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andyhb

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Everything posted by andyhb

  1. andyhb
    00z Euro is kind of a clusterf*ck since none of the waves really interact with each other. Instead it's basically a patchwork of flow on Tuesday despite a fairly large area of instability. Lower end run.
  2. andyhb
    Tuesday (2/27) could become interesting depending on how that lead wave interacts with the northern stream as it ejects. 12z Euro would probably be a notable severe weather event for Illinois. IMO Wednesday will struggle with a lack of instability, but there are large D6/D7 15% risks out from the SPC.
  3. andyhb
    A lot of uncertainty right now as to how this trough evolves given that there's three pieces involved. The northern stream trough, the southern stream closed low off the SW coast, and a lead wave that looks to eject towards the Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday looks to have poor instability for the most part. IMO the greatest threat is in the Midwest on Tuesday, especially if the former and the latter features work together in a way that resembles the 12z Euro.
  4. andyhb
    *sigh* why does this nonsense keep happening with almost every tornado event...
  5. andyhb
    ...or not
  6. andyhb
    Evansville WI tornado rated prelim EF3 per Damage Assessment Toolkit. 1/7/2008 vibes.
  7. andyhb
    My bad, Thursday.
  8. andyhb
    Lol the RRFS is doing some... things in E IA/W IL tomorrow.
  9. andyhb
    Flying into DCA tonight and… well…
  10. andyhb
    Returns blossoming on KDVN again as the deformation zone starts to crank. They might pull off some huge totals.
  11. andyhb
    Welcome to a strong Nino winter in a warming climate.
  12. andyhb
    Don’t want that shift to continue if you’re in N IL or you risk mixing and the dryslot.
  13. andyhb
    Ope I see that title change.
  14. andyhb
    Reminds me quite a bit of a snow footprint with the GHD II storm in 2015.
  15. andyhb
    Again, this increase across the board is nearly entirely related to the cold sector precip getting more robust.
  16. andyhb
    Seems to me that some of this recent uptick in snowfall totals for those within the cold conveyor belt is an increase in coverage of the backside/deformation precipitation. One has to wonder if the general lack of convection further south may play a role in this. Ratios will no doubt be higher in this zone as temps crash behind the low.
  17. andyhb
    fatality
  18. andyhb
    18z NAM is a titanic bust for many lol. Have to think that the super warm December up north/lack of snow cover is contributing to all of these marginal temperature events. Basically a hangover from that. You essentially need a lobe of the PV to come down and bring the real cold like after this storm, but because the PV lobe is lagging behind this system, it doesn't contribute.
  19. andyhb
    Eh, historic would mean 18"+. The marginal temperatures are really putting a damper on what could be a top 5 storm.
  20. andyhb
    No other model has it that far north/pronounced despite many with similar SLP tracks. I have my doubts.
  21. andyhb
    NAM has this huge slug of warm air aloft at 850 mb + the surface temps are marginal. Cuts into snow totals significantly across the board.
  22. andyhb
    Eh? The Euro/EPS is stronger because the primary shortwave is deeper and more organized than on the GFS, not really due to phasing.
  23. andyhb
    Decided weaker/east shift on the GEFS. Historic storm off the table there.
  24. andyhb
  25. andyhb
    Lol main shortwave is too flat on the 12z GFS again.
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