Snowstorms

Your area would've lucked out close to 6" if that dry slot didn't happen for 2 hours yesterday. I talked about it the other day about how models can sometimes miss the dynamic cooling thanks to the cold high pressure across Quebec.

What a storm. Definite overachiever. The warm tongue did not materialize as modeled. We've warmed up to 25 now but that's probably as warm as it'll get. Measured 10" this morning. 10.2" officially at YYZ. Snow depth at 16" now. Spent 2 hours this morning shovelling.

Heaviest snow on the way for Toronto. YYZ at 5.5" as of 1am. 8" seems like a lock now. Models busted with the warmup. Currently 19. Models had a forecast around 30 by 1am.

I'm at ~13cm so far. 20cm seems like a good bet now. Rates should start picking up again. EC updated warnings with 15-20cm (6-8") expected now.

I don't think so. We're running several degrees colder than what was modeled at this current time. Even by the lake its sitting at -4C. Models had downtown at 0C (32F) right now. Areas away from the lake might end up staying as snow.

Snowfalls rates should pick up for you between midnight and 6am now. Your area still looks good for 20-30cm.

Glad you finally cracked the 10" mark and got something decent. Hope you feel better.

What part of the city you in again?

Just measured 4". Heavy snow right now.

The differences are pretty stark at 500mb b/w RGEM and GFS. Still no consistency yet.

Damn that pesky warm air crept through to you before you could hit 4". That dry slot between 630-8pm wasn't modeled by the mesoscale models and that put a damper on amounts for you.

How much snow did you get so far?

Mixing line (ice pellets/frz rain) advancing north towards Hamilton now. We'll see how far north that little warm nose goes. For now temps are sitting at 23. 3.2" at YYZ so far. Heaviest rates to come soon.

Pouring snow now with visibility down to 0.4 miles.

Your area should do well. Upwards of 12" or 30cm is possible. A lot of blowing snow possible tomorrow too.

Light snow has commenced with trace accumulations so far. Temps holding steady at 19. Had a little compaction since the weekend, but current snowpack is 7".

I wish there was more detailed records of some of these historic winters in the 1800s. Nothing has ever come close to how snowy some of them were. And I'm not sure why? Not sure if theres stations in Michigan, Ohio, or Illinois that go back that far? Even from a temperature standpoint and not just in winter, but yearly. Not sure if its a result of UHI, but a lot of the summers in the 1800s in Toronto were cold by today's standards only averaging around 68 (+/- 1.5). However, some of the numbers at YYZ are questionable for some winters especially 07-08. Every station in Toronto recorded 90-100" that winter with YYZ only at 76". Consequently YYZ fell short by 5" from breaking the all-time record (1938-39). Similar story with 08-09. YYZ recorded 60" but most stations were 70+".

Still liking 6-8" for Toronto away from the lake, locally higher. Thinking 4" near the lake and Hamilton with mixing around midnight. Some virga on the radar right now due to dry air, but the column will quickly begin saturating by late afternoon.

Complex set up tomorrow for Toronto. Areas closer to the lake may switch over to freezing rain and rain but areas north of the 401 could stay predominately as snow. Temperatures are marginal, but sometimes models can underestimate the sneaky dynamic cooling plus the nearly frozen Lake Erie which may help to keep temperatures at bay. Certainly a nowcast event. Early call is 6-8" north of the 401 and closer to 4" near the lake.

It did. Most models had us around 2-4", but HRRR was a bit aggressive with 4-6". Most places saw between 5-8". Got a solid 9" on the ground now. YYZ is around 26.5" for the season.

Final storm total of 6" at YYZ. Western areas of the GTA saw close to 8".

Kuchera maps have us at almost 60+ in the next 11 days. Insane run.

Just measured 5". Light snow should continue for the next few hours so will likely finish around 6".

Whats your seasonal average? YYZ is at 20.6" as of yesterday. This storm should push YYZ to 25-26".

That's awesome. Last year was a stinker for Hamilton. Will this storm help put you ahead of any futility records?