Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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GFS snow totals I think are way underdone in northern IL. I think it is having convective feedback or something. It is so splotchy with totals
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Sadly I think you're right. Pretty close to throwing in the towel on this one coming together but going to hold off to see if sampling will change model output or not. Would like to see support from the globals in favor of the hi-res
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So all in all 0z summary is we still have no clue. Lol
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I honestly don't know what to expect at this point. Nam last time sniffed out the higher totals esp to the north. Doesn't mean it is right everytime but something to watch
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The thing is the globals seem to be drastically different with erratic changes so not sure. Sampling can't come soon enough. Lol
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Yea kind of left puzzled. But not surprising because we still haven't had a sample yet. Hopefully that will help hone in models tomorrow. We're getting closer to NAM's good range. Am curious to see if Euro budges
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Looking at the trough at 500mb being more neutral I was thinking this run was going to turn out better. Possibly earlier phasing
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GFS can be quite stubborn. With the last storm it was way underplaying amounts up till the day of
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Yep it is pretty amped with the surface low
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Totally agree. You may have a shot being further east but I may be too west to benefit from it. Depends on if and when that even occurs. 18z runs were certainly more encouraging
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Great points Stebo! Was thinking the same thing. A more NE movement would help though with keeping the deformation band around longer. Has anyone noticed how much models are underestimating the current snowpack we have to?
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That was certainly a nice step to a more robust system. Curious to see if 0z continues it. Should have a partial sampling at least by 0z runs tomorrow night. Hopefully full sample by 12z Fri
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Models can barely handle this storm that's a few days away so I wouldn't get excited about anything next week yet. Lol. It will be an active pattern but how significant remains to be seen
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Took the words right out of my mouth. Ha. Well let's see if 12z continues the chaos or if we start trending better again
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Never said I was "swinging" but you can tell the overall mood and lack of posts reflects disappointment. I mean yea it is days away and anything is still on the table. I am curious to see how euro looks tonight
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Man we went from being ecstatic last night to heartbroken tonight. Surely hope this trends even slightly better tomorrow. Worse set of runs so far
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Well about the only thing consistent on models is that further east will cash in big time. Out west is a crapshoot on earlier phasing
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Couldn't agree more. I'm not as hopeful as I once was for this. Has high end potential but seems to be a lot of misses on models. At least there looks to be a cold, active pattern ahead
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It all comes down to a phase. Trended away from that today. If these trends continue tomorrow then I may believe them more. Anyone think euro will hold strong?
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I'm not buying anything till sampling occurs. Am curious though to see if Euro holds or sways like the rest
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So basically it may snow anywhere from Chicago to Mexico with totals ranging from 0-100in. Ok got it
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Models just seem absolutely lost tonight
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12z runs were the south shifts and now 0z runs are the crazies? Lol
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That seems way too warm at the low levels. Esp that north into IL
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If nam is right, then I will go streaking out in my current snowpack and make a snow angel. That's how confident I am that it is wrong. Lol
