Radtechwxman

Couldn't have said it better myself. Definitely was modeled terribly. Our local met posted this

Rain snow line was more north than I anticipated. Good ol' 33-34 cold rain here with some sleet mixed in. Hoping I fair better with the main event. I'm honestly surprised temps didnt drop quicker with dews in upper 20s. Thought evaporative cooling would do the trick but I was wrong

Yea I had a rotating wall cloud in Dunlap. Just couldn't tighten enough to produce. If winds were backed or even southerly today would have been much different in IL

Warm front surged too fast across IL prior to storm initiation. Surface winds veered terribly and killed low level shear. Storm mode was great further south but just couldn't tighten up with lack of low level shear. Needed that warm front. Had a nice LP supercell in Peoria county with rotating wall cloud. Came close to producing

They have the same probs. 95 is the highest it goes. But comparing to 4-27-11 is not wise. That's a rare kind of outbreak

Yea this definitely has setup much further west. I think capping and lack of forcing mechanism in OK has held things back thus far

Also wondering if the cloud debris from TX storms is somewhat inhibiting the storms in SW Oklahoma. Seen that happen before

I noticed that. Maybe residual capping?

18z OUN sounding is just wow..the hodograph looks like the STL arch

It's legit. Saw someone share a screenshot from nws chat confirming high risk upgrade at 06z outlook. But can't share the image

Had a CC drop for sure

GFS is pretty much the only model showing this. NAM and Euro both push the front very south which makes sense given the seasonally cold air mass in the Plains with that high pressure. GFS tends to underestimate cold frontal surges. But SPC must be giving some credence to it because if they were following anything close to the other models, OK would pretty much be out of this

Unbelievable. Seems like every yr it is getting later and later to see any decent Plains setups. Anymore outbreaks are happening in less favorable chase terrain. Just would be nice to have a normal tornado season in classic Tornado Alley. The last several years have been plagued with poorly timed waves or just garbage wind profiles plagued with weaknesses and VBV. Miss those days of bowling balls slamming into a warm sector. To be dealing with crashing cold fronts in late April is ridiculous. Hoping this yr will pull a 2013 and turn around real quick by mid to late May

Thanks for the summary. Appreciate it. Haven't had much time to dig I to things besides briefly looking at GFS. Nice to see the pattern turning around. Hopefully this continues into May

I haven't seen Euro but GFS left me pretty unimpressed. Curious what SPC is looking at because their discussion was pretty robust

Dates on this aren't correct

Eh it's NAM and it is in it's long range. I would put more trust in GFS or Euro at this point. 12z GFS still looked pretty good. I don't have access to Euro anymore

I think that radar site near Columbus may have been damaged. It hasn't updated in over 40min

It's in a terrible radar hole but it certainly looks potent aloft on BMX radar

Definitely looks like a weakness in that hodo. Vbv issues maybe? I think lack of stronger capping really hurt today. Morning convection festered into the afternoon. Just goes to show you how sensitive severe wx setups are despite great parameters in place

Just goes to show you even with extreme parameters in place, storm mode is crucial. Sfc low definitely ended up further south than models had. Persistent morning convection really held up wf. Minimal capping allowed storms to keep ongoing all day. Really needed a stronger EML to build in ahead of main wave. This was my biggest fear with this setup. Too many storms

Yea I'm thinking this may set up more east than originally thought due to training crapvection further west

Unsure how today is going to pan out further east. As I feared, lack of strong capping has lead to persistent storms all day and has held the warm front further south. Very unstable south of there. Not sure we're going to see the prime overlap of the highest instability and best shear. Hrrr still wanting to ramp things up later in northeast LA and western MS. Just everything is very disorganized now. Texas has been the hot spot so far today

Yea I'm getting flashbacks of 4-2-17 with this. Very impressive parameters but not enough cap to prevent widespread storms from going up. Imo this looks to be very messy and in terrible terrain. I do think there could still be significant tornadoes but they're going to be tough to see

Oops you're right. I was talking about the Thurs system. Yea weekend storm definitely looks like a rainer. Possible thunderstorms to