Snowstorms

The lack of any decent or widespread snow cover maybe playing a role in that. Kind of similar to Jan 2011. Although it finished below average, their wasn't any extreme cold. I think ORD only got below zero once.

Agreed. I think the mid-atlantic likes strong nino's cause it beefs up the stj and even with marginal temps, they can "squeeze" in some miracle storm despite it being a complete disaster elsewhere. I think for us snow weenies, the next 1-2 weeks are going to be brutal coming off the December we had with nothing going on. But atleast it will be cold. I think our best chance might be next weekend, at the earliest. Both the GFS and CMC have some moving pieces thanks to the active but suppressed stj. What's key is if we can get a partial phase.

I think its the continuing bad winters we keep seeing thats getting to people's heads. These guys in the Nino thread last year were so amped that we finally got a Nino and it ended up being worse than the trifecta Nina that preceded it.

I am liking the subtle trends towards a neutral PNA as we get closer to mid January on the ensembles. The NAO block likely shifts from being west based to east based which should help as opposed to now where every storm is being suppressed. I think our best window of opportunity is between Jan 13 and Jan 25 as the +PNA wanes and an Alaskan ridge builds. Until then zzz.

True we did and thats why I mentioned aside from clippers. Nicked and dimed our way to 22cm so nothing crazy. However, without any trackable storms over the next 10-15 days, the gap between our ytd and seasonal total will increase. By the end of January we should be averaging 25" or 65cm. I assume Chicago is probably around 20" by then too. Hopefully things change as the month progresses for all of us.

After going December without any snowstorms, aside from 2 clippers, the next 2 weeks of January look cold and dry. Another mediocre winter so far.

Completely agree. I can't deal with frigid cold and barren ground. But this pattern is not conductive for big storms given the trough orientation other than maybe weak clippers and lake effect snow. Hope we can score something. I'm personally not a fan of +PNA patterns.

The biggest drawback with this cold could be the lack of storms with the way the trough is going to be positioned. And aside from warm torches in winter, I hate long cold/dry patterns.

2 more days left including today, but December will likely finish 2-3 degrees above average. Our 7th consecutive warm December. Snow wise, we will finish about 2" below average. Only silver lining in this string of unprecedented warm Decembers, is that only 3 have finished below average since 2016 snow wise.

January 2000 was cold too with an intense cold outbreak that second half. I think central park was well below freezing for 7 days in a row.

I prefer the trough centered towards the upper great lakes and midwest. if its too far east, its tougher to get big storms.

Man what a powerful Gulf low this weekend. If only it was colder

I guess it depends where you're geographically located. A strong El Nino is an almost guaranteed torch especially now with climate change and we can see that radical shift after the 70's. 82-83, 91-92, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24 all blowtorches. El Nino's are great in offering big storm potentials. However, most moderate-strong Nina's that were preceded by El Nino's can offer a lot of storm potentials and we saw this with 2007-08, 2010-11, 2016-2018. Most weak Nino's are great at keeping a weak Aleutian low present allowing for good cross polar and blocking patterns to emerge. Similarly, La Nina is great if its dominating the pattern which allows for a poleward Aleutian ridge which can either morph into a -EPO pattern or allow for cross polar flow with a -AO/NAO. It may keep the centre of cold near the Plains and Midwest, but it's good for allowing strong gradient storms to develop or coastal storms when the trough displaces east. This also helps keep a longer lasting snow cover. I prefer mod-strong La Nina's and weak Nino's. Weak Nina's (ONI <= -0.9) or strong Nino's can go either way. Mod Nino's are okay, if we have good blocking. Merry Christmas

Beautiful track. Eerily similar to Mar 08 and Jan 22. If only it was colder

I was in Hamilton downtown last week Friday. It seemed like you guys got some good lake effect snow though? Did it melt away or was your area outside the lake effect band. Hopefully we all beat last years disaster. YYZ is at 8.8" so far. We finished Nov with zero snowfall and will finish Dec within an inch of our 91-20 normal, but 2.5" short of 71-00 normals. Temperature wise, going to finish warm again for the 7th year in a row. Beautiful white Christmas though. Merry Christmas

That's great, welcome to Toronto now haha. And check here. EC has been cutting out so many stations, it sucks, due to a lack of gvt funding. https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?timeframe=2&Year=2024&Month=11&Day=1&hlyRange=|&dlyRange=1994-11-01|2024-12-01&mlyRange=1994-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=26953&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2024&selRowPerPage=25&Line=2&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=north+york

Yeah the WAA moved in quicker than modeled. Even areas close to the lake here switched to rain or mixing. But glad its a White Christmas. Our first since 2020. Merry Christmas

In Woodbridge, just north of Toronto proper. Including last night's storm, I'm at 11.8" for the season. YYZ is at 8.7".

Winter wonderland right now. Close to 4" so far. Should certainly make for a white Christmas.

The pattern advertised in January is almost like a hybrid Nina/Nino pattern. A big ridge builds from Alaska right into the Aleutians, typical Nina look combined with a 50/50 low thats typical for a Nino. As a result almost all of Canada and US are below normal. I'll take it.

Canada is about to blowtorch this week. Some of these temperatures are almost unheard of at these latitudes at this time of the year. See below some select cities near Hudson Bay. If you scroll down a bit you'll see their daily normals (averages). Many places are expected to be nearly 30 degrees above average. https://weather.gc.ca/en/location/index.html?coords=55.295,-77.744 https://weather.gc.ca/en/location/index.html?coords=51.282,-80.645 https://weather.gc.ca/en/location/index.html?coords=58.762,-94.132 If the Bay doesn't freeze over before this blowtorch, were going to have some problems getting cold in January.

Got down to -4F (-20C) last night. Our coldest Dec night since 2017.

-20C right now in Parry Sound. Probably one of the coldest December nights in a while.

The early to mid 80s weren't bad for snow here too. Both 83-84 and 84-85 were stellar seasons. Late 80's into the 90's were just bad. I was near your neck of the woods today. Drove to Ann Arbor then Sterling Heights to see some Christmas stuff haha.

The 80's and 90's were horrible for snow lovers. Couple cold winters in the early 80s and 1992-1994 but otherwise it was seasonably warm and snowless. Which ironically coincides with the last +PDO phase. Arguably it turned more snowier and colder at the turn of the century when the PDO flipped again.