Snowstorms

We need a repeat of the February 1965 snowstorm. 20" locally. I'd gladly take it again.

Snowpocalypse.

Interesting set-up. Wouldn't be surprised to see 10-20cm from Oakville to Hamilton. Depending on the wind orientation and approaching storm clouds tomorrow morning, we'll have to see how strong and persistent the band is in Toronto. For now, 2-5cm sounds reasonable for the city.

Icon has 6-9" for Buffalo lol

12z RGEM is coming in further north and west as well. Aligned with 3km NAM. Has accumulating snow in Buffalo and Syracuse. Maybe a couple inches esp for Syracuse? Sweet LES band in Toronto before it moves further south as winds change orientation. Not a huge expert on lake effect so maybe somebody can chime in on that for me.

That's a sweet lake effect band just west of Toronto tomorrow. With a further north track, it’ll help reduce the dry air in the atmosphere and help seed the lake clouds for better lake effect for us. Good all-around for all of us in ON and NY. Let’s see if the RGEM follows suit.

To add to what you said. Big Dog's just aren't frequent in our area because of our geographic location. With the Atlantic running exceptionally warm over the last 10-20 years, the average clipper usually blows up to a full blown Nor'easter and slams the NE including Boston. New England meltdowns are hilarious. Even a 40" winter wouldn't satisfy their appetite. . But great points. I always appreciate your in-depth analysis and posts. I could tell you're a hardcore stats guy so I try not to challenge you on anything stat wise. Detroit and Boston have definitely seen a sizeable increase in snowfall over the last 20 years compared to other cities. But 20 years is a very small sample size. The averages, atleast for us, are bolstered by exceptionally snowy winters like 2002-03, 2004-05, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2013-14, etc. Would be nice to experience storms like the Blizzard of 99 every 2-3 years. Is that too much to ask for? We need a Christmas miracle.

It's 2020, it's acceptable this year.

12Z hasn't ran yet. Let's see.

Isn't Lake effect off Ontario usually all winter long because it's a deeper lake? There are exceptions of course during cold winters like 2013-14 or 2014-15. Unlike Lake Erie which usually freezes over because its shallower. But over 100" in a week? WOW! That's insane!!!

Feb 2013 blizzard was legit for our region. I'm sure fellow Ontarian posters will attest to that. 10 straight hours of +SN with visibility around 0.2 miles. Widespread 12-18".

Models are adamant on a lake effect band setting up from Toronto to Hamilton on Wednesday A lot of it depends on the storm track. A further north track will mean a stouter lake effect band due to better cloud seeding from the storm. The 3km NAM has moisture getting up north to Ohio which is good for our region. Potential is definitely there for 2-4"+.

GHD 1 was a major bust for us. Glad Chicago was able to record over 20" with that. Off the top of my head, these are the only storms that I've personally experienced that are near the caliber of some of these east coast storms. And even then, they get over 20" sometimes 30" lol. Jan 28-29, 2019: 14" Feb 4-5, 2014: 13" Feb 7-8, 2013: 16" Jan 17-18, 2009: 12" Mar 7-8, 2008: 12" Feb 5-6, 2008: 14" Dec 15-16, 2007: 14"

I agree completely. Boston got over 100" back in 2014-15 lol. Most of them big storms >15". They've been on a crazy run over the last 20 years which pales in comparison to some of our big winters i.e. 2007-08, 2008-09, 2013-14, etc. And yet despite all that, you should see some of the meltdowns in the New England forum lol. Yet were here pondering over storms like GHD 1, March 08 blizzard or Blizzard of 99 still. They've been exceeding seasonal averages with the exception of last year and 2011-12 for a long time. The day we start getting big blizzards like the Blizzard of 99 on a regular basis like some of these east coast folks, we shouldn't compare our petty 3-6" events. I'll take one of those big dogs every winter if that's all we get. And with our geographic location, we'll be able to retain that for a lot longer than them.

42.1F? Wow that's warm. The mean at YYZ was 39.3F. December 2015 was the warmest ever recorded and also least snowiest ever. Good stuff. If Jan isn't frigid, you might even get lake effect mid-late Feb if it can start-up lol. Cool. Will check that link out right now. Thanks!

NYC's snowfall average has gone way up over the last 20 years. I'm sure it's the same for surrounding areas. There was a time they used to get those 15"+ blizzards every few years but its become a yearly thing now, sometimes twice. So yeah, I'll take that any day over these petty 3-6" events.

A Christmas Miracle.

How warm were Dec 2015 and Dec 2018?

3-6" events are a common thing in the Great Lakes. We haven't had a good clipper in years though. I'm assuming W or NW winds are the best for your region. It's been a terrible start to winter, yet again. Dec 2017 was the last best December. Hoping we can turn things around post Dec 20.

Lysander is literally south of Lake Ontario, I'm surprised. What's your seasonal average? There's been a few lake effect snow outbreaks off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron and of course, the Cleveland storm recently. I'm shocked you haven't gotten anything respectable yet. Terrible winter. We got lucky with that November storm in Toronto but aside from that, it's been extremely frustrating.

That looks almost like a due East wind. The only time the escarpment dries out precip, especially east towards the City, is when winds are out of the SW. In this case, it wouldn't have any impact on Lake Effect in the city. Edit: How much snow have you recorded so far?

And 00Z Nam if extrapolated.

I like that little lake effect snow strip right into Toronto. 4-8"? Hell yeah.

And how did those top 10 winters fair out in the end, 1996 aside.

I thought you got 2" with the storm?