Snowstorms

Phase happens later and the flow is too progressive for anything respectable at least for us. Snow line is to far north. Track is ideal on all 12z runs, expect UKMET, but lack of cold air means primarily rain. I'd be disappointed if this was in January but its only November. Still got time, nothing concrete yet, so let’s wait and see.

Looking like a rainer. No real Arctic air and late phase.

I agree. Once you get out of the city area into the more rural communities, it gets considerably colder. Ohh that sounds rough haha. Canadian winters are known for their cold more than snow expect in the Great Lakes or Atlantic Canada where its both. Where you and I live, we don't experience those constant cold days thankfully. Though if you haven't visited Banff in the winter, you definitely should. It's on my bucket list.

That's the same concept with cold. People in Western Canada laugh at us when our temperatures are in the teens or single digits and we say "it's really cold outside". Try telling that to someone who lives in -20F weather everyday in the winter.

Always appreciate your thoughts and posts when you do get the chance to come here. And congrats on joining TWN. This storm has a lot of moving parts and variables to reach a concrete conclusion until Friday night at the earliest in my opinion.

00Z GGEM is a good hit for Indiana and Western Ohio.

The only storm in recent times that I can think of that even comes remotely close to the set-up depicted on the models would be the late Feb 2010 storm. See link below and look at the 500mb maps and Sea Level Pressure maps. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/25-Feb-10-NationalRadarImagery.html

Now we got the PNA ridge in 2020.

The leading ridge out ahead of the Low sort of becomes a temporary block (like a West Based -NAO) and the upper level ridge kind of becomes one with the massive PNA ridge out west. That's why it stalls out. Very unusual yeah.

I'll take the Euro about 100-150 miles further east.

Dec 95 wasn't as nearly as good as the other 3. Only got 13.3" locally which is only slightly above our monthly avg. Whereas we got >25" in Dec 1975, 2007 and 2008.

The entire thing looks like a mess on the GFS esp that vort map.

Jan 2009 redux? Albeit the AO was slightly positive that month.

Still got about 3-4" on the ground from the storm on Sunday. Models have about 1-2" tonight across Toronto before the changeover. Closer to 1cm near the Lake.

Western Canada is torching, Ontario is torching, we're all torching. The entire "source region" is above freezing first week of Dec.

That Nov 1950 storm is YYZ's second largest November storm on record. 12" in a single day and a final total of 15". But I can see why DTW got 6.3". Temps were marginal. Was it a Gulf Low?

The Euro did a 500 mile shift in one run. And they say the GFS is bad.

As of this morning were at 8.3" for the season. So about 18% of our yearly snowfall. Wish we got more but an east-west wind orientation off Lake Ontario is rare. You guys in Upstate NY get all the fun from Lake Ontario.

7.5" at YYZ as of 9:00pm. Unofficially the third largest storm ever recorded at YYZ in November. Out of the top 10, there's been 5 since 1991 including last year. Just measured 8.8" at my house. Some compaction going on as it was heavy wet snow.

After all the crap Kitchener went thru in the summer its finally winning eh.

We're getting a nice snowstorm up this way today. Nearing 8" and still snowing steadily.

Yup. Quite the gradient across the area. A lot of areas near the Lake, like yourself, had minimal accumulations but as soon as you went 20km inland, amounts picked up drastically. 19.2cm (7.5") as of 6pm in my area. It'll likely be the third largest November storm ever recorded in a single day at YYZ. Top 2 records are >30cm (12"). Haha. Three back to back snowy Novembers is a big win in my books especially after going 2009-2012, 2015 and 2016 completely snowless. I was doubtful yesterday as we were riding a thin line with the mixing line so close by but thanks to strong dynamic cooling, we lucked out. ~2" is still not bad given the historic warmth we experienced less than 2 weeks ago. I'm sure it's better than that 2009-2012 run for Detroit as well.

Got out of my house today after a week since I had my wisdom teeth out. Took a couple shots of the snow just north of my house. YYZ is reporting 5.2" as of 4pm. I just measured 6.5" and it's been coming down steadily. Going to make a run for 8" if not more at this rate. What a freaking surprise storm. Let it snow.

Really coming down now. Just measured 2.5" (6.3cm).

Getting a nice winter storm today. Could end up with a good 4-6" by tonight but it'll melt by mid week. The storm later this month is intriguing. If it pans out, I wouldn't be surprised to see our first widespread lake effect snow outbreak. That would lay down a nice snow pack across the Lakes area.