Snowstorms

Nice. Typical mid-late Fall weather this week with a warming trend by the weekend. It's Thanksgiving this weekend in Canada so definitely looking forward to a stellar long weekend.

How is upstate NY doing considering you guys are our closest neighbor? Corona cases have been steadily rising here since late August. 732 cases today which is the highest daily count since this pandemic began. No real progression towards a second lockdown yet, however back in the summer they made masks mandatory in all indoor settings. As of now the border remains closed for all non-essential travel.

2016-17 came off a very strong Nino and was during +PDO that started in 2014. I would assume even just based off that, it's not an ideal analogue for this year. I wonder if we see a multi-year Nina event this year and would it be enough to move us back into a longer term deep -PDO like the late 2000s. Last multi-year Nina event was 1998-2001 and prior to that 1973-1976.

Dec 08 and January 2009 were both awesome up this way with 26" and 28", respectively. We cracked freezing 4 days in Jan 09 but it was barely above. We had better snow cover retention in 2008-09 than 2007-08. Although 2008-09 was a +QBO, it was a second year Nina with a deeply -PDO unlike this year.

A lot of Gulf Low's that winter. Outside of LES, I'm assuming Western NY did pretty well with those.

Euro and CFS both have a robust easterly wind burst over the next 2 weeks. Still a lot of cold subsurface anomalies esp below eastern Nino regions. I would expect the ENSO regions to cool down over the next few weeks solidifying a moderate Nina come NDJ. Even across western regions it has cooled down some over the past few weeks. We currently have an east based La Nina right now. 2017 and 2007 are the two most recent east-based La Nina’s. 2013 too if you want to consider it as it was borderline weak Nina. I would assume Nina's are fairly dry for your region in the winter.

Forgive me if I am wrong as I'm still learning about the Hadley Cell Circulation and Global Angular Momentum on my own, but doesn't a typical La Nina induce the expansion of the Hadley Cell?

1949-50 was a strong Nina gradient winter. However, QBO was negative that winter.

Wow, that's a sick view. Good vibes. Wanted to go there this year but then Covid happened.

Looked back at some historic snowstorms during previous La Nina's and one really stood out to me. On Feb 24, 1965 a strong Gulf Low had developed and tracked up north towards the Ohio Valley and later on to Quebec. Toronto recorded 17" with that storm. I was reading an old news article that mentioned it was the worst storm in Detroit in 35 years with nearly a foot of snow. Some other cities like Indianapolis received 10" of snow and Toledo received close to a foot as well. Would be nice to experience something like that again. I'd gladly take a repeat of 1964-65, thanks.

07-08 was a good redemption winter after 06-07. Hoping it's colder than 2007-08 though. There are some impressive cold Nina winters following Nino's. Hoping for a similar outcome this year. Although compared to 06-07, we ended last season with 57".

Was hot garbage up this way too. Only 32". Only thing impressive about that winter was the Feb cold snap.

There's a good chance this year could be one of the weakest flu seasons on record, in part thanks to Covid. I think another lockdown is quite possible but not to the extent we experienced earlier this year. I think many countries including USA are better managing the situation now compared to Mar/Apr. If anything they might close down certain restaurants, bars and other more crowded indoor spaces to limit the spread. At this point until we have a worldwide vaccine, no lockdown or restrictive measures will curb the spread. Where is the hot spot right now in the USA?

1970-71 was another great winter up this way. 71.0" which is 25" above our seasonal average. DJFM all featured below normal temps. 1970-71 La Nina came after two consecutive Nino's (1968-70), similar to this year.

95-96..started great (Nov/Dec). Jan/Feb were just cold and dry and frankly boring. Mar was great and April too. Overall, we finished above avg (59.2") and 2.4 degrees below avg. 05-06..started great (Nov/Dec). Rest of the winter was trash. Mild and snowless. If I'm not mistaken, it's top 10 or top 15 least snowiest winter on record at YYZ. Finished the season with 34". 07-08.. best winter ever. Every month was epic. Finished the season with 92". Another station in the city finished with 99". Double our seasonal avg.

700 new cases today in Ontario setting a new single-day high record. 60% of them were in Toronto. After spending most of the summer with <100 cases per day, we've been rising exponentially since late August. Ironically, the province reopened Casino's today. Casinos in Ontario are run by the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation which is a crown corporation owned by the Government. Schools have also resumed, and we've had dozens of cases linked to various schools. I feel as though a second lockdown is coming and could be far worse than anything we experienced back in Spring.

Going through this thread, I did not know how hard it is for most of the Mid Atl. to get some decent snow. Granted I would love to experience a blizzard like Jan 2016, Dec 2010 or Feb 2010. We don't get storms like that up this way. It's crazy how many variables need to come together for you guys to get even half decent snow. Up here we prefer La Nina's > El Nino's but that doesn't mean El Nino's are bad either. For example, our snowiest Nov is an El Nino (1940), our snowiest Dec is an El Nino (1951) and our 2nd snowiest Jan is also an El Nino (1966). Our top 2 coldest winters ever (DJF) are also El Nino's (1976-77 and 1969-70). However, our top 3 snowiest winters on record are La Nina's (1937-38, 1949-50 and 2007-08). Records go back to 1937 at the airport. But believe it or not our least snowiest winter on record is a La Nina (2011-12). 2009-10, the golden winter for Mid Atl., ended up as the 2nd least snowiest winter on record here. Two different ENSOs but with the same outcome. We can do pretty good here sometimes regardless of ENSO state. Even 1995-96 we nickeled and dimed our way up to 59" (14" above avg).

Persistent cloud cover. With that -NAO block building up near Newfoundland were likely going to see some lake effect rain showers and constant clipper activity for the next week or so. The GFS stalls the low in Hudson Bay for a few days too. It'll be cool and wet regardless. Our best chance for widespread frost will likely be next weekend.

There was one on Lake Huron back in 1996. Nothing since then or before.

May 2020 was the snowiest on record here, but November wasn't even top 10. We lucked out. Except for Mar/Apr, we were average to above average every month snow wise. Jan-Feb 2019 was awesome. We got 42" in those 2 months. If I had to choose between the last two winters and 2004-05, I'd pick 2004-05. Had that nice storm right before Christmas and a few good storms in Jan and Feb 05. El Nino's up this way compared to Detroit are usually half and half, some good and some bad. For example 2006-07, 2009-10 and 2015-16 were sub 30" winters. But 2004-05 was an El Nino winter coming off a warm neutral and preceding Nino before that. So different oceanic states compared to this year.

Makes sense. Most of Buffalo's lake effect snow comes from streamers off Lake Erie. Different story further north towards Rochester and Syracuse. La Nina Octobers are typically warmer than normal, so we'll see if that holds serve for this year.

Could mean a big LES season for you guys if Nov/Dec end up below normal. Was by Lake Ontario a week ago and the water was quite warm still.

2004-05 had several cold snaps too. Most of Jan 2005 was pretty cold. Last winter was devoid of any cold. We also got 65" locally.

Wouldn't the warm pool in the Pacific encourage more ridging towards the Aleutians and even further east towards the EPO domain? A -PDO combined with a Nina would allow for more ridging across the Aleutians and Alaska, no? 2008-09 had an impressive North Pacific ridge that was poleward. Dec 08-Jan 09 wasn't crazy cold in the east, but it was persistent nonetheless. Locally we only had 2 days above freezing in Jan 09.

Although 2000-01 was front loaded, we got two decent storms in FM. Feb 2001 we got ~10" of snow and ice pellets followed by an inch of rain. And in March 2001 we got another 10" storm. No real arctic air after December either. To be honest, aside from Jan 1999, Jan 2000 cold outbreak and Dec 2000, we saw 5 crappy winters in a row (1997-2002). Nothing special happened in those 6 years expect for those select few months lol. Now to be fair I was a little kid at the time but still.