Radtechwxman

18z HRRR continues a very messy evolution of tomorrow. Multiple waves of storms. Still could see significant severe esp with anything interacting with the warm front

I totally agree with this. I think there's going to be a lot of morning convection like the Yazoo City day. I think we will see somewhat of a lull by early afternoon with some destabilization occurring from increasing waa south of wf and maybe some peaks of sun. I think the main event will be a mixed mode of supercells and lines of storms. The wind shear should allow a storm or two to advantage of this environment with a few significant tornadoes. I'm honestly more worried about AL for an overnight threat. Overall for now I'm not seeing a major tornado outbreak happening but it is also not out of the cards. This will come down to fine mesoscale details in the morning. However, it only takes one significant tornado hitting a community to make for a bad day

Yea 3km nam goes to show you a possible scenario if the warm sector doesn't clear quickly. A messy storm mode and not as high end threat. 12km nam on the other hand really lifts morning convection quickly north and has confluent bands of supercells. I think that was similar to the euro evolution. Really this comes down to morning convection and warm sector quality. Even if the lower end solutions pan out, the threat for significant tornadoes is still there given the wind fields. That Baron 3k run would be a worse case scenario for the South. If I were SPC I would hold off on high risk till day of to see how morning storms evolve.

If any day was ever worthy of it, it was 4-27-11. Such a high concentration of strong to violent tornadoes

I mean the fact these "supercells" in a 15 hatched barely have rotation and no lightning speaks for itself. So much shear, so little cape. It's just pushing over the updrafts. I saw Iowa managed to squeeze out a brief tube

Thermos and lapse rates definitely killed our threat here. That morning wave was the nail in the coffin

I think our fate was sealed after that late wave of morning to afternoon storms. Then that feed of showers and clouds continued all day, at least in IL. Moisture quality seemed to be less than what was forecasted. Just goes to show you how a few variables being off can totally change an otherwise potent tornado setup. That's Jonesboro storm was insane. That tornado looked just like Tuscaloosa. Curious to see what the environment was near that storm

I'm definitely getting the bust vibe from this from a tornado outbreak standpoint. Too much shear and not enough cape. I think IL could see some severe storms later but how significant I'm unsure

Yea these dew points are drastically lower than models depicted. I'm surprised. There was a good reservoir of mid to upper 60 dews in the lower mid Mississippi Valley last night. Really thought those would advect north quickly. I think the EML ended up being less robust and maybe some mixing near dry slot. IL has been in training showers and clouds all day. Dry slot is finally progressing east but not sure we will have enough time to recover much. Definitely wasn't expecting all this crapvection to persist so long

I think hrrr may be overconvecting imo. It was way off on extent of elevated storms last night. This complex is MO is definitely the fly in the ointment. If more storms don't blow up besides that, I think this could still be a big day. That remains to be seen

A prefrontal trough would certainly increase the tornado potential for this. Prevent a more linear storm mode near pacific front

Don't think there will be any issue seeing mid to upper 60 dews in moderate risk area. 3km nam definitely highlights a potential fly in the ointment with convection persisting into the afternoon instead of clearing mid to late morning like HRRR

Current dew points

3km nam at other end of spectrum of hrrr. Multiple rounds of convection lasting into the afternoon. Would definitely temper the threat and likely shift it west and south

0z hrrr is verbatim high risk worthy. Those helicity tracks are mind boggling. I think cape/dews may be overdone a bit but regardless still looks to be a big day

Yea that was my concern. Directional shear not as good west so storms could struggle till they got more east but would they get too messy before getting to the better environment? Plus MO is just not chasing friendly so definitely prefer the threat further east. I do agree HRRR is probably too fast but NAM seems too slow. 0z HRRR running now. Let the fun begin

Definitely noticing that on the nams. My question is if that was right, would they start producing right away or further east? Winds are more backed east. Curious to see if hrrr caves towards that or holds firm

No need for your sarcasm. Just saying given the parameters I am seeing and the potential I don't think they're hitting the tornado potential as hard as they should. Yes there is bust potential as with any setup but I can name more positive than negative aspects with this. These storms will be in some populated areas, more so than any setup so far this year and I just hope people understand the potential of this to produce strong to potentially violent tornadoes. I'm not saying I'm better than any NWS forecaster but I do think they been quite conservative and that concerns me.

It's seriously embarrassing what ILX does. They always refer to SPC discussion. Like do your own analysis. DVN was uncharacteristically conservative. LOT great as always. Not sure what the other offices aren't seeing

Yea not sure I buy this thing slowly that much with initiation that west. Pretty drastic shift. Hrrr makes more sense with timing. I could see a somewhat slower trend and possibly more west of hrrr but nothing like the nam's

Lol. Built the hype. Now time for it to get crushed. Yea 12z euro definitely was weaker esp with sfc wind speeds. Killed the hodo in the low levels. But since that isn't a high resolution model probably would put more faith in shorter term hi res models

DVN is being majorly conservative: THE LIKELY SPEED OF THE LINE (POTENTIALLY 45-50 MPH) MEANS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. IF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BECOME FAVORABLE THEN ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

Well I referenced it was it that sweet spot to se of sfc low so kind of inferring that. Lol. But pretty sure I read somewhere it interacted with an ofb as well

I was thinking that to. That day overall had veered sfc flow. I think that storm was a mesoscale accident. Hit an ofb from previous storms. Wf was well north of it. It was also in that sweet spot just se of a rapidly deepening sfc low

I don't blame Thompson. That was a terrible outlook by Broyles. This is how it should have looked last night. Mentioned potential upgrade to in further outlooks