Snowstorms

La Nina needs to La Nina for us to start scoring. The pattern so far hasn't been that of a typical Nina.

Lake effect is nice but incredibly localized. A single squall line could literally be only 15-20 miles long in width meanwhile the people outside that boundary are dry and snowless. Made it up to 19.5" here in Toronto thanks to these 1-3" clippers and lake effect. Still running below average though for the ytd.

So have most of the Great Lakes region. Some of us have 1-3" our way to 10"+ but weak clippers or lake effect snow don't count. But for those that haven't even experienced that, I truly feel for y'all.

Been snowing since the morning, lightly to at times heavy, and picked up a good 1.7" today. Puts me at 19.3" for the season.

Canada has been cold. It was -50 a week ago in the Yukon and in the -40's this morning in Nunavut. The problem has been the warm lakes after experiencing 2 consecutive blowtorched winters and lack of sea ice across the Hudson. I think this is the latest Hudson Bay has gone without freezing over. But I agree, we will see some of the coldest air since 2019 across the region next week. I believe one of the reasons Siberia is colder than Northern Canada is the lack of land mass across Northern Canada vs one giant country on the other side of the pole. The vast open ocean and lack of any huge land mass limits how cold Canada can get. That helps drive the Siberian high. But the lowest temperature ever recorded in Canada was -81.4, not to far from Siberia's lowest of -89.9.

Thats not possible. The first ever plane wasn't invented until 1903. The word airport probably didn't even get invented until after. What use is a port if there's nothing in the air?

We will see if that happens. The cold this month so far hasn't been impressive, its been seasonal cold. The culprit is the warm lakes and lack of sea ice across Hudson Bay and Baffin Island which still hasn't frozen over yet. Might be the latest on record? This duo may modify the temps and prevent us from experiencing a severe cold outbreak like we did in mid-late Jan 2019 or late Dec 2017. Not complaining about these 1-3" events but going 1.5 months into winter without a trackable event is total zzz.

The bottom image looks more like a neutral EPO and strong Aleutian ridge pattern, typical Nina look with the weak SE ridge.

Thank you and @donsutherland1 for sharing that. Those top 10 winters in your list were also impressively cold here too. 1874-75 actually beat 1976-77 by a hair. But the severity of the cold in 1976-77 remains unmatched. Toronto went a staggering 51 days below freezing in a row. 1977-78 was impressive too with 41 straight days. Almost all of our coldest winters were either cold Neutrals or weak El Ninos. Honorable mention is the February 1979 cold outbreak. We went 10 straight days below 14. I think even NYC with the exception of one day for a couple hours, practically went 15 straight days below freezing.

Total snooze fest on the GFS.

What are NYC's top 10 coldest winters since 1950, irrespective of normals. 1976-77 is Toronto's coldest winter as well with a mean temp of 16.8 for DJF. 1969-70 and 1944-45 are tied for second and 1993-94 and 1977-78 are tied for third.

Most of us living in the Great Lakes are running warmer than normal this month when compared to the old 81-10 normals vs the blowtorched 91-20 normals. I've only gotten down to 8 so far this month, which is nothing impressive, given our average low of 13 currently. Those living in the path of the snow belts are doing amazing, snow wise. Most of us aren't. I've been fortunate enough, which is rare btw, to get a few lake effect streamers which have given me a grand total of 7" since Dec 1 of the total 17" for the season. The rest was cause of clippers, 1-3", here and there. It's crazy what consistently warm winters can do to lake temperatures.

Nice clipper, just wish we could've stolen some more moisture from that storm down south haha. Clipper'd and lake effect snowed my way to 17" and around 14" at YYZ on the season. Of the 17.6" at my place, about 7" is from lake effect alone. Still running below average though.

Nice to see the Mid-Atlantic snow covered. It's been a long while, happy for you guys

I think his idea of "canonical La Nina" are winters like 2022-23, 2011-12, 1999-00, or 1998-99 which were straight blowtorches, but they weren't necessarily because of an overpowered SE ridge. A true canonical La Nina winter has cold anomalies centered across the Upper Midwest, Plains, and Canadian Prairies and neither of those winters above had that with the exception of 2022-23 in a few spots thanks to a really cold December. A true canonical La Nina winter may feature warm periods in the east but equal amounts of cold shots or a cold winter month or two, i.e., Dec-Jan 2009, Dec-mid Feb 2018, etc. Temperature wise, 2021-22 was the last true canonical La Nina winter. The warm anomalies in the south are primarily because of a near record warm December. That was likely driven by an overpowered SE ridge, +AMO, and climate change.

Clipper overachieved here. Measured 3.8". Most areas of Toronto received 4-6" thanks to some lake enhancement. At least it finally looks like winter.

The areas that almost never have snow cover are about to have a snow cover while the rest of us in prime winter areas are bone dry. We were lucky enough to salvage some lake effect snow and 2 clippers in December, but were about to go half way through winter with only one snowstorm that impacted the region as a whole. Pretty crazy.

Thanks for the background. This winter is unmitigated disaster outside the snow belts and mid-atl.

It was. Idk, lake effect snow melts quicker. Maybe due to the water content? Tonight's low might get down to 0.

Got a surprise 2" today from a lake effect streamer. It has largely melted now.

All the ensembles are indicating a pattern shift after the 15th. The PNA ridge begins to break down and a ridge begins to form around Alaska towards the Aleutians. This will shift the mean trough towards the plains and hopefully give way to a more stormier/active storm track for the sub in the final 10-15 days of the month. About the only silver lining I see right now.

A bone chilling -55 right now with windchills close to -63 in Mayo, Yukon. At least the cold is on this side of the globe.

That Euro total snow map till January 18 looks depressing for everyone in the Great Lakes, Ohio, and NE region outside of the snow belts. Hope things change in the last 10 days of the month.

https://www.onthesnow.com/lake-tahoe/skireport 49% of normal so far and next 10 days look dry too. Whistler is doing bit better but looks to dry out too.

Except the snow belt regions in the great lakes, it's been bad everywhere. After Tuesday the mid atlantic are about to be ahead of 95% of the people living in the great lakes region.