Snowstorms

Feb 2013 blizzard was legit for our region. I'm sure fellow Ontarian posters will attest to that. 10 straight hours of +SN with visibility around 0.2 miles. Widespread 12-18".

Models are adamant on a lake effect band setting up from Toronto to Hamilton on Wednesday A lot of it depends on the storm track. A further north track will mean a stouter lake effect band due to better cloud seeding from the storm. The 3km NAM has moisture getting up north to Ohio which is good for our region. Potential is definitely there for 2-4"+.

GHD 1 was a major bust for us. Glad Chicago was able to record over 20" with that. Off the top of my head, these are the only storms that I've personally experienced that are near the caliber of some of these east coast storms. And even then, they get over 20" sometimes 30" lol. Jan 28-29, 2019: 14" Feb 4-5, 2014: 13" Feb 7-8, 2013: 16" Jan 17-18, 2009: 12" Mar 7-8, 2008: 12" Feb 5-6, 2008: 14" Dec 15-16, 2007: 14"

I agree completely. Boston got over 100" back in 2014-15 lol. Most of them big storms >15". They've been on a crazy run over the last 20 years which pales in comparison to some of our big winters i.e. 2007-08, 2008-09, 2013-14, etc. And yet despite all that, you should see some of the meltdowns in the New England forum lol. Yet were here pondering over storms like GHD 1, March 08 blizzard or Blizzard of 99 still. They've been exceeding seasonal averages with the exception of last year and 2011-12 for a long time. The day we start getting big blizzards like the Blizzard of 99 on a regular basis like some of these east coast folks, we shouldn't compare our petty 3-6" events. I'll take one of those big dogs every winter if that's all we get. And with our geographic location, we'll be able to retain that for a lot longer than them.

NYC's snowfall average has gone way up over the last 20 years. I'm sure it's the same for surrounding areas. There was a time they used to get those 15"+ blizzards every few years but its become a yearly thing now, sometimes twice. So yeah, I'll take that any day over these petty 3-6" events.

And how did those top 10 winters fair out in the end, 1996 aside.

I thought you got 2" with the storm?

I think 95% of the people in our sub would love a repeat of 07-08 just like 95% of the people in the Mid-Atlantic want a repeat of 09-10. I think we need a repeat of 1964-65.

If it's like the second half of 1984-85, I'll gladly take it. 52" fell in Toronto from Jan-Apr 1985 and it was cold. I believe >30" fell in Chicago as well.

Germany has been on my list for 3 years. Just never got the chance to go. One of my favourite places along with Switzerland. Definitely want to visit Berlin and Munich. My uncle lives near Dusseldorf. I did not know that. Perhaps I'll take a road trip to Ottawa near Christmas to try this poutine. Thanks for the heads up

I agree. We haven't had a phased storm in years. I can't seem to understand why it's been so difficult to achieve that lately. Should be a nice storm for the Mid-Atlantic and NE even if it doesn't phase as it'll blow up once it hits the warm Atlantic waters. Our best opportunity is between Dec 18 and Dec 25 as the block rotates and a small ridge builds in the SE. The PV in Alaska is killing us.

I was going to go this year till Covid happened. It's an 8-hour drive from Toronto. People in Quebec City are more French oriented than Montreal. Essentially, it looks and feels like your average European city. Great for those who want to experience what France is like without actually going there. Quebec has very unique topography. I was north of Mont Tremblant last summer and it was full of mountains, hills and lakes. Has the best Poutine ever.

Not happening. Lead pattern out ahead of the storm supports a suppressed track. If the s/w can slow down considerably, we can have better phasing with the northern stream as it comes on shore a bit too late. Only extreme southern Ohio has a shot at some snow. This is going to be a NE special, almost like a December 2010 redux. I hope we get a chance after Dec 18. Even then I don't see any good reason to be optimistic as the flow is too progressive due to lack of blocking on the Pacific side. This December has been one of the worst in a long time.

Quebec city averages 120" every winter. Average mean temp for DJF is 12.8F. They also average 70 snow days every winter. Fits your narrative. I recommend moving there.

Blizzard of 99 redux would make up for it no doubt.

Mid-week threat is looking like an east coast special. Only saving grace now would be a pre Christmas miracle storm.

I was speaking from a nation perspective. 2004-05 was a warm winter nationwide with only some select areas finishing near average. Dec 2003 was warm overall despite Jan-Feb ending up well below average. Regardless, we've seen too many historically warm winters over the past 25 years nationwide.

Not sure what the cause maybe for the lack of consistent wintry weather every season. Almost seems like it’s become a norm now. But what intrigues me the most that could be playing a role is the North Pacific warm pool that's been literally present since 2014. Not sure if it came about due to the prolonged -EPO we had in 2013-14 but our current La Nina and the 2016-2018 La Nina had little to no effect in reducing it. Similarly, we haven't had any sort of Arctic blocking since 2010-11. So, combine the two and what do you get? A slew of historically warm winters and select winter months nationwide, i.e. 2011-12 including Morch, Dec-Jan 2013, Dec 2014, 2015-16, 2016-17, Dec 2018, 2019-2020 and now Dec 2020? Realistically since 2010-11 only 2013-14 and 2014-15 (only Jan-Mar) were cold winters. Go back a bit more and you can add in 1997-2000, 2001-02, 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07 to that list. 2009-10, although cold in America, was warm all around in Canada due to the impressive block. That’s not a coincidence, that is AGW at its finest. And futility records seem to be breaking every season lol.

Euro is zzzz right through Dec 20. Another east coast special.

That was a good spread the wealth type of winter. We got it pretty good here too. I'll take a repeat. Though the Arctic blocking that winter remains unrivaled. Unlikely we'll ever see something of that magnitude for a while.

I got 7" as well. But to be honest, what made this storm seem better than it actually was aside from the fact that it was a frustrating winter, was the massive rain storm a week before lol. A rain storm of that caliber is unheard of in January at our latitudes. We got 3" of rain.

Track is still up in the air, but I wouldn't be surprised if areas north of Barrie end up with 10-20cm (4-8") this weekend. Then again Parry Sound, Muskoka, etc average ~320cm (125") every winter. Their proximity to Georgian Bay helps them considerably. We in Toronto rarely get lake effect snow from Lake Ontario because an east to west wind is extremely rare due to the Coriolis effect. It sucks I know lol. That's why we only average 110-120cm (43-47") every winter. But I'll take what we get.

Well-deserved for Toronto after experiencing 4 futility winters since 2006 lol. Temperatures were marginal even for us. It's been a weird start I agree. Quite a lot of disparity in amounts and precip types even just 20km apart. I had a hunch we'd get maybe an inch as I was looking at last night's HRRR but did not expect to see 2-4" across the GTA with the shortwave. Haha. I'm sure many people near the Lakeshore and south probably think it's another snowless start to winter. YYZ has missing snowfall data since Dec 1 so I’m not exactly sure what the YTD amount is officially but I’d suspect its between 35-40cm (14-16”). I'm at 43.4cm (17.1") on the season as of today. Just for laughs, YYZ recorded 42.8cm (16.8”) back in 2011-12.

Got a surprise 2.2" last night. Looks like a winter wonderland.

In a month you'll get over the weenieness. Trust the process.