Visibility was down to 0.5 miles around 3 am at YYZ with an intense squall moving through. Got less than an inch in my neck of the woods with an inch near YYZ.
History tells us its usually rare for a storm to come back south again after all models shift NW simultaneously lol. But as mentioned before, there's still a lot of room for error.
Haha. More than half that came from Nov and the Dec 2nd event. It's been pretty uneventful since. Anyways, good to have you back.
Enjoy your vacation! Aruba is on my list too.
We've nickel and dimed our way up to average the last few winters. No exceptional storms outside of some over performing clippers or overrunning events. We haven't had a phased storm in years. ChiTown's frustration is understandable.
The initial low won't make it to the coast till tom night and the main event till Thurs night. So we likely won't have an accurate picture until Wed 00z and Thurs 12Z, respectively. Can't write it off just yet.
Pretty nice subtropical jet stream influence. If this storm pans out, it'll be a decent storm for some. Been a while since we've seen a storm like this.
The EURO has a three punch storm. The third is further south than the GFS and CMC.
Edit: That strong HP near Hudson Bay plays a major role IMO on how far north the storm comes and where the gradient sets up with a cold NE wind.
Half of February 08 was spent in unfavourable phases (3-4-5-6) along with a +NAO/AO pattern. We can get lucky depending on where NPAC ridge sets up and how it impacts the gradient. A bit further east into the EPO domain could allow for a slightly suppressed SE ridge.
I was bored so I began watching a radar loop lol. The winter of 2004-05 was a fairly interesting and active winter for most of us. Got around 65.0" locally.
Back when phased storms were a thing lol.