Snowstorms

1970-71 was Canada's coldest winter ever. The entire country was below normal. Monthly departures here in Toronto were about the same as ORH. We got 30" in Dec 1970. Wouldn't the massive warm pool in the Central Pacific influence or increase the chances for a more poleward Aleutian ridge?

07-08 is arguably one of the best winters in the last 30+ years. Apart from snow cover retention and lack of arctic air that 2013-14 featured, it was constantly stormy. I'd be shocked if you’re in the Great Lakes region and don't want a repeat of that winter unless you got rain with every storm. Even parts of the Ohio Valley did well that winter.

It's been a long year. Everyone, including myself, are tired of Covid. It's been negatively impacting everyone's mental health. We're limited to what we can do due to various restrictions and at the same time, too afraid to do the things that we are allowed to do with the fear we may encounter someone who has the virus.

I agree. I'll take last year over 2011-12 any day. 2011-12 was the least snowiest winter on record for us. 2009-10 is third believe it or not lol.

Wow. Meanwhile were +3.7 for the month. If the Euro pans out, this month may not end up all that cold as we initially assumed a week ago. The Euro solution does have some merit, in my opinion, because the Atlantic is running well above normal and that only strengthens the ridge off the coast and keeps the cold air towards the Plains. But with that impressive NAO block and Pacific block, it's debatable. I think Buffalo will end up slightly below normal for the month.

With the increasing probability we may see our first snowflakes and even accumulating snowfall over the next 2 weeks, I looked back at all the Octobers that recorded more than an inch at YYZ. Records at YYZ only go back to 1937. 1962: 2.9" - Neutral 1969: 4.8" - El Nino 1976: 1.6" - El Nino 1981: 2.4" - Neutral 1997: 1.1" - El Nino 2018: 1.0" - El Nino YYZ has recorded measurable snow in 17 Octobers since 1937. Only 2 were La Nina's (1964, 2010) and 8 were El Nino's. So the upcoming pattern is in some ways highly unusual solely from an ENSO perspective, atleast locally.

It was average here snow wise. Temp wise was warm. That's great. Keep up with your vitamins everyday, maybe exercise or go for a walk if you can, and you'll be 100% in no time.

I'm surprised with your preference for warmer weather you're living in the snowbelt haha. But I agree. I honestly thought we'd have an awesome sunny week but it's been gloomy. I suspect it's because the lakes are still running warm even though the air temperature is cold creating more condensation and hence more clouds and mist. 20's are increasingly rare from Nov-Mar in Ontario. We might get the odd one or two in March but that's rare. YYZ has only hit 20C 4 times since 2000. 1980's and 1990's had several but prior to that it was maybe once every few years. Otherwise, our best chance at hitting 20C again is April 2021 so strap in.

Interesting. Goes back to what I was saying earlier. Cold Octobers are rare in Nina's. 1988 and 1999 were both crap. There was a few cold outbreaks but they were dry as hell overall. 1974-75 was a warm winter with no cold outbreaks. I'll take the other 3 any day. Btw hope you're feeling better

To be honest, I know some right off the boat. But most of the time I have to google "F to C" just so you guys can understand. I personally like C > F and km/hr > mph but I prefer inches > cm for snow.

I agree. Although some Nov's can be hit or miss, i.e. Nov 2016 or 2010. Same thing with March. Some exceptionally cold Marches have occurred in La Nina's. Jan/Feb can be our best month if the gradient pattern that is so common in Nina's sets up over our area.

Pretty impressive block over the Pole. Haven't seen that in a while. Cold outbreaks like this are rare in La Nina Octobers.

Was supposed to be sunny today. Instead it's cloudy and dark. On the bright side, hit 70F for the first time this month. Might be our last for the year.

La Nina and below average Octobers are rare. More typical in Nino's. Do you know any that have occurred during a La Nina in Chicago? How did the following winter pan out?

939 cases today. Highest yet. Doug Ford just announced all gyms and indoor dining will be temporarily closed for 28 days effective as early as tomorrow. Casinos and convention centers could also close. Practically stage 2 lockdown again. 44% of recent outbreaks in Toronto have been tied to restaurants and other entertainment venues. We’ve been on a steady increase since late August, so this was inevitable.

I agree. Feb 2013 was arguably one of the best phased storms in recent times. Got 16" from that storm. Although 2012-13 wasn't officially a La Nina, much of that winter resembled a typical Nina pattern. Having an active northern stream increases the chances for more phased storms which can be very beneficial especially for us in the Great Lakes area. 2007-08 featured a lot of that.

Took this yesterday about 40 mins north of my house. Whole lotta colors.

America is doomed. If leaders and politicians are undermining the severity of the virus, the general public will abide and assume it's "okay" too.

Even though last winter was ridiculously warm, we still managed to finish above average. Not saying that's the outcome in every warm winter. For example, 2011-12 was shit show. Not taking anything on the long-range models at face value. But with the exceptional decline in Arctic sea ice since 2011, one would have to assume all that ocean heat being released back into atmosphere in the Fall would have an impact on the winter NAO/AO.

Any mountains from prehistoric times, in what is now called the Canadian Shield, have flattened thanks to erosion and the last ice age in Ontario. Unlike parts of New England all we have are rolling hills everywhere with the occasional high peak like the ones I'm standing on below. Took this shot on Saturday and the one below about 2.5 weeks ago.

Nice. Typical mid-late Fall weather this week with a warming trend by the weekend. It's Thanksgiving this weekend in Canada so definitely looking forward to a stellar long weekend.

Apart of this forum, Covid has been the topic of discussion for the last 9 months and quite frankly, I am tired of hearing about it. It's affecting everyone mentally and depression rates are skyrocketing now. I mean sure you might hear on the news "Derecho rips through Iowa" or "Hurricane Laura slams Louisiana" but within a few days its back to Covid again. Don't get me wrong I’m in no way downplaying the severity of the virus or its impact on the entire world. I'm just hoping we collectively as a society can move past this towards better days in the future, whether it be next year or the following year and hopefully find a cure. Edit: Here's something to cheer everyone up.

How is upstate NY doing considering you guys are our closest neighbor? Corona cases have been steadily rising here since late August. 732 cases today which is the highest daily count since this pandemic began. No real progression towards a second lockdown yet, however back in the summer they made masks mandatory in all indoor settings. As of now the border remains closed for all non-essential travel.

2016-17 came off a very strong Nino and was during +PDO that started in 2014. I would assume even just based off that, it's not an ideal analogue for this year. I wonder if we see a multi-year Nina event this year and would it be enough to move us back into a longer term deep -PDO like the late 2000s. Last multi-year Nina event was 1998-2001 and prior to that 1973-1976.