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Snowstorms

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  1. NAM trying to do a repeat of the 2013 ice storm in my neck of the woods.
  2. Visibility was down to 0.5 miles around 3 am at YYZ with an intense squall moving through. Got less than an inch in my neck of the woods with an inch near YYZ.
  3. 00Z CMC isn't much different than the 12z run. Sfc low cuts just south of Chicago. Rain for most of us except eastern Iowa and Wisconsin.
  4. History tells us its usually rare for a storm to come back south again after all models shift NW simultaneously lol. But as mentioned before, there's still a lot of room for error.
  5. Haha. More than half that came from Nov and the Dec 2nd event. It's been pretty uneventful since. Anyways, good to have you back. Enjoy your vacation! Aruba is on my list too.
  6. That winter was hot garbage outside of that one storm.
  7. It's almost like 06-07 where 80% of that winter happened in February lol.
  8. If the 12z NAM were to be extrapolated, it would be rain for all of us.
  9. Once that trough out west moves further east, and it will eventually, it'll suppress every storm. So yeah, terrible pattern both ways.
  10. If this storm ends up being a rainer, nothing can save this winter. I'd punt it. That's just ridiculous.
  11. We've nickel and dimed our way up to average the last few winters. No exceptional storms outside of some over performing clippers or overrunning events. We haven't had a phased storm in years. ChiTown's frustration is understandable.
  12. The initial low won't make it to the coast till tom night and the main event till Thurs night. So we likely won't have an accurate picture until Wed 00z and Thurs 12Z, respectively. Can't write it off just yet.
  13. There's also a strong HP that undercuts the departing LP in Northern Ontario. If the southern stream slows down a bit, we can gain some help from it.
  14. It's been a couple years since we've had a proper storm. Therefore, trends would favour a weaker storm lol.
  15. Pretty nice subtropical jet stream influence. If this storm pans out, it'll be a decent storm for some. Been a while since we've seen a storm like this.
  16. The EURO has a three punch storm. The third is further south than the GFS and CMC. Edit: That strong HP near Hudson Bay plays a major role IMO on how far north the storm comes and where the gradient sets up with a cold NE wind.
  17. Half of February 08 was spent in unfavourable phases (3-4-5-6) along with a +NAO/AO pattern. We can get lucky depending on where NPAC ridge sets up and how it impacts the gradient. A bit further east into the EPO domain could allow for a slightly suppressed SE ridge.
  18. Massive sleet storm on the CMC... yeah no thanks.
  19. Light snow has begun. Looks like 2.0" is a safe bet for tonight. Local amounts may approach 3.0" in Toronto.
  20. I was bored so I began watching a radar loop lol. The winter of 2004-05 was a fairly interesting and active winter for most of us. Got around 65.0" locally. Back when phased storms were a thing lol.
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