Snowstorms

7.5" at YYZ as of 9:00pm. Unofficially the third largest storm ever recorded at YYZ in November. Out of the top 10, there's been 5 since 1991 including last year. Just measured 8.8" at my house. Some compaction going on as it was heavy wet snow.

After all the crap Kitchener went thru in the summer its finally winning eh.

We're getting a nice snowstorm up this way today. Nearing 8" and still snowing steadily.

Yup. Quite the gradient across the area. A lot of areas near the Lake, like yourself, had minimal accumulations but as soon as you went 20km inland, amounts picked up drastically. 19.2cm (7.5") as of 6pm in my area. It'll likely be the third largest November storm ever recorded in a single day at YYZ. Top 2 records are >30cm (12"). Haha. Three back to back snowy Novembers is a big win in my books especially after going 2009-2012, 2015 and 2016 completely snowless. I was doubtful yesterday as we were riding a thin line with the mixing line so close by but thanks to strong dynamic cooling, we lucked out. ~2" is still not bad given the historic warmth we experienced less than 2 weeks ago. I'm sure it's better than that 2009-2012 run for Detroit as well.

Got out of my house today after a week since I had my wisdom teeth out. Took a couple shots of the snow just north of my house. YYZ is reporting 5.2" as of 4pm. I just measured 6.5" and it's been coming down steadily. Going to make a run for 8" if not more at this rate. What a freaking surprise storm. Let it snow.

Really coming down now. Just measured 2.5" (6.3cm).

Getting a nice winter storm today. Could end up with a good 4-6" by tonight but it'll melt by mid week. The storm later this month is intriguing. If it pans out, I wouldn't be surprised to see our first widespread lake effect snow outbreak. That would lay down a nice snow pack across the Lakes area.

YYZ currently reporting SN with visibility down to 0.5 miles. Up to 1.5" as of 11:00am in my area and coming down nicely. EC has issued a weather advisory for Toronto calling for upwards of 6" by tonight.

I think Kitchener could get 10-15cm. Higher elevation and more dynamic cooling. You'll be in the sweet spot.

Looks like a Nino if you ask me but it's not a bad look. Very strange given the background moderate La Nina. On the plus side, models have been slowly weakening the AK vortex. Hopefully we can build some ridging up in the Aleutians and get Canada cold later in December.

Growing confident for tomorrows event. There seems to be a model wide consensus regarding amounts for Toronto and surrounding areas. Those near the Lake accumulations will likely remain <1" (~3cm). But as you get away from the Lake towards the 401 and further north, accumulations will pick up drastically. As it stands now, I'm going with 2.5" (4-6cm) for Toronto (YYZ) and upwards of 4-6" (10-15cm) for areas in Vaughan, Brampton and further north. If dynamic cooling initiates earlier and quicker, then there's a good chance Toronto could over perform. EC has issued widespread weather statements. 2-4" (5-10cm) for Toronto

28 day closure. Schools, daycare and liquor stores remain open too. But capacity in the stores open will be reduced to 50% at a time.

Toronto going into a lockdown Mon @12:00am. All gyms, fitness centers, restaurants, bars, hair salons, recreational centers, casinos, convention centers and I believe shopping malls are all closing. Only essential stores like grocery stores and department stores will remain open. All restaurants will be offering curb-side pick up or delivery only, no dine-in. We been averaging >1000 cases a day for a few weeks now. When compared to you guys its nothing obviously but 85% of these 1000+ are in the Toronto area. Hopefully other American cities follow through.

That's exactly it. Half the time it's just mood flakes. That's what happens when you live downwind of the Lakes. And lake effect snow compacts way to quickly. Not a huge fan. One time we got 6" in <2 hours in Dec 2017 and in 2 days it compacted to 2" despite temperatures <20F.

That's the norm every winter in Toronto. Sun comes out maybe 30% of the time in DJF.

I like the ridge placement on the Euro out west, ideal for our region. Got a half ass block near Newfoundland too which could help funnel some cold air in. Interesting, nonetheless. When Alek is excited, you know it’s real.

Definitely getting a little excited for Sun night-Mon for our first potential snow event of the season. As it stands now, areas close to the Lake will likely remain as rain with some mixing possible. Just away from the Lake is where it gets tricky. Upper air temps (700mb and 850mb) look to stay below freezing as a cold HP moves in tomorrow and funnels a cold NE wind out ahead of the impending WAA from the LP. That means there will be heavy precip rates at the height of the storm. The tricky part is the sfc temps which will likely be around freezing if not slightly above. We'll have to see if dynamic cooling can help us out but that's strictly from an observational standpoint. Quicker dynamic cooling means the GTA will see ~2-3" (4-7cm) and slower means ~1" (1-3cm).

18z NAM has ~3-4" (7-10cm) for Toronto Sun night-Mon. I don't buy it but there's a possibility folks from Detroit-Ottawa could see their potential first snow event of the season. Upper air temps will be solidly below freezing but sfc temperatures will be marginal at best unless we see some CAD.

The cold October we saw this year was unusual for a Nina. In fact, the upcoming pattern looks more like a Nino than a Nina. When you have such a strong PV parked over Alaska to start December, it usually sticks around for most of the month. Not throwing in the towel for December, I'm just saying the pattern doesn't look great. Yes, I agree we do see earlier snows, in some cases, during November but that means nothing if we go multiple weeks during the heart of winter without any sustained cold/snow. Last winter is a perfect example. I don't like considering snow as a statistic to derive if a winter is warm/cold. Snow is just a byproduct, for lack of a better word, and you just need to be around the freezing mark for it to snow. For some cities just because it’s around the freezing mark, it doesn’t mean it’s below normal. In the last 30 years, we've seen exceptionally warm winters as compared to the preceding 30 years. For example, 1997-2000, 2001-02, 2005-06, etc. 2008-09 finished below average in Toronto but thanks to December and January. Feb/Mar 2009 were not cold by any means even for Detroit. In that regard 2009-10 and 2017-18 both finished near average to slightly below but again thanks to a couple cold stretches. It wasn't sustained which is my point.

I agree since 2005-06 we've only had 3 actual cold winters, i.e. 2010-11, 2013-14 and 2014-15. 2006-07 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Jan to early Mar. 2008-09 was only cold from mid-Dec to early Feb. 2009-10 featured couple cold shots through DJF but nothing extraordinary. 2017-18 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Dec to early Feb. 2018-19 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Jan to early Mar. Cold winters are becoming increasingly rare it would seem.

I agree we managed to finish above average with ~18" in December 2016. Even last December as warm as it was, we managed to finish near average. Other warm Decembers like 2014 we were able to squeeze in a surprise 7" storm. I mean it's possible to get some snow in an overall warm month if the transient cold shots can be timed right with a developing storm like we saw in Dec 2007. 1988-89 was dry overall and a crappy Nina winter. You're right. Nov 1975/2008 both featured a warm-up. In fact, 1975-76 and 2008-09 were in many ways alike overall. But I don't think this December will be anything like Dec 75 or Dec 08. Not until we start seeing some ridging around Alaska to create a cross polar flow as most of Western Canada looks to be exceptionally warm to start December.

There's nothing I see that would suggest your average cold La Nina December this year. Both the GEFS/EPS are adamant on developing and maintaining the PV around Alaska to begin December. On top of that stratospheric temperatures are near record lows which is not good if you're hoping for a -AO/NAO. One thing that is perplexing is the El Nino flavor to the upcoming pattern. Models have a somewhat active STJ and if we can keep getting some transient cold shots, i.e. Dec 2007, we can cash in. I don't think December will be as warm as Dec 2011, but a blend of Dec 2016, 2007 and 1988 sounds more realistic. Overall, I’m not impressed with the upcoming pattern. The cold air is locked up in the Arctic and Alaska while most of Canada bathes in warmth. Over the last 10-15 years, our winter months have been shrinking. Most of our snow/cold has been occurring over a 3-6-week time frame. Last 4 winters are prime examples.

That's a terrible pattern. PV parked over Alaska with a flat ridge just west of Hawaii. On top of that we got a massive trough over Greenland which is indicative of +AO/NAO. The cold over our region is transient at best driven largely by the +PNA across the PNW. Give's me 2011-12 vibes.

Wind gusts peaked at 70mph. You're right it's probably foam insulation board. Hope nobody got hurt or got their cars damaged.

This was over the weekend. Very careless and I suspect some people will file lawsuits lol. https://www.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/juux1a/heavy_winds_causing_plywood_to_fly_off_a_yonge_st/