking. Feeling optimistic about February, it could be our best month.

You're right. There have been many instances where you and I have cashed in where the rest of the sub didn't. The upcoming pattern doesn't look favorable for clippers with a relatively weak polar jet. Need more Nina influence on the pattern. It's mixed between Nino and Nina right now. But one thing is for sure, there's potential for phased storms in the upcoming pattern. Hopefully we get a redux of a classic great lakes winter storm.

Wow, nice picture. You're lucky. The last time we had a sunny clear day like that was Dec 18 and before that Dec 6 lol. Terrible climo.

Was on top of Detroit 2 runs ago. Still though, potential is there for a partially phased storm but I’m not buying into anything yet.

If that PNA ridge in the west can stay off the coast rather than poking into AB, we can see storms across our region. Otherwise the pattern is more favorable for the east coast given the strong west based -NAO. Would be nice if we had typical Nina like ridging towards AK and the Aleutians. Most of Western Canada continues to torch and that's never good for winter storms or sustained cold. But until Jan 15, a pretty boring stretch inbound.

Went for a drive in the area and snapped this pic yesterday. Would've been nice if the small lake was frozen but without any sustained cold, that ain't happening.

My 2 day snow total is 3.8" with 2.5" coming last night. Not bad. We've had snow on the ground since Christmas eve. Our longest stretch so far lol.