Radtechwxman

Couldn't have said it better myself. Excellent analysis

Marco is definitely going to struggle. Good slab of dry air to it's nw and the shear which is backing off a bit however will ramp up again as it approaches shore. These small tropical systems are so temperamental. They can easily rapidly intensify but also equally rapidly weaken. I think we may see it hit minimal hurricane status like NHC is forecasting. Some hot towers attempting but nothing has been sustained too long.

Looks like today found the one of the failure modes. Lol. Seemed like initial storms were too close to the front. Storm motions were kind of nw which took them across frontal zone. Seemed like storms struggled to acquire tight rotation today. Saw plenty of broad rotations on radar

Won't storms be low topped though? Upper levels really won't even get tapped into much

Wind fields impressive with this. Curious how much phasing we will get between the remnants and incoming trough. Seems the trend has been for less phasing. Regardless still looks like solid wind advisory to possibly high wind warning criteria. Won't take much instability at all for a robust tornado threat with low topped supercells. Hope this times during peak heating Tues to maximize severe potential

Definitely one of those high bust potential but high reward setups. I think there will be dryline supercells but how tornadic I'm not sure. I'm not a fan of the relatively small hodograph size albeit nice curvature. Definitely concerned storms won't be vented enough aloft and that low level shear, speed wise, may not be enough for a robust tornado threat. Obviously if I lived closer I would chase any of these days this week but the target being 8-10+ hrs away I'm not sure it will be worth it for me. May hold off for better setups, hopefully, in the next few weeks. I have a break from classes from the 19th-31st so hope I can chase something meaningful

Definitely far from a perfect setup but multiple chase days in classic tornado alley should have everyone excited! I have my eye on Wed for sure!

This thread sure is dead. Lol. I do like the upcoming potential this week. Good moisture and instability though nam is keeping it more into OK and less into KS. A lot of this week, minus a shortwave on Wed, will be mostly mesoscale related details. I'm not a fan of the overall weak wind fields but the chance of discrete development on a sharp dryline is pretty good esp on Wed with a better defined wave

Any final report on Soso/Bassfield tornado yet?

Seems like after the middle of next week most models push the ridge to the Midwest and it is still pretty stout. I do like the big trough digging into the west and the ridge to the east causes very slow movement of that trough and likely multiple days of severe potential. What I don't like and something that could change is how the upper level winds really back as they get squashed against the ridge. Would prefer to see the ridge a little more east and a bit less amplified

Issue is all these storms lighting up now are all right on the front. If you want tornadoes today they need to form further from the front or they will be undercut

Storms already warned. Impressive. Odd because I'm seeing no lightning show on radarscope for those storms

I definitely agree with Quincy. Low level lapse rates are pretty bad and clouds still lingering over a good portion of the highest risk area. Storms attempting to go up by Bartlesville but they are right on the front. Need some to form ahead of it and interact with an ofb.

Is that the CF surging south in KS or an OFB? It is past Wichita now nearing OK border

I know I'm no survey expert but I really was thinking at least 180-190mph range for this tornado based on radar data and damage

Wonder what's taking so long to get final survey on Bassfield EF4. Curious if final width will be greater than 2mi and if they bumped wind speeds up

Surprised those storms aren't taking off in southern MS. Wondering if the jet/main energy is lagging behind further west

Definitely a noticeable downward trend in tornado activity now. I think those two supercells went gangbusters from an hr or two because they were moving more east than north initially in a very favorable thermodynamic environment. As they got east they started moving more north into a less potent environment. Seems like things have got messy again. Best chance for more significant tornadoes would be for anything down south to deviate more east. That was a short duration albeit very violent few hours of tornado madness. Might see a major qlcs get going later

Was just about to post this. Very interesting. Wonder if that lead wave left some subsidence behind it

Couldn't agree more. Seems like better low level instability isn't lining up well with best shear. Then the storm mode is very messy, esp near the warm front

My exact thoughts and was my fear with this setup. Models never showed good low level lapse rates or 0-3km cape. Low level instability is crucial in tornadogenesis. I do think there will be plenty of qlcs tornadoes but discrete supercells with long track tornadoes is looking less and less likely each hour. However, qlcs tornadoes are still nothing to ignore and can be strong

Storms struggling as they get north. That storm that originated by Jackson has fallen apart. Likely due to poor low level lapse rates and poor 0-3km cape up north

18z HRRR continues a very messy evolution of tomorrow. Multiple waves of storms. Still could see significant severe esp with anything interacting with the warm front

I totally agree with this. I think there's going to be a lot of morning convection like the Yazoo City day. I think we will see somewhat of a lull by early afternoon with some destabilization occurring from increasing waa south of wf and maybe some peaks of sun. I think the main event will be a mixed mode of supercells and lines of storms. The wind shear should allow a storm or two to advantage of this environment with a few significant tornadoes. I'm honestly more worried about AL for an overnight threat. Overall for now I'm not seeing a major tornado outbreak happening but it is also not out of the cards. This will come down to fine mesoscale details in the morning. However, it only takes one significant tornado hitting a community to make for a bad day

Yea 3km nam goes to show you a possible scenario if the warm sector doesn't clear quickly. A messy storm mode and not as high end threat. 12km nam on the other hand really lifts morning convection quickly north and has confluent bands of supercells. I think that was similar to the euro evolution. Really this comes down to morning convection and warm sector quality. Even if the lower end solutions pan out, the threat for significant tornadoes is still there given the wind fields. That Baron 3k run would be a worse case scenario for the South. If I were SPC I would hold off on high risk till day of to see how morning storms evolve.