Radtechwxman

This thread sure is dead. Lol. I do like the upcoming potential this week. Good moisture and instability though nam is keeping it more into OK and less into KS. A lot of this week, minus a shortwave on Wed, will be mostly mesoscale related details. I'm not a fan of the overall weak wind fields but the chance of discrete development on a sharp dryline is pretty good esp on Wed with a better defined wave

Any final report on Soso/Bassfield tornado yet?

Seems like after the middle of next week most models push the ridge to the Midwest and it is still pretty stout. I do like the big trough digging into the west and the ridge to the east causes very slow movement of that trough and likely multiple days of severe potential. What I don't like and something that could change is how the upper level winds really back as they get squashed against the ridge. Would prefer to see the ridge a little more east and a bit less amplified

Issue is all these storms lighting up now are all right on the front. If you want tornadoes today they need to form further from the front or they will be undercut

Storms already warned. Impressive. Odd because I'm seeing no lightning show on radarscope for those storms

I definitely agree with Quincy. Low level lapse rates are pretty bad and clouds still lingering over a good portion of the highest risk area. Storms attempting to go up by Bartlesville but they are right on the front. Need some to form ahead of it and interact with an ofb.

Is that the CF surging south in KS or an OFB? It is past Wichita now nearing OK border

Couldn't agree more. Good for their sake. But wind profiles are awful. So much veering at sfc. Bad weakness aloft. Storm mode absolute slop fest and definitely outflow dominant

Southern MS

Man these VWP's I'm seeing are ugly and not in good way for tornadoes. Very unidirectional. Horribly veered sfc flow

Weird how strong the TDS looks given the weak couplet present

TDS now on that cell now in central LA

Twitter is entertaining tonight. Apparently BMX talked SPC out of issuing the high risk. Can't confirm anything. Rumor mill a spinning hard tonight. Lol

Not discounting significant tornado potential tomorrow but I'm unsure if high risk probs will verify. Just shocked they're doing it at all esp tonight when we need to see how morning convection evolves. I think a lot of this is because of similar areas impacted. SPC outlooks do have a political aspect to them

I see that. Apparently several people have inside info. Lol. Heard Broyles is doing outlook

Rain snow line absolutely flying north on CC. It was suppose to stay south of I74 and it has already passed it and still moving north. Looks like NAM may have been right for once. Definitely not what I was expecting. All rain here now

I know I'm no survey expert but I really was thinking at least 180-190mph range for this tornado based on radar data and damage

Wonder what's taking so long to get final survey on Bassfield EF4. Curious if final width will be greater than 2mi and if they bumped wind speeds up

Riding the cutoff in Peoria like all winter. Lol. A nudge south I will be in rip city. A nudge north cold rain. Wouldn't expect it any other way

Surprised those storms aren't taking off in southern MS. Wondering if the jet/main energy is lagging behind further west

Definitely a noticeable downward trend in tornado activity now. I think those two supercells went gangbusters from an hr or two because they were moving more east than north initially in a very favorable thermodynamic environment. As they got east they started moving more north into a less potent environment. Seems like things have got messy again. Best chance for more significant tornadoes would be for anything down south to deviate more east. That was a short duration albeit very violent few hours of tornado madness. Might see a major qlcs get going later

Was just about to post this. Very interesting. Wonder if that lead wave left some subsidence behind it

Couldn't agree more. Seems like better low level instability isn't lining up well with best shear. Then the storm mode is very messy, esp near the warm front

My exact thoughts and was my fear with this setup. Models never showed good low level lapse rates or 0-3km cape. Low level instability is crucial in tornadogenesis. I do think there will be plenty of qlcs tornadoes but discrete supercells with long track tornadoes is looking less and less likely each hour. However, qlcs tornadoes are still nothing to ignore and can be strong

Storms struggling as they get north. That storm that originated by Jackson has fallen apart. Likely due to poor low level lapse rates and poor 0-3km cape up north