Radtechwxman

I have a degree in meteorology. I understand man. I'm talking about it getting stronger the next day or so in the more favorable conditions. If you end up with a stronger storm in the short term, you will likely have it landfall stronger. Yes it has plenty working against it as it nears landfall but a well formed core of a strong hurricane just won't instantly degrade. Yes there will be weakening but with a larger circulation developing as were already seeing. That won't break down as fast as Delta did prior to landfall in Yucatan when the circulation was much smaller. It all depends on what happens while the environment is ripe for intensification

NHC hitting the weakening pretty hard prior to landfall. Based on it's organization tonight, I think it could overachieve current intensity forecasts

Oof. New advisory has Delta down to 85mph. Man model guidance has been all over for this. NHC forecasting a high end cat 2 to low end cat 3 landfall now

Seems like when shear is forecasted it doesn't pan out and when it isn't forecasted it appears. Delta looks very rough now. Cloud tops have remained very cold but inner core is just so sloppy. Can't recall a high end cat 4 ever with no eye visible

This is the ugliest 145mph hurricane I ever laid my eyes on via satellite. Lol. I'm shocked the winds went up. Only in 2020. Despite it being disorganized in the inner core, it still has took advantage of the great environment conditions.

Yea if someone showed me the current IR satellite loop and ask me to guess intensity I definitely wouldn't be saying cat 4. Curious if the pressure has come up more and if the winds are lower. Cloud tops still very cold but organization is poor.

That's a valid point. Not often you see a pressure rise correspond with a decent uptick in winds

140mph now. So obviously still undergoing rapid intensification. Pressure actually came up though which is odd

I'm shocked Jim said that. Pretty ballsy. Time and organization are working against something that low. Shocked how strong it is given overall satellite presentation. The CDO is impressive though. Getting more symmetrical and wrapping and VERY cold cloud tops

My exact thought. I think 140 is too low given current trends

Jesus. This is the craziest RI I seen since Wilma in the Atlantic

THE EYE

Beta looks like a pile of crap on satellite. Shear and dry air are taking its toll. Wonder if Beta can pull a 2020 and shock us all. My bets are no on this one

Marco looks abysmal on satellite right now. I think dry air is taking it's toll. Could also be getting back into stronger shear. I did notice though that models are almost stalling Marco near the LA coast and then slowing drift it west or possibly wsw. This could be due to a weaker storm not tapping into steering currents higher up. Almost gets stuck between the two ridges. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Marco isn't a hurricane anymore

You can tell that shear must have temporarily backed off because the CDO just exploded to the west

Couldn't have said it better myself. Excellent analysis

Marco is definitely going to struggle. Good slab of dry air to it's nw and the shear which is backing off a bit however will ramp up again as it approaches shore. These small tropical systems are so temperamental. They can easily rapidly intensify but also equally rapidly weaken. I think we may see it hit minimal hurricane status like NHC is forecasting. Some hot towers attempting but nothing has been sustained too long.

Looks like today found the one of the failure modes. Lol. Seemed like initial storms were too close to the front. Storm motions were kind of nw which took them across frontal zone. Seemed like storms struggled to acquire tight rotation today. Saw plenty of broad rotations on radar

Won't storms be low topped though? Upper levels really won't even get tapped into much

Wind fields impressive with this. Curious how much phasing we will get between the remnants and incoming trough. Seems the trend has been for less phasing. Regardless still looks like solid wind advisory to possibly high wind warning criteria. Won't take much instability at all for a robust tornado threat with low topped supercells. Hope this times during peak heating Tues to maximize severe potential

Definitely one of those high bust potential but high reward setups. I think there will be dryline supercells but how tornadic I'm not sure. I'm not a fan of the relatively small hodograph size albeit nice curvature. Definitely concerned storms won't be vented enough aloft and that low level shear, speed wise, may not be enough for a robust tornado threat. Obviously if I lived closer I would chase any of these days this week but the target being 8-10+ hrs away I'm not sure it will be worth it for me. May hold off for better setups, hopefully, in the next few weeks. I have a break from classes from the 19th-31st so hope I can chase something meaningful

Definitely far from a perfect setup but multiple chase days in classic tornado alley should have everyone excited! I have my eye on Wed for sure!

This thread sure is dead. Lol. I do like the upcoming potential this week. Good moisture and instability though nam is keeping it more into OK and less into KS. A lot of this week, minus a shortwave on Wed, will be mostly mesoscale related details. I'm not a fan of the overall weak wind fields but the chance of discrete development on a sharp dryline is pretty good esp on Wed with a better defined wave

Any final report on Soso/Bassfield tornado yet?

Seems like after the middle of next week most models push the ridge to the Midwest and it is still pretty stout. I do like the big trough digging into the west and the ridge to the east causes very slow movement of that trough and likely multiple days of severe potential. What I don't like and something that could change is how the upper level winds really back as they get squashed against the ridge. Would prefer to see the ridge a little more east and a bit less amplified