Snowstorms

Tricky call. RGEM has been consistent for a few runs now with that secondary low. Let's see tonights 00Z HRRR and RGEM runs. I'm going with ~3" for tonights wave.

Latest RGEM has ~2-4". There's some dry air out ahead of the system. Heaviest precip will remain south of us so hopefully that doesn't have an impact on our snow totals.

Not overly optimistic about it yet. It develops along a cold front and moves NE. If the storm can develop faster and earlier, it can perhaps progress more northward. But that all depends where the initial wave ends up. Models are all over the place.

Preliminary call for the GTA 2-4". Closer to 4" away from the Lake.

Two weeks.

I believe it is fully sampled as of 12z today.

The models took the words right out of your mouth. GFS is primarily sleet for the GTA. The other models are mostly snow but we're riding the thin line.

Fair point. I wasn't following along with ICON's performance of late. Tonight's models are all over the place. Still no consistency. Any early thoughts?

Isn't that like a record +AO? Seems like in recent years the AO has been exceptionally positive in winter.

I've seen the Sun maybe twice in the last 2-3 weeks. Garbage.

I look at trends on the models more than specific amounts or temperature gradients. Since yesterday all models have shifted east of the Apps. The key now is if this continues or things shift back in our favor. However, I do agree with what you said.

Got close to 2" today as well. Starting to melt now.

Atleast we got ensemble support. Tomorrow's runs will be key if the eastward trends continue or we slowly slip back further west.

Jan 2020 was the 4th warmest Jan on record at YYZ. Only 2006, 2002 and 1990 were warmer. But if we go back to 1840, when records began in Toronto, it's not even top 20. Snow wise, YYZ finished with 12.0". It was the second wettest Jan on record with 5.1" at YYZ.

As it stands right now, all the models expect UKIE are too far east for any respectable snow in the GTA.

Morch 2.0.

~1.5" at YYZ today. 1.6" in my backyard and still snowing.

Nice model battle going on right now. Euro and UKMET have a well defined storm whereas the CMC is bit too progressive and the GFS is too far east. We should get better model consensus tom night and Mon 12z as the storm gets fully sampled.

0.6" at YYZ with some light snow this evening. HRRR has another 1-2" tom with a weak clipper moving through.

Leafs vs. Rangers next Wed. It's gonna be a good game.

The GFS is king at trolling. The Euro is somewhat realistic sometimes.

01-02, 06-07, 09-10, 11-12 and 15-16 were the real shitty winters. Here's a list of our least snowiest winters on record, in sequence, going back to 1937. (1) 11-12 (2) 09-10 (3) 52-53 (4) 06-07 (5) 15-16 Beavis would go nuts if he experienced that ^.

They get excited because they're so heavily dependent on those big storms. Their snowfall average isn't as uniform as Detroit. Look back at 09-10 or 15-16 when they had those big storms. I'm sure it didn't last longer than a week on the ground lol. Our geography helps us out quite a bit. Hence why we see a lot of smaller events (2" - 6") every winter. And then occasionally we get a big storm or two (8+"). This winter outside of a few events has been a joke. It's been exceptionally warm and is up there with 11-12 and 01-02 in recent years. Up here in Toronto our snowfall average since 1990 has actually been declining and part of that is because of some shit winters. Namely 94-95, 97-98, 01-02, 05-06, 06-07, 09-10, 11-12, 15-16 and 16-17.

Winnipeg averages 45" over 9 months (Sept-May). Winnipeg is super cold though. However, Boston depends heavily on Nor'easter's which can make or break their winter season. Our climo is a bit different. Our storms aren't as big but we usually get more clippers or smaller events when they get rain. Snow cover isn't as common in Boston either unless you're in Worcester or something. I'm sure they wouldn't trade a 25" blizzard for snow cover and a 4" storm lol.

Reminds me of Feb. 2018. Multiple waves back to back but nothing extraordinary.