Snowstorms

I prefer the trough centered towards the upper great lakes and midwest. if its too far east, its tougher to get big storms.

Man what a powerful Gulf low this weekend. If only it was colder

I guess it depends where you're geographically located. A strong El Nino is an almost guaranteed torch especially now with climate change and we can see that radical shift after the 70's. 82-83, 91-92, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24 all blowtorches. El Nino's are great in offering big storm potentials. However, most moderate-strong Nina's that were preceded by El Nino's can offer a lot of storm potentials and we saw this with 2007-08, 2010-11, 2016-2018. Most weak Nino's are great at keeping a weak Aleutian low present allowing for good cross polar and blocking patterns to emerge. Similarly, La Nina is great if its dominating the pattern which allows for a poleward Aleutian ridge which can either morph into a -EPO pattern or allow for cross polar flow with a -AO/NAO. It may keep the centre of cold near the Plains and Midwest, but it's good for allowing strong gradient storms to develop or coastal storms when the trough displaces east. This also helps keep a longer lasting snow cover. I prefer mod-strong La Nina's and weak Nino's. Weak Nina's (ONI <= -0.9) or strong Nino's can go either way. Mod Nino's are okay, if we have good blocking. Merry Christmas

Beautiful track. Eerily similar to Mar 08 and Jan 22. If only it was colder

I was in Hamilton downtown last week Friday. It seemed like you guys got some good lake effect snow though? Did it melt away or was your area outside the lake effect band. Hopefully we all beat last years disaster. YYZ is at 8.8" so far. We finished Nov with zero snowfall and will finish Dec within an inch of our 91-20 normal, but 2.5" short of 71-00 normals. Temperature wise, going to finish warm again for the 7th year in a row. Beautiful white Christmas though. Merry Christmas

That's great, welcome to Toronto now haha. And check here. EC has been cutting out so many stations, it sucks, due to a lack of gvt funding. https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?timeframe=2&Year=2024&Month=11&Day=1&hlyRange=|&dlyRange=1994-11-01|2024-12-01&mlyRange=1994-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=26953&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2024&selRowPerPage=25&Line=2&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=north+york

Yeah the WAA moved in quicker than modeled. Even areas close to the lake here switched to rain or mixing. But glad its a White Christmas. Our first since 2020. Merry Christmas

In Woodbridge, just north of Toronto proper. Including last night's storm, I'm at 11.8" for the season. YYZ is at 8.7".

Winter wonderland right now. Close to 4" so far. Should certainly make for a white Christmas.

The pattern advertised in January is almost like a hybrid Nina/Nino pattern. A big ridge builds from Alaska right into the Aleutians, typical Nina look combined with a 50/50 low thats typical for a Nino. As a result almost all of Canada and US are below normal. I'll take it.

Canada is about to blowtorch this week. Some of these temperatures are almost unheard of at these latitudes at this time of the year. See below some select cities near Hudson Bay. If you scroll down a bit you'll see their daily normals (averages). Many places are expected to be nearly 30 degrees above average. https://weather.gc.ca/en/location/index.html?coords=55.295,-77.744 https://weather.gc.ca/en/location/index.html?coords=51.282,-80.645 https://weather.gc.ca/en/location/index.html?coords=58.762,-94.132 If the Bay doesn't freeze over before this blowtorch, were going to have some problems getting cold in January.

Got down to -4F (-20C) last night. Our coldest Dec night since 2017.

-20C right now in Parry Sound. Probably one of the coldest December nights in a while.

The early to mid 80s weren't bad for snow here too. Both 83-84 and 84-85 were stellar seasons. Late 80's into the 90's were just bad. I was near your neck of the woods today. Drove to Ann Arbor then Sterling Heights to see some Christmas stuff haha.

The 80's and 90's were horrible for snow lovers. Couple cold winters in the early 80s and 1992-1994 but otherwise it was seasonably warm and snowless. Which ironically coincides with the last +PDO phase. Arguably it turned more snowier and colder at the turn of the century when the PDO flipped again.

How much did Detroit get in 1995-96?

Yes give me those pre 2015 ENSO winters. Except 21-22, its just been "recycled" garbage cold and snow patterns. Since Jan 2019, we've legit only had 2 actual winter months that felt like winter (Feb 2021, Jan 2022). You can add 2.5 more months to that going back to 2015.

EC issued a weather advisory for the GTA. Potential for 2-4" thanks to lake enhancement. But maybe higher or lower depending on where the band sets up and its strength. Areas near Oakville and Hamilton may see upwards of 15-20cm (6-8").

not until we get that fugly vortex outta Alaska.

I don't mind a -ENSO pattern if its the primary driver of the pattern and if the SE ridge isn't over amplified. But it's been annoying over the last couple of years. Just endless warmth. Could the +AMO be amplifying it? It has yet to shift to -ve after 30 years now. I prefer a poleward Aleutian ridge than an overpowered Aleutian low that floods most of NA with warmth. A -ENSO offers more opportunities for cold and snow threats thanks to an active clipper pattern. But I understand for people further south esp the Mid-Atlantic, they may feel strongly against a -ENSO pattern.

I mean there's no questionable doubt that winters have warmed in the past 150 years. The more alarming trend has been the lack of any sustained winter conditions especially in the last 10 years. Our winters feel like they've been reduced to 2-3 intense weeks. And I don't think the -PDO is the driving factor for that. The PDO was primarily negative from 1998-2014 and we saw a handful of cold winter months. Every Nina December from 2000-2017 except 2011 featured sustained cold/snow for most everyone. Quite the opposite with every Nina since 2020. The 60's and 70's were likely cooler than other decades with the -PDO/AMO combination plus other factors. That continued into the mid 80's with the ongoing -AMO which may have muted any SE ridge.

Agreed. Plus the lack of sea ice in Hudson Bay and near Baffin Island is really concerning. Doesn't bode well for any sustained cold in the East anytime soon. And a 5 day cool down later this week won't help with the torch expected later next week. Our best chance for any sustained winter is likely mid Jan.

And the trend of warm Decembers continues. 7 years now since our last cold December. With the exception of 3 years between 1995-2017, every La Nina December was cold.

We got 3" with that clipper in early December but everything else was lake effect too. The 1991-2020 average is arguably more warmer than the 1981-2010 average. Env Canada hasn't updated the 1991-2010 average on their page yet. I think the old 1981-2010 average in DTW is 29.9 vs 33.3 right now. I think the low December snow and warm Decembers since 2015 can be partly attributed to climate change. Unless this pattern is cyclical, but that remains to be seen. But given the amount of La Nina's since 2017 and the lack of cold/snow, it is highly unusual.

Maybe for you guys further west it's been a cold December, but not the same story for us here further east. YYZ is running 3 degrees above normal for Dec. When the cold source is from Hudson Bay and Quebec than western Canada, that's when we average cold. But aside from the temperatures, it's been underwhelming outside the snowbelt regions. That seems to be the trend since 2017 and highly unusual for typical La Nina's. Wish we could experience the Decembers from 2000-2017 again. Are the averages on this from 1981-2010 or 1991-2020? https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=dtx