Snowstorms

How much did Detroit get in 1995-96?

Yes give me those pre 2015 ENSO winters. Except 21-22, its just been "recycled" garbage cold and snow patterns. Since Jan 2019, we've legit only had 2 actual winter months that felt like winter (Feb 2021, Jan 2022). You can add 2.5 more months to that going back to 2015.

EC issued a weather advisory for the GTA. Potential for 2-4" thanks to lake enhancement. But maybe higher or lower depending on where the band sets up and its strength. Areas near Oakville and Hamilton may see upwards of 15-20cm (6-8").

not until we get that fugly vortex outta Alaska.

I don't mind a -ENSO pattern if its the primary driver of the pattern and if the SE ridge isn't over amplified. But it's been annoying over the last couple of years. Just endless warmth. Could the +AMO be amplifying it? It has yet to shift to -ve after 30 years now. I prefer a poleward Aleutian ridge than an overpowered Aleutian low that floods most of NA with warmth. A -ENSO offers more opportunities for cold and snow threats thanks to an active clipper pattern. But I understand for people further south esp the Mid-Atlantic, they may feel strongly against a -ENSO pattern.

I mean there's no questionable doubt that winters have warmed in the past 150 years. The more alarming trend has been the lack of any sustained winter conditions especially in the last 10 years. Our winters feel like they've been reduced to 2-3 intense weeks. And I don't think the -PDO is the driving factor for that. The PDO was primarily negative from 1998-2014 and we saw a handful of cold winter months. Every Nina December from 2000-2017 except 2011 featured sustained cold/snow for most everyone. Quite the opposite with every Nina since 2020. The 60's and 70's were likely cooler than other decades with the -PDO/AMO combination plus other factors. That continued into the mid 80's with the ongoing -AMO which may have muted any SE ridge.

Agreed. Plus the lack of sea ice in Hudson Bay and near Baffin Island is really concerning. Doesn't bode well for any sustained cold in the East anytime soon. And a 5 day cool down later this week won't help with the torch expected later next week. Our best chance for any sustained winter is likely mid Jan.

And the trend of warm Decembers continues. 7 years now since our last cold December. With the exception of 3 years between 1995-2017, every La Nina December was cold.

We got 3" with that clipper in early December but everything else was lake effect too. The 1991-2020 average is arguably more warmer than the 1981-2010 average. Env Canada hasn't updated the 1991-2010 average on their page yet. I think the old 1981-2010 average in DTW is 29.9 vs 33.3 right now. I think the low December snow and warm Decembers since 2015 can be partly attributed to climate change. Unless this pattern is cyclical, but that remains to be seen. But given the amount of La Nina's since 2017 and the lack of cold/snow, it is highly unusual.

Maybe for you guys further west it's been a cold December, but not the same story for us here further east. YYZ is running 3 degrees above normal for Dec. When the cold source is from Hudson Bay and Quebec than western Canada, that's when we average cold. But aside from the temperatures, it's been underwhelming outside the snowbelt regions. That seems to be the trend since 2017 and highly unusual for typical La Nina's. Wish we could experience the Decembers from 2000-2017 again. Are the averages on this from 1981-2010 or 1991-2020? https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=dtx

The downfall of December needs to be studied.

Yeah we've definitely had a lot of brown Christmases the last 10 years. Only 4 winters since 2014 here. The 4th was just under an inch so technically 3.

Would be nice if Nina Decembers could act like typical Nina Decembers. The last time we had a typical Nina December was 2017. From 2000 - 2019, only 2011 was a warm Nina December.

Maybe the La Nina is finally doing what it would in the past. Cool the oceans and planet.

It's close to Bethlehem. Also really nice during Christmas.

I avoid Time Square every time I go, too crowded for me. Expensive restaurants are just a waste of money. I heard there is a home alone live show but I don't know where.

Off topic, but is NYC worth visiting pre Christmas or is that all just movie/social media hype? And why are hotels in Manhattan so expensive rn.

The first week of Dec 2008 was pretty cold too. So definitely been a long time since we've seen a cold start to December, so it's nice. Although, at least locally, 2010, 2008, and 2002 were more colder.

The Georgian Bay band was a little surprise. We don't see see lake effect bands extend that far south. Thanks to the snow cover, YYZ got down to 12 last night. Our coldest low so far. Hoping we can both see something more widespread so we can have a piece of the pie together.

Looks like HRRR nailed the Georgian bay band. Measured 2.1" with the band today in Woodbridge, just north of Toronto. About 5" on the ground now. Nice to see snow piles again on the edge of my driveway. Winter wonderland

London got slammed today with 20-30". Good thing it was moved. You would've gotten stuck.

Just measured 2.5" from this clipper. Looking like a winter wonderland. HRRR has been showing a strong LES band off Georgian Bay tomorrow that reaches into Toronto and possibly dropping up to 2" especially north of 401. We'll see if that pans out.

Excited for my occasional 5 minute burst of heavy flurries.

Low of -27F tonight feeling like -42 with a high of -20F tomorrow in Regina, SK. Bone chilling cold and quite the pattern reversal from the record breaking warm start to Nov. https://weather.gc.ca/en/location/index.html?coords=50.450,-104.617

How is the most recent -PDO pattern (2019 - present) different than prior -PDO periods (i.e., 2005-2014 or 1960-1976) that featured more prominent cold winters? Perhaps the marine heatwave is having an effect on the PDO?