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Snowstorms

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  1. really? that sounds like some r kelly shit. If you catch my drift.
  2. Just over 4" here in Toronto. Had a brief period of +SN earlier, was impressive.
  3. Climate change. Winters be getting warmer and shorter.
  4. Wow, I didn't even know that. This torch is no joke here in Toronto too. Our average low right now is 12F and we've only hit 12F twice this whole winter and both times were during that Christmas outbreak. December still ended up well above average despite that 3-4 day Christmas outbreak. The Rideau canal, the longest skating rink in the world, has yet to open due to a lack of cold.
  5. Exactly. When you shift the baseline, the warmth doesn't seem as pronounced or almost mute. But on the grand scale of things, averages aside, if you compare current winters to previous winters, you'd notice considerable differences. Chicago and many surrounding areas have warmed considerably. I know people like to talk about the 80's and how snowless they were. But a lot of them were cold winters. The warm winters we keep seeing year after year or the prolonged thaws, did happen in the past - yes, but not as frequently as they have been right now. I've been reading up on some of those Hadley cell expansion theories. To my understanding, La Nina's expand the Hadley cell. And in the past, I've read a few research papers that said in a warming world, you'd likely see more La Nina's than El Nino's, which may sound counterintuitive, but when you consider the expansion theories, it could make some sense. But it's still too early to form any conclusions. I'd like to see more work on this.
  6. But at least Dec 2000 was cold and snowy unlike Dec 2022.
  7. You do have a valid point. And thaws do happen almost ever winter. But my issue revolved around the longevity of those thaws, especially of late. When you go back 30+ years ago, thaws like this were never this common or frequent. December has been a shit show lately and January no different. See below; 2023 - warm so far 2021 - warm (came off a warm Dec) 2020 - warm 2019 - 1st half was warm (came off a warm Dec) 2018 - couple thaws in one month 2017 - warm 2013 and 2012 - warm A couple nice cold ones from 2009 to 2011 but it doesn't undermine the warm January's from 2006 to 2008 especially Jan 2006. Based on the data @michsnowfreak provided, many places around the lower Great Lakes haven't warmed in the last 50-100+ years. So I guess from your perspective it may not seem like much. But for those of us further east or further north (like Wisconsin), the warmth has been more significant and pronounced, so it's easy for me to make that assumption. And that assumption is climate change.
  8. I don't think snow is a big issue. It can still snow with marginal temperatures and 2019-20 was a perfect example of that. I think the bigger concern is the warm winters we keep seeing year after year. For example, both Toronto and NYC have warmed 3-5F in the last 100 years. I'm not sure about Chicago or Detroit but I'm sure they've both warmed up too. A 2 or 3 week cold snap doesn't or shouldn't undermine the insanely above average temperatures outside of those 2-3 weeks. A month of winter with 2 months of extended Fall like conditions is not normal by any means. Winter is, for most of us, 3-4 months long. I think it's time to accept seeing one cold winter in a slew of warm winters may become the new norm. Unless this is just a cycle and it'll break off at some point.
  9. We might need a 82-83 or 97-98 type of Nino to reset the Pacific. 02-03 was still only moderate. And then take a break from Nina's, if possible, thereafter. But I agree those 50's weak Nino's were terrible. I'll take 02-03 any day. Solid winter all around and was much needed after that diabolical 01-02. We got 60" that winter, well above average.
  10. Whether it's a Nino or Nina, they haven't been properly coupling with the atmosphere and winter after winter we all get pure garbage. Our average low right now is 12F and we haven't been below freezing in 9 days now. We might need either a strong Nino (which may or may not happen for a few more years), or a couple neutral years to "reset" things. I would think? Seeing that graph Don posted is intriguing to say the least with both NYC and Toronto warming nearly 6F in the last 120+ years.
  11. I wonder if it was bad as the 2013 ice storm in Toronto? We got 2 inches of ice too and it practically solidified the 5" of snow we had on the ground. https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/toronto-ice-storm-2013-photos-from-the-gtas-winter-nightmare
  12. Can't just winter for a month and still call it winter. I thought winter was a 3-4 month package deal? We been getting scammed for a while now.
  13. There's been a couple good ones in the last 25 years which is literally every winter in your following post, except 09-10, but we had our version of that 2 years prior (07-08). Also, 04-05 was pretty good too. I think the bigger story is the rising winter temps. We've warmed over 3F in the last 40 years lol. And in recent years 60% of the snow we've gotten was with marginal temps. A degree higher and it would've been rain. So unless this is some cycle, at the rate we're all going, it may only get worse. So yeah it's pretty bad.
  14. Lake effect is extremely localized. So it's really only a guarantee for maybe 5-10% of people living near the Great Lakes. The other 90-95% of us just get mood flakes and that one 5 minute burst of heavy mood flakes. Take it from me, I live near Lake Ontario and we only get 1-2 decent chances, at best, per winter lol. And that too, no more than 3-4". Plus there's been no lake effect snow now for 10 days cause it's too warm. It's been a very shit winter.
  15. 2-4" possible across the GTA, away from the Lake, this evening into tomorrow. Lake Ontario temperatures are still relatively warm for this time of the year. This combined with cold upper air temps, will allow the lake effect band to sustain itself through tomorrow morning. If surface temperatures were colder, this would've been a nice 4-8" event. But we'll take it.
  16. October finished a degree above average with no sub-freezing lows recorded at YYZ lol.
  17. Been in the 40s all day. Still waiting for our first freeze. Too much cloud cover and uhi preventing it.
  18. I haven't turned my heat on yet but may eventually haha. This ugly upper level low has kept all of us in the low to mid teens since the weekend. Some of the hi-res models had lows in the low single digits tonight but with the thick cloud cover in place right now, that seems unlikely. Early next week looks nice though.
  19. I haven't been to that side of NYS yet. I just googled Adirondack and I'm blown away. Wow!! I thought mountains like this were only on the west coast. I'm definitely going to check this out in the next couple of weeks. Not that far from Montreal either. Sounds good, I will join your discord group. Thanks again for the recommendations.
  20. I went to Allegany State Park for the first time back in May. It was a beautiful park, so I went again in June and August haha. I was looking to drive down into NY State again to see some Fall colours. Any recommendations on good parks? Preferably with some good mountains.
  21. Currently 80F but a nice line of thunderstorms about to roll in soon. Forecast low of 37F tom night. Impressive cold front.
  22. 1.9" since June 1 and only 0.3" halfway through July lol. Looking like California out here. Can't complain, been nice to get out of the house and not worry about rain.
  23. I agree, I'm surprised myself. Maybe it's the UHI? Not even Windsor has hit 35C this year. Toronto has hit it twice.
  24. Hit 95 both yesterday and Tuesday in Toronto. Humidity had us feeling close to 110 Broke the daily record both days. Need some rain though, it's been really dry since Spring.
  25. Sitting at 75F currently at YYZ. Warmest temp we've had since Oct 2, 2021.
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