Snowstorms

This. Our November snow melted in 3 days and the snow we got 2 days ago melted too despite being 14" on the season. Down here and towards SE Michigan, snow cover really doesn't start to build and pack on until after mid-December. But regardless its only Dec 4 and winter just started as you stated. I've gotten accustomed to the gloomy dark days of winter since it's a common thing here and we get less than 9 hours of daylight per day right now.

Nah. The November storm was a nice treat after the many snowless Novembers we had from 2006-2017. I'll take that as a win and well deserved after that hideous run. YYZ is up ~14" for the season which is an amazing start and I hope we can continue that. Almost everyone around us since 2009 has had some sort of record-breaking winter (in a good way). While we keep perpetuating 2007-08 and 2008-09, where many in this sub forum did well on anyways. We deserve a record-breaking winter because neither 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2017-18 were as it was for others. 3/5 futility winters happened since 2006-07 for a broader perspective which is insane. And to make it worse, 2005-06, 2015-16 and 2016-17 are in the top 10 or top 15 as well. So no, I am not ready for Spring. You need to expand your checklist because this ain’t it, chief.

Parts of New England about to get another blizzard. Rinse and repeat. They stay winning.

Warm sfc temps have limited accumulations across Toronto today. Amazing radar returns but surface is too warm for any accumulation even away from the Lake.

Don't need an SSW to have cross polar flow. Although having an SSW would help to provide sustained cold, it's not always needed for our area. If we can get into a more typical Nina pattern, i.e. poleward Aleutian ridge, it would create enough cross polar flow to allow for some decent cold outbreaks. In that scenario, the coldest anomalies would be west of us, but it would set the stage for an active storm track through the area and ultimately lake effect snow outbreaks.

He's just having a weenie moment. Must be those LR GFS fantasy maps.

Interesting little set-up tomorrow from Kitchener to Oshawa. Potential for 1-3" (3-8cm) across Toronto tomorrow.

Same story up this way. Only 1981-82, 1984-85 and 1992-93 were above average and the rest were ratters. 80's winters were cold though. Maybe not as a whole winter but there was a lot of cold months.

Come through. There's 2 feet of snow on the ground 70 miles north of me and 4" here. If you say you're coming for the snow you'll get a pass. Nobody comes to Canada for that.

It is possible if we get a phased storm. Though we haven't seen a true phased storm in years. I believe 2013-14 featured some spread the wealth type events. Only other possibility is having an active storm track where everyone gets a piece of the pie, albeit in different storms.

I meant to say for the entire sub forum.

Without diving into too much detail, both the GEFS and EPS offer some hope after Dec 10th. The current +PNA retrogrades into the EPO region and that offers up our first legitimate cold shot of the season ~Dec 12-14. Would likely feature a rainer around that time frame before things settle into a wintrier pattern thereafter. Eventually due to the background Nina forcing, the ridge makes its way towards the Aleutians/AK which cools most of Canada down as the PV sits overtop. In other words, the current Nino like pattern eventually gives way to a more typical Nina like December around mid-month. There is also increasing chances for Arctic blocking around mid-December as well. I’d say our first winter storm will be ~Dec 15 to Dec 20.

I was perplexed myself. We had that surprise 8-10" storm on Nov 22. Most models only had 2-4" but we overperformed due to stronger dynamic cooling. I've never seen the two hand in hand.

Finished with ~4.0" yesterday bringing my seasonal total up to 13.9" for the season. YYZ is just over 12.0” as well. Nothing crazy compared to Ohio. Probably their biggest storm since Mar 08 if I'm not mistaken.

Some Nov stats at YYZ. Records at YYZ only go back to 1937. Snowfall: 9.2" - average is 3.0". Snowiest Nov since Nov 2002. Featured biggest single day snowstorm in 70 years Mean temp: 44.2F - average is 38.6F. 2nd warmest Nov on record behind 2001. What a crazy month.

GFS hr 360... yeah.. gimme that right now.

After today its zzzz for the next 10 days.

Snowing rather nicely with that band up this way.

This airmass sucks. Happened to us with today's storm. Storm tracked just west of the Apps, which in any normal year would be a 12"+ storm, but instead we got rain. Got 3" of back end snow this morning as the LP rotated. Maybe another 1-2” later tonight. Hope there is stronger dynamic cooling with this one for you.

I agree it hasn't been exceptionally wet or anything. This airmass is putrid. Not conductive for any widespread snow or storms. Without any upper-level blocking, the flow is too progressive for any decent storms. Mostly overrunning events so far, except today.

Facts. Although 2013, 2016 and 2017 were pretty legit. Dec 2017 was our coldest Dec since 2000.

It's been active... Today is our third storm or weather event, whatever you want to call it, since Nov 22. Potential for a 4th this weekend but it'll likely end up east of the subforum. STJ is quite active right now, surprisingly for a La Nina, while the polar jet remains suppressed.

3" so far in my area. Potential for another 2-4" by tomorrow morning. This airmass is putrid. Hoping there's a pattern change by mid December to allow for better storm opportunities and lake effect.

Definitely. Last storm we were all riding a thin line. Ended up with a surprise 22cm since I'm away from the Lake. I'm at ~7.5cm so far. I agree, this is one of those all-day type of events but still not bad. EC upped their forecast to upwards of 15cm (6") for Toronto. Based on the latest surface obs, the LP is currently sitting over us right now. Things will start up to pick again later in the afternoon as the Low rotates so I wouldn’t be surprised if you end up with 15-20cm (6-8”) by tonight.

Sorry I had to.