Snowstorms

It's 2020, it's acceptable this year.

12Z hasn't ran yet. Let's see.

Isn't Lake effect off Ontario usually all winter long because it's a deeper lake? There are exceptions of course during cold winters like 2013-14 or 2014-15. Unlike Lake Erie which usually freezes over because its shallower. But over 100" in a week? WOW! That's insane!!!

Feb 2013 blizzard was legit for our region. I'm sure fellow Ontarian posters will attest to that. 10 straight hours of +SN with visibility around 0.2 miles. Widespread 12-18".

Models are adamant on a lake effect band setting up from Toronto to Hamilton on Wednesday A lot of it depends on the storm track. A further north track will mean a stouter lake effect band due to better cloud seeding from the storm. The 3km NAM has moisture getting up north to Ohio which is good for our region. Potential is definitely there for 2-4"+.

GHD 1 was a major bust for us. Glad Chicago was able to record over 20" with that. Off the top of my head, these are the only storms that I've personally experienced that are near the caliber of some of these east coast storms. And even then, they get over 20" sometimes 30" lol. Jan 28-29, 2019: 14" Feb 4-5, 2014: 13" Feb 7-8, 2013: 16" Jan 17-18, 2009: 12" Mar 7-8, 2008: 12" Feb 5-6, 2008: 14" Dec 15-16, 2007: 14"

I agree completely. Boston got over 100" back in 2014-15 lol. Most of them big storms >15". They've been on a crazy run over the last 20 years which pales in comparison to some of our big winters i.e. 2007-08, 2008-09, 2013-14, etc. And yet despite all that, you should see some of the meltdowns in the New England forum lol. Yet were here pondering over storms like GHD 1, March 08 blizzard or Blizzard of 99 still. They've been exceeding seasonal averages with the exception of last year and 2011-12 for a long time. The day we start getting big blizzards like the Blizzard of 99 on a regular basis like some of these east coast folks, we shouldn't compare our petty 3-6" events. I'll take one of those big dogs every winter if that's all we get. And with our geographic location, we'll be able to retain that for a lot longer than them.

42.1F? Wow that's warm. The mean at YYZ was 39.3F. December 2015 was the warmest ever recorded and also least snowiest ever. Good stuff. If Jan isn't frigid, you might even get lake effect mid-late Feb if it can start-up lol. Cool. Will check that link out right now. Thanks!

NYC's snowfall average has gone way up over the last 20 years. I'm sure it's the same for surrounding areas. There was a time they used to get those 15"+ blizzards every few years but its become a yearly thing now, sometimes twice. So yeah, I'll take that any day over these petty 3-6" events.

A Christmas Miracle.

How warm were Dec 2015 and Dec 2018?

3-6" events are a common thing in the Great Lakes. We haven't had a good clipper in years though. I'm assuming W or NW winds are the best for your region. It's been a terrible start to winter, yet again. Dec 2017 was the last best December. Hoping we can turn things around post Dec 20.

Lysander is literally south of Lake Ontario, I'm surprised. What's your seasonal average? There's been a few lake effect snow outbreaks off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron and of course, the Cleveland storm recently. I'm shocked you haven't gotten anything respectable yet. Terrible winter. We got lucky with that November storm in Toronto but aside from that, it's been extremely frustrating.

That looks almost like a due East wind. The only time the escarpment dries out precip, especially east towards the City, is when winds are out of the SW. In this case, it wouldn't have any impact on Lake Effect in the city. Edit: How much snow have you recorded so far?

And 00Z Nam if extrapolated.

I like that little lake effect snow strip right into Toronto. 4-8"? Hell yeah.

And how did those top 10 winters fair out in the end, 1996 aside.

I thought you got 2" with the storm?

I think 95% of the people in our sub would love a repeat of 07-08 just like 95% of the people in the Mid-Atlantic want a repeat of 09-10. I think we need a repeat of 1964-65.

If it's like the second half of 1984-85, I'll gladly take it. 52" fell in Toronto from Jan-Apr 1985 and it was cold. I believe >30" fell in Chicago as well.

Germany has been on my list for 3 years. Just never got the chance to go. One of my favourite places along with Switzerland. Definitely want to visit Berlin and Munich. My uncle lives near Dusseldorf. I did not know that. Perhaps I'll take a road trip to Ottawa near Christmas to try this poutine. Thanks for the heads up

I agree. We haven't had a phased storm in years. I can't seem to understand why it's been so difficult to achieve that lately. Should be a nice storm for the Mid-Atlantic and NE even if it doesn't phase as it'll blow up once it hits the warm Atlantic waters. Our best opportunity is between Dec 18 and Dec 25 as the block rotates and a small ridge builds in the SE. The PV in Alaska is killing us.

I was going to go this year till Covid happened. It's an 8-hour drive from Toronto. People in Quebec City are more French oriented than Montreal. Essentially, it looks and feels like your average European city. Great for those who want to experience what France is like without actually going there. Quebec has very unique topography. I was north of Mont Tremblant last summer and it was full of mountains, hills and lakes. Has the best Poutine ever.

Not happening. Lead pattern out ahead of the storm supports a suppressed track. If the s/w can slow down considerably, we can have better phasing with the northern stream as it comes on shore a bit too late. Only extreme southern Ohio has a shot at some snow. This is going to be a NE special, almost like a December 2010 redux. I hope we get a chance after Dec 18. Even then I don't see any good reason to be optimistic as the flow is too progressive due to lack of blocking on the Pacific side. This December has been one of the worst in a long time.

Quebec city averages 120" every winter. Average mean temp for DJF is 12.8F. They also average 70 snow days every winter. Fits your narrative. I recommend moving there.