Snowstorms

We tried that last winter. Wasn't pretty.

Was a second year Nina though. I think 2007-08 seems like a better analog. It also came off a weak Nino and was the first -PDO/La Nina winter since 1999-2000. Current subsurface anomalies are quite similar to 2007 as well.

We're too far south of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay to get any lake effect snow other than occasional dustings to 2". And on-top of that, an E or SE wind off Lake Ontario is even rarer. When storms move up the Apps, unless they track just south of Lake Erie, we never cash in. These storms are usually golden for you guys in New England. Our geographic location sucks. Too far west of the Atlantic and too far north of the Gulf to get any real moisture laden storms. We were less than 100 miles away from some of those big March 2018 storms that slam dunked NNE. 95% of our snowfall every winter is synoptic.

The 1940s were kickass here in Toronto. We averaged ~55" that decade which is 10" above our seasonal average. A couple winters that really stand out; 1940-41: 64.3" 1942-43: 72.6" 1944-45: 97.6" << YYZ lowballed this winter lol 1946-47: 76.7" 1949-50: 77.3" That 1944-45 winter featured a 26" storm which is a top 5 storm. Just based on analytics, I wouldn't mind a repeat of the 1940s. Only two winters that entire decade were duds.

Latest MEI value is -1.0, which is the same as the previous bi-monthly value. Closest resemblance to this year based solely on the MEI value is 2007. The JA MEI value was already -2.4 back in 2010 as the Nina peaked in the Fall as I noted in my previous post. 1998-99 Nina isn't the greatest analog in my opinion as it came off the heels of a very strong El Nino and were much colder than 1995-96.

Subsurface anomalies are still relatively cold across much of the ENSO regions with the exception of Nino 4 as you mentioned. However, one thing to keep in mind is that 2007 had similar subsurface anomalies across far western ENSO regions to date. We should see continued trade winds blowing over the ENSO regions with another strong easterly burst coming next week. We'll see what impact that has, but regardless the SOI is now in Nina territory. The MJO is expected to remain weak/inactive as per models so this La Nina will continue to strengthen over the next few weeks. As it stands right now, I suspect this Nina will peak in the winter as did 2007.

Although 44-45 and 45-46 had exceptionally warm Marches, DJF were cold. Jan 1945 in particular. As you can see, the 1900's, 1910's, 1920's and again the 1960's, 1970's and 1980's were exceptionally cooler than any of the last three decades in all three cities you provided. Some of the warm winters we saw in these last few decades weren't just "warm" but were exceptionally above normal. Winters like 1997-98, 1998-99, 2001-02 , 2011-12 and 2015-16 were extremely warm winters nationwide. So there's been a definite warming trend in the last 100+ years.

It got down to -16F at YYZ and nearly -20F in surrounding suburbs in Toronto for one night. Believe it or not, it was the coldest low temp in Toronto since Jan 94. On a side note, Jan 94 was just ridiculous. YYZ got down to -24F and surrounding suburbs got down to -30F. Feb 2015 came close but only got down to -14F. Dec 2017 and Jan 2018 were impressive as well. Not sure how cold Detroit got during that cold snap.

To add to what you said, a severe cold outbreak or heatwave that lasts about a week shouldn't be a measure of climate change. It's more about annual trends as per your graph. If you go back to the 40's, 50's, 60's, etc. you'd note some winter's didn't have any real impressive cold outbreaks, but they were consistently cold for DJFM. What I've noticed in recent years is that we get one impressively cold month while the others are near or above average. From a temperature vantage point Detroit, Toronto, Upstate NY and parts of NNE have a similar climatology. Winters like 1940-41, 1942-43, 1944-45, 1945-46 and 1947-48 all featured consistent cold in DJF and that's just one decade. Really can't say the same for the 2000s or 2010's. Like for example: 2001-02, 03-04 (aside from Jan), 2005-06, 2006-07 (aside from Feb), 2007-08, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2019-20 were all incredibly warm winters. From a trend perspective they outweigh any warm winter in the past. So there's been a definite warming trend in winter. Snowfall is just a byproduct of temperatures in my opinion. Even if it's 33 or 34F it can still snow. Just because the snowfall trend has been going up, locally, it doesn't mean the overall trend is "good" or "cool".

Although we haven't yet reached our minimum sea ice extent/area for the year, winter has started again in northern Canada. https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html Resolute, Nunavut is losing 15 minutes of sunlight per day.

We had over 100 days of snow-cover in 2013-14. That ice storm solidified the snow base and we just kept adding onto it. Despite that mid Jan thaw we had, our snowpack still survived. I won't forget watching the 2014 winter classic on TV, in Ann Arbour if I'm not mistaken, and seeing all that heavy snow coming down for hours. We missed out on that storm unfortunately. 2010-11 was another great La Niña winter. Highly unlikely this year's La Niña will peak anywhere near that year. Our area, specifically Detroit - Toronto, can do well regardless of ENSO state. 2008-09 was just great especially coming off the heels of 07-08. I got over 30" that December alone. I was in high school during that Dec 2008 storm and I remember getting a half day because of all the snow which kick started the winter holidays haha. Jan 2009 had some impressive cold across much of the east. One of the craziest December cold snaps in recent times was in Dec 2017 around Christmas time. Although we haven't seen a wall to wall cold winter since 2014-15, we have seen some impressive cold shots as ORH noted in his previous post, i.e. Jan 2019.

Experienced a once in a lifetime ice storm in Dec 2013. Was also the coldest winter on record in more than 25 years in my neck of the woods. Apparently parts of Manitoba were colder than the surface of Mars that winter. Feb 2015 however was the coldest month ever recorded in Toronto. I wouldn't mind a repeat of 2013-14 or 2008-09. https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/toronto-ice-storm-2013-photos-from-the-gtas-winter-nightmare

This will likely continue strengthening through next week. That warm pool has an eerie resemblance to 2013-14 but at the same time it also concedes with a strengthening -PDO. Early guess would be 2013-14/2008-09 and 2017-18 blend using the most recent Nina years. La Nina's can transition into winter pretty quickly. Just ask Denver next week.

Most recent MEI value (JJ) was -1.0 which is borderline moderate La Nina. The new value for JA may come in higher as we've seen more progressive cooling across all ENSO regions through-out this month. Further cooling should continue over the next few weeks as a strong trade wind burst is expected next week esp over western ENSO regions. The new MEI v2 uses 5 variables compared to the old MEI which used 6. I prefer MEI as it takes into consideration all ENSO regions compared to ONI.

3.33" this month so far at YYZ but that number is deceiving. 3.1" of that fell in 3 days earlier this month. In reality only 4.2" has fallen since July 12th. Models are showing couple thunderstorm risks tomorrow and the chance for more steadier rain Friday night into Sat morning. Let's see if that verifies. Been dry as hell.

Nina winters with some NAO blocking are epic, i.e. 55-56, 64-65, 70-71, 95-96, 08-09 and 10-11.

They've made masks mandatory in all indoor settings including apartments and condominiums (public areas). Gyms and fitness centers finally opened up after being closed for nearly 5 months. I believe they're contemplating on keeping that US-Canada border closed until December.

Got ~25mm yesterday in my area with that storm cell. Better chance this weekend for some more widespread thunderstorms. We'll need to watch the "tropical" storm coming up the east coast and where it tracks and how it interacts with the low coming in from the Midwest. That will determine where the thunderstorms develop over the weekend.

Need some serious rain. Only 0.3" since June 10th. Spring was dry too. Grass is literally toast out here.

The ONI is more widely used to categorize ENSO events, but I prefer MEI as it takes into consideration more variables. The 2010-11 La Nina was the last strong Nina event. The coldest anomalies were centered around Region 1+2 and 3 as opposed to Region 4, atleast in the beginning. So there is a chance we could see a pretty healthy La Nina event if the upwelling continues. Haven't dug deep into this year's ENSO event but will be doing so over the next few weeks. Your posts are always informative, great work!

When I went grocery shopping last week, I saw numerous bottles of hand sanitizer. It was sold out everywhere prior to that. Limit was 2, so I grabbed 2 lol. Now we wait for Lysol and/or Clorox wipes to be restocked.

Did you see that video of him putting a mask on?

3-15K alone is devastating but 100K is just catastrophic. We've seen over 400 cases a day now for the last few days. Apparently were not testing as vigorously as other countries are so that number could be a lot higher. Correct me if I'm wrong tho. I don't know if you've heard but some family in Brampton got fined 100K for throwing a "party" despite Ford prohibiting gatherings of more than 5 people. My WFH got extended till May 1 now and I suspect it may get extended again as we approach the end of the month. April will be a rough month but if these social distancing measures are increasingly forced, then May can end up a lot better.

Ohh, makes sense! Thanks for that. Do you think Ford needs to issue a mandatory stay at home order?

A friend of mine used to work at an Asian grocery store about a decade ago. He used to tell me how much they all smoked. I think it was a pack a day or something close to that.