Snowstorms

Same story up this way. Only 1981-82, 1984-85 and 1992-93 were above average and the rest were ratters. 80's winters were cold though. Maybe not as a whole winter but there was a lot of cold months.

Come through. There's 2 feet of snow on the ground 70 miles north of me and 4" here. If you say you're coming for the snow you'll get a pass. Nobody comes to Canada for that.

It is possible if we get a phased storm. Though we haven't seen a true phased storm in years. I believe 2013-14 featured some spread the wealth type events. Only other possibility is having an active storm track where everyone gets a piece of the pie, albeit in different storms.

I meant to say for the entire sub forum.

Without diving into too much detail, both the GEFS and EPS offer some hope after Dec 10th. The current +PNA retrogrades into the EPO region and that offers up our first legitimate cold shot of the season ~Dec 12-14. Would likely feature a rainer around that time frame before things settle into a wintrier pattern thereafter. Eventually due to the background Nina forcing, the ridge makes its way towards the Aleutians/AK which cools most of Canada down as the PV sits overtop. In other words, the current Nino like pattern eventually gives way to a more typical Nina like December around mid-month. There is also increasing chances for Arctic blocking around mid-December as well. I’d say our first winter storm will be ~Dec 15 to Dec 20.

I was perplexed myself. We had that surprise 8-10" storm on Nov 22. Most models only had 2-4" but we overperformed due to stronger dynamic cooling. I've never seen the two hand in hand.

Finished with ~4.0" yesterday bringing my seasonal total up to 13.9" for the season. YYZ is just over 12.0” as well. Nothing crazy compared to Ohio. Probably their biggest storm since Mar 08 if I'm not mistaken.

Some Nov stats at YYZ. Records at YYZ only go back to 1937. Snowfall: 9.2" - average is 3.0". Snowiest Nov since Nov 2002. Featured biggest single day snowstorm in 70 years Mean temp: 44.2F - average is 38.6F. 2nd warmest Nov on record behind 2001. What a crazy month.

GFS hr 360... yeah.. gimme that right now.

After today its zzzz for the next 10 days.

Snowing rather nicely with that band up this way.

This airmass sucks. Happened to us with today's storm. Storm tracked just west of the Apps, which in any normal year would be a 12"+ storm, but instead we got rain. Got 3" of back end snow this morning as the LP rotated. Maybe another 1-2” later tonight. Hope there is stronger dynamic cooling with this one for you.

I agree it hasn't been exceptionally wet or anything. This airmass is putrid. Not conductive for any widespread snow or storms. Without any upper-level blocking, the flow is too progressive for any decent storms. Mostly overrunning events so far, except today.

Facts. Although 2013, 2016 and 2017 were pretty legit. Dec 2017 was our coldest Dec since 2000.

It's been active... Today is our third storm or weather event, whatever you want to call it, since Nov 22. Potential for a 4th this weekend but it'll likely end up east of the subforum. STJ is quite active right now, surprisingly for a La Nina, while the polar jet remains suppressed.

3" so far in my area. Potential for another 2-4" by tomorrow morning. This airmass is putrid. Hoping there's a pattern change by mid December to allow for better storm opportunities and lake effect.

Definitely. Last storm we were all riding a thin line. Ended up with a surprise 22cm since I'm away from the Lake. I'm at ~7.5cm so far. I agree, this is one of those all-day type of events but still not bad. EC upped their forecast to upwards of 15cm (6") for Toronto. Based on the latest surface obs, the LP is currently sitting over us right now. Things will start up to pick again later in the afternoon as the Low rotates so I wouldn’t be surprised if you end up with 15-20cm (6-8”) by tonight.

Sorry I had to.

Winter wonderland outside. Haven't measured yet but definitely over 2" and coming down heavily. Cue Dino's Let it snow.

Well you guys get those big Nor'easter's that can drop >20" once in a while. Would love to experience that. Aside from lake effect snow, most of our synoptic snow every winter is <12" with each storm.

Riding a thin line. Reminds me of last weeks storm. But as it stands, only the NAM is showing snow for Toronto. It's looking like a rainer for all of us. Would've been great if this storm was in January.

Nope they all show rain. Great track. Best in years actually but terrible pattern. Hope we turn things around mid Dec.

Interesting, thanks. Seems like their both still relatively misunderstood and it would be great if there could be additional research allocated towards learning more about them. As SnowGoose alluded to, the AMO could be one of the players but I doubt the PDO would exert any direct influence. I presumed that the accelerated sea ice loss was atleast enhancing the NAO/AO especially in the winter as the ocean heat is released back into the troposphere.

Haven't seen a storm track this favorable that's straight out the Gulf in years and it's going to be a rainer.

I think it has to do with the Arctic Sea Ice losses that have accelerated considerably since 2007. All that ocean heat being released back into the atmosphere in the Fall could have an impact on the polar vortex. Not sure if there's any research papers on that.