Snowstorms

Extended MEI data in the link below. MEI stands for Multivariate ENSO Index. Slightly different than ONI but I find it more transparent. 1931-32 was a warm neutral. 1930-31 was a strong El Nino. La Nina didn't happen till 1933-34. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html

Nothing but rainers on the GFS lol. Have your umbrellas ready boys.

I'm assuming that's the La Nina fighting to take control of the current pattern? Looks like a hybrid Aleutian ridge. Aleutian ridges are a bit too far west to allow us in the East to cash in on true arctic air as opposed to the EPO but it'll at least get the source region cold. It's way above average across Western Canada this week. It's 40F in Winnipeg today and their average high is supposed to be 18F. That block across the Ural region looks intriguing too. Didn’t Dec 08 feature a prominent North Pacific ridge?

Nice to see you folks getting some snow even if it's not a whole lot. Been tough for the Mid-Atlantic lately. Hope you guys can cash in on some storms this winter which I understand can be difficult in a La Nina.

I agree. East to West winds are rare. You guys in Upstate NY get all the fun when winds are out of the NW or WNW. This year sucks for lake effect so far. Yeah check it out. Two 20" storms and one 16". Truly epic. https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2008&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=toronto&timeframe=2&Month=3&Day=1&Year=1870

That Blizzard of 99 was epic. I was a little kid so I don't recall but it dumped 16-24" across Toronto. We finished Jan 1999 with 46". They called the army to help shovel the snow. I believe its in our top 5. March 1870 takes the cake with 62". Big storms are rare here but 12-16" storms can happen every 1-3 years. 07-08 had 3 of them and another 3 8-12" storms.

Quebec city averages 120" a year. They got 220" back in 07-08 lol.

I wonder if that record breaking -EPO in 2013-14 and 2014-15 is somehow connected towards what Anthony is alluding to in his tweet here. Because after 2014, SST's in the North Pacific skyrocketed and we haven't been able to shake it off since. Coincidentally, we haven't had a cold winter since then either. I wonder if there is an underlying relationship tied back to that warm pool. The PDO also flipped to positive in early 2014 as a result. Although we maybe in a -PDO right now, it's far from the -PDO phase we had from 2007-2014. The strong El Nino in 2015-16 may have further enhanced that warm pool and the lack of any strong La Nina configuration since 2010-2011 has prevented SST's in the Pacific from properly cooling off. Just my 2 cents.

Wonder what's the cause. Thing's just changed after that deep -EPO winter in 2013-14.

Yes it does look a bit stormier but nothing extraordinary. Overall look isn't great especially if you like snow cover. And not even a single fantasy snowstorm on the GFS. It's bad.

That winter literally started Jan 25th or something and ended March 7th. Barely 1.5 months. That's it. Better than 2011-12 though lol.

I don't like the word stormy and Nina in the same sentence. Just because it's a La Nina doesn't necessarily mean it'll be stormy for our sub-forum. The same logic can be applied with El Nino's. The reason I say that is because there have been a number of stormless Nina's in the past, i.e. 2011-12, 1999-00 and 1988-89 just to name a few. Is stormless even a word lol? La Nina's tend to enhance the polar jet which results in more periodic cold shots than El Nino's and more clippers. El Nino's enhance the subtropical jet because it intensifies the Hadley Circulation creating more Pacific Jet extensions and milder air for us and Canada and cooler weather across the SE due to constant cloud cover and dynamic cooling. So I'd take my chances with a La Nina over an El Nino any day. I mean out of our top 5 snowiest winters, 4 are La nina's in Toronto. But I wouldn't expect a plethora of storms just because we have one. Right now La Nina forcing is being shunted due to other forces like the EPO/NAO/AO hence the lack of cold and snow in typical Nina Decembers.

Yeah he actually did. And I naively believed him. I think it was cause of those 90's winters and 2001-02 which made him reach to such a preposterous conclusion. But then of course that 2002-2005 stretch was snowy and cold. Probably thought it would be winters last hurrah before it ceased to exist in 2010.

Not all Nina's are torches by Feb/Mar. Some years include 1995-96, 1988-89, 1983-84, 1971-72 and 1964-65. Areas in the Mid-Atlantic need blocking on the Atlantic side more than the Pacific. That's the only caveat compared to us further north where we can still get snow despite a +NAO/AO. I'm not sure if parts of the Mid-Atlantic had any luck in those winters I listed above, but I wouldn't write off Feb/Mar just yet because it is possible under the right circumstances. There is a possibility we could see a SSW come Jan.

I agree. Canada isn't going into an Ice box with a +EPO. If there was at least an Aleutian ridge it could create some cross polar flow but nope. Far from your typical Nina pattern.

If it's any consolation, the GGEM/RGEM a few weeks ago was locked in with <2" for my area. We ended up with 8-10". It doesn't seem to do good on dynamic cooling which is the case here.

Emotions are running high here. It's only Dec 4 lol. We should be thankful it still snows. According to my grade 3 teacher back in 2002, snow was going to become a "distant memory" by 2010 due to global warming. Well we've proved him wrong.

Melted pretty quick here. I guess cause the snow was very powdery. Yes I agree. Very short attention spans. Winters like 2012-13 are perfect examples where it was fairly mild until mid January before winter finally started up. The general public as a result considered it a snowy and cold winter because of a few weeks lol. But we both know how mild it was.

This. Our November snow melted in 3 days and the snow we got 2 days ago melted too despite being 14" on the season. Down here and towards SE Michigan, snow cover really doesn't start to build and pack on until after mid-December. But regardless its only Dec 4 and winter just started as you stated. I've gotten accustomed to the gloomy dark days of winter since it's a common thing here and we get less than 9 hours of daylight per day right now.

Nah. The November storm was a nice treat after the many snowless Novembers we had from 2006-2017. I'll take that as a win and well deserved after that hideous run. YYZ is up ~14" for the season which is an amazing start and I hope we can continue that. Almost everyone around us since 2009 has had some sort of record-breaking winter (in a good way). While we keep perpetuating 2007-08 and 2008-09, where many in this sub forum did well on anyways. We deserve a record-breaking winter because neither 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2017-18 were as it was for others. 3/5 futility winters happened since 2006-07 for a broader perspective which is insane. And to make it worse, 2005-06, 2015-16 and 2016-17 are in the top 10 or top 15 as well. So no, I am not ready for Spring. You need to expand your checklist because this ain’t it, chief.

Parts of New England about to get another blizzard. Rinse and repeat. They stay winning.

Warm sfc temps have limited accumulations across Toronto today. Amazing radar returns but surface is too warm for any accumulation even away from the Lake.

Don't need an SSW to have cross polar flow. Although having an SSW would help to provide sustained cold, it's not always needed for our area. If we can get into a more typical Nina pattern, i.e. poleward Aleutian ridge, it would create enough cross polar flow to allow for some decent cold outbreaks. In that scenario, the coldest anomalies would be west of us, but it would set the stage for an active storm track through the area and ultimately lake effect snow outbreaks.

He's just having a weenie moment. Must be those LR GFS fantasy maps.

Interesting little set-up tomorrow from Kitchener to Oshawa. Potential for 1-3" (3-8cm) across Toronto tomorrow.