Snowstorms

This month is running over 7 degrees above average. Coupled with over 4" of rain and you'd think it was March or November. Garbage. Atleast we somehow managed 11.6" of snow lol. I'll take that as a W.

Next weekend's storm is trending towards an East Coast special.

Raining like a bitch. It's even crazier when you consider that big rain storm we had 2 weeks ago lol.

Looks like a mix between Nino and Nina. Not the greatest look actually. Lack of blocking means any cold will be transient. This pattern is downright brutal.

Mar 08 blizzard redux. Let's get it.

EC just issued a rainfall warning for us. Gonna be a soaker tonight. As for snow, it all comes down to sfc temps. I think areas near the lake will get next to nothing. Both 12z NAM 3km and HRDPS have ~2.0" for YYZ. HRRR has nothing. What do you think?

I agree. Expectations for this winter were really high back in Oct-Nov. Fast forward to Jan 24 and were breaking records. Just not the ones we want.

I believe that warm pool is largely misunderstood. In the past and even now some people attributed that warm pool to the EPO. For example, the strong -EPO we saw in 2013-14 and 2014-15 was, as some believe, linked to the warm pool. But I believe the two aren't connected in that sense. Similarly, some people attributed the strong Atlantic blocking (NAO/AO) in 2008-2011 to the low solar activity. About 10 years later were seeing similar solar activity and yet the stratospheric PV is as strong as ever with no signs of any Arctic blocking. Another argument could be made for the October Siberian snow cover and Arctic blocking. They're all just theories and not enough concrete evidence to back them up.

Looks more like early April than early Feb. Need a La Nina to shake this up.

Geographic location is everything in winters like this. But even in colder winters we can all get rainers lol. The Lakes regulate temperatures quite a bit and our close proximity to the Atlantic and GOM helps us avoid brutal cold winters.

NAM says Toronto could get 3-5" of cement by Sunday lol. Seems like areas near the Lake will likely get <2".

Going to be mostly rain before a switch over to wet snow especially across higher elevations away from the Lake. NAM 3km has ~4" for Toronto but that all depends how fast temps drop on Sat.

I'm ready for Alek's rainer tom night in the GTA.

How strong is the correlation between ENSO and the NAO/AO? Seems like weak ENSO events (Niña or Niño) are more volatile and could go either way. Perhaps the lack of Atlantic blocking in recent years could be attributed to sea ice loss in the summer and heat release.

The NAM 3km is interesting. It starts off as rain but quickly transitions over to wet snow near the end of the run. Temps at 850mb begin cooling down pretty quick. Reminds me of the late Feb '13 storm where we got 8" of cement lol. Edit: Kuchera maps have 1-2" by 60 hrs.

Yeah I agree. It's not the best set-up for anything big or widespread. I wouldn't discount a slushy ~2" for now.

The mesoscale models, once in range, will be able to pick up changes in surface and 850mb temperatures better. How fast the upper level low closes off will determine how it interacts with the developing coastal. A 50 mile shift either way could mean a big difference for the GTA.

Both! The initial low ended up further west and stronger compared to yesterdays 12z runs. Consequently, more warmer air creeps into the GTA. That slight shift means we end up too far west for any decent precip from the coastal low once the energy does transfer. Oshawa and Kingston fare much better due to stronger thermal cooling. Tonight's 00z runs will be key if this trend continues or we end up somewhere in the middle.

Alek's calls this winter have been $$.

Toronto called the army in 1999 after ~47" fell in less than 2 weeks lol.

I agree, without the AO/NAO or EPO block, the PNA itself is helpless. It's true a positive PNA can help us avoid a full out torch but without any support from other indices, were stuck in this pattern. Most of Canada is above normal now as the cold air retreats back to Alaska and the Arctic.

A cold Alaskan winter was bound to happen again after the 2011-12 debacle.

12z CMC goes from rain to wet snow for the GTA. 3-5" of wet snow to be precise. As the initial low wraps around just south of us, the warmer air creeps its way into the GTA. Once the coastal begins developing, we'll see how fast the thermals cool thereafter. Edit: Not overly optimistic right now. It's a pretty complex set-up and timing is everything.

This ain't the winter for snow cover.