Snowstorms

I think 95% of the people in our sub would love a repeat of 07-08 just like 95% of the people in the Mid-Atlantic want a repeat of 09-10. I think we need a repeat of 1964-65.

If it's like the second half of 1984-85, I'll gladly take it. 52" fell in Toronto from Jan-Apr 1985 and it was cold. I believe >30" fell in Chicago as well.

Germany has been on my list for 3 years. Just never got the chance to go. One of my favourite places along with Switzerland. Definitely want to visit Berlin and Munich. My uncle lives near Dusseldorf. I did not know that. Perhaps I'll take a road trip to Ottawa near Christmas to try this poutine. Thanks for the heads up

I agree. We haven't had a phased storm in years. I can't seem to understand why it's been so difficult to achieve that lately. Should be a nice storm for the Mid-Atlantic and NE even if it doesn't phase as it'll blow up once it hits the warm Atlantic waters. Our best opportunity is between Dec 18 and Dec 25 as the block rotates and a small ridge builds in the SE. The PV in Alaska is killing us.

I was going to go this year till Covid happened. It's an 8-hour drive from Toronto. People in Quebec City are more French oriented than Montreal. Essentially, it looks and feels like your average European city. Great for those who want to experience what France is like without actually going there. Quebec has very unique topography. I was north of Mont Tremblant last summer and it was full of mountains, hills and lakes. Has the best Poutine ever.

Not happening. Lead pattern out ahead of the storm supports a suppressed track. If the s/w can slow down considerably, we can have better phasing with the northern stream as it comes on shore a bit too late. Only extreme southern Ohio has a shot at some snow. This is going to be a NE special, almost like a December 2010 redux. I hope we get a chance after Dec 18. Even then I don't see any good reason to be optimistic as the flow is too progressive due to lack of blocking on the Pacific side. This December has been one of the worst in a long time.

Quebec city averages 120" every winter. Average mean temp for DJF is 12.8F. They also average 70 snow days every winter. Fits your narrative. I recommend moving there.

Blizzard of 99 redux would make up for it no doubt.

Mid-week threat is looking like an east coast special. Only saving grace now would be a pre Christmas miracle storm.

I was speaking from a nation perspective. 2004-05 was a warm winter nationwide with only some select areas finishing near average. Dec 2003 was warm overall despite Jan-Feb ending up well below average. Regardless, we've seen too many historically warm winters over the past 25 years nationwide.

Not sure what the cause maybe for the lack of consistent wintry weather every season. Almost seems like it’s become a norm now. But what intrigues me the most that could be playing a role is the North Pacific warm pool that's been literally present since 2014. Not sure if it came about due to the prolonged -EPO we had in 2013-14 but our current La Nina and the 2016-2018 La Nina had little to no effect in reducing it. Similarly, we haven't had any sort of Arctic blocking since 2010-11. So, combine the two and what do you get? A slew of historically warm winters and select winter months nationwide, i.e. 2011-12 including Morch, Dec-Jan 2013, Dec 2014, 2015-16, 2016-17, Dec 2018, 2019-2020 and now Dec 2020? Realistically since 2010-11 only 2013-14 and 2014-15 (only Jan-Mar) were cold winters. Go back a bit more and you can add in 1997-2000, 2001-02, 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07 to that list. 2009-10, although cold in America, was warm all around in Canada due to the impressive block. That’s not a coincidence, that is AGW at its finest. And futility records seem to be breaking every season lol.

Euro is zzzz right through Dec 20. Another east coast special.

That was a good spread the wealth type of winter. We got it pretty good here too. I'll take a repeat. Though the Arctic blocking that winter remains unrivaled. Unlikely we'll ever see something of that magnitude for a while.

I got 7" as well. But to be honest, what made this storm seem better than it actually was aside from the fact that it was a frustrating winter, was the massive rain storm a week before lol. A rain storm of that caliber is unheard of in January at our latitudes. We got 3" of rain.

I got 2.2". It sucks it'll melt by tomorrow lol. Another rainer on tap for us this weekend.

Track is still up in the air, but I wouldn't be surprised if areas north of Barrie end up with 10-20cm (4-8") this weekend. Then again Parry Sound, Muskoka, etc average ~320cm (125") every winter. Their proximity to Georgian Bay helps them considerably. We in Toronto rarely get lake effect snow from Lake Ontario because an east to west wind is extremely rare due to the Coriolis effect. It sucks I know lol. That's why we only average 110-120cm (43-47") every winter. But I'll take what we get.

12z Nam is further north. Looks like a decent hit for Iowa with widespread 4-8". A bit too far north for Milwaukee though. However, with a strong HP across Quebec, I suspect models are downplaying surface temperatures. Wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain in some areas.

Well-deserved for Toronto after experiencing 4 futility winters since 2006 lol. Temperatures were marginal even for us. It's been a weird start I agree. Quite a lot of disparity in amounts and precip types even just 20km apart. I had a hunch we'd get maybe an inch as I was looking at last night's HRRR but did not expect to see 2-4" across the GTA with the shortwave. Haha. I'm sure many people near the Lakeshore and south probably think it's another snowless start to winter. YYZ has missing snowfall data since Dec 1 so I’m not exactly sure what the YTD amount is officially but I’d suspect its between 35-40cm (14-16”). I'm at 43.4cm (17.1") on the season as of today. Just for laughs, YYZ recorded 42.8cm (16.8”) back in 2011-12.

Got a surprise 2.2" last night. Looks like a winter wonderland.

In a month you'll get over the weenieness. Trust the process.

It's similar here as well but as me and @40/70 Benchmark discussed it's very subjective. We average ~7-8" in March so going back to 96 here it is for us in terms of average for each ENSO state. I used the ONI data. ENSO 2 Strong Nino : 9.8" 2 Mod Nino: 5.2" (We got Trace in 2010 and 10.4" in 2003 so the avg of 2 is below) 5 Weak Nino including 2014-15: 5.8" 5 La Nada: 9.5" 5 Weak Nina: 4.5" 2 Mod Nina: 8.1" 4 Strong Nina: 11.5"

My point was that Nina Marches are generally colder than Nino Marches due to the background ENSO state or at least they have been of late. That's all I was trying to say from the start. Snowfall is subjective because it depends on geographic location especially by March. There are exceptions but ideally you want a colder month than a warmer month. I’m not familiar with everyone’s snowfall records/averages in March. Edit: Anyhow, didn't mean to create this allusive argument.

That whole winter was a furnace for all of us. You can say the exact same thing for last winter since the two winters had similar patterns. March 2020 was warm for all of us. You can run the exact same graph for the last 10 Nino's (2020, 2019, 2016, 2015, 2010, 2007, 2005, 2003, 1998 and 1995) and Nina's (2018, 2017, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2006, 2001, 2000, 1999) and tell me what you get.

You need some sort of ridging in the Pacific especially for you guys before Atlantic blocking. +EPO is bad for all of us. It's 43F in Winnipeg today, more than 20 degrees above average. That's the last thing any of us need for snow.

I'm not comparing the two. March 2012 was historic and remains in a league of its own. But March 2010 was warm too except for the southern states. Two different ENSO states. The only difference is once the blocking weakened in 2009-10, the Nino forcing took over the pattern leading to a warm March. The blocking in 2010-11, a strong Nina, weakened by late February too. But once the Nina took over most of us in the NE ended up cooler or near average. But I'm 100% sure anyone south of NYC would take a Nino over a Nina.