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Radtechwxman

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Everything posted by Radtechwxman

  1. Radtechwxman
    Oof. New advisory has Delta down to 85mph. Man model guidance has been all over for this. NHC forecasting a high end cat 2 to low end cat 3 landfall now
  2. Radtechwxman
    Seems like when shear is forecasted it doesn't pan out and when it isn't forecasted it appears. Delta looks very rough now. Cloud tops have remained very cold but inner core is just so sloppy. Can't recall a high end cat 4 ever with no eye visible
  3. Radtechwxman
    This is the ugliest 145mph hurricane I ever laid my eyes on via satellite. Lol. I'm shocked the winds went up. Only in 2020. Despite it being disorganized in the inner core, it still has took advantage of the great environment conditions.
  4. Radtechwxman
    Yea if someone showed me the current IR satellite loop and ask me to guess intensity I definitely wouldn't be saying cat 4. Curious if the pressure has come up more and if the winds are lower. Cloud tops still very cold but organization is poor.
  5. Radtechwxman
    That's a valid point. Not often you see a pressure rise correspond with a decent uptick in winds
  6. Radtechwxman
    140mph now. So obviously still undergoing rapid intensification. Pressure actually came up though which is odd
  7. Radtechwxman
    I'm shocked Jim said that. Pretty ballsy. Time and organization are working against something that low. Shocked how strong it is given overall satellite presentation. The CDO is impressive though. Getting more symmetrical and wrapping and VERY cold cloud tops
  8. Radtechwxman
    My exact thought. I think 140 is too low given current trends
  9. Radtechwxman
    Jesus. This is the craziest RI I seen since Wilma in the Atlantic
  10. Radtechwxman
    THE EYE
  11. Radtechwxman
    Beta looks like a pile of crap on satellite. Shear and dry air are taking its toll. Wonder if Beta can pull a 2020 and shock us all. My bets are no on this one
  12. Radtechwxman
    Marco looks abysmal on satellite right now. I think dry air is taking it's toll. Could also be getting back into stronger shear. I did notice though that models are almost stalling Marco near the LA coast and then slowing drift it west or possibly wsw. This could be due to a weaker storm not tapping into steering currents higher up. Almost gets stuck between the two ridges. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Marco isn't a hurricane anymore
  13. Radtechwxman
    You can tell that shear must have temporarily backed off because the CDO just exploded to the west
  14. Radtechwxman
    Couldn't have said it better myself. Excellent analysis
  15. Radtechwxman
    Marco is definitely going to struggle. Good slab of dry air to it's nw and the shear which is backing off a bit however will ramp up again as it approaches shore. These small tropical systems are so temperamental. They can easily rapidly intensify but also equally rapidly weaken. I think we may see it hit minimal hurricane status like NHC is forecasting. Some hot towers attempting but nothing has been sustained too long.
  16. Radtechwxman
    Seems like after the middle of next week most models push the ridge to the Midwest and it is still pretty stout. I do like the big trough digging into the west and the ridge to the east causes very slow movement of that trough and likely multiple days of severe potential. What I don't like and something that could change is how the upper level winds really back as they get squashed against the ridge. Would prefer to see the ridge a little more east and a bit less amplified
  17. Radtechwxman
    I don't blame Thompson. That was a terrible outlook by Broyles. This is how it should have looked last night. Mentioned potential upgrade to in further outlooks
  18. Radtechwxman
    Yea he is being very conservative which is unlike him. Tornadoes were definitely worth mentioning. Slight risk areas should be bigger to especially up north
  19. Radtechwxman
    Storm mode is my main concern. Looks like things could grow upscale fast with strong forcing and high instability. I haven't looked to see how strong the capping is
  20. Radtechwxman
    Very well said. Pretty abnormal to see upper levels winds like that this south in late June. The instability/shear combo is impressive esp in southern KS on Sun. But the strong forcing makes me think you could see a lot of storms fire and get messy quick. But man if anything can stay discrete it will be tornadofest. OFB Sat in OK could get interesting
  21. Radtechwxman
    Right. I'm shocked. I can't chase but still like discussing the threat
  22. Radtechwxman
    This thread is anomalously quiet for the weekend severe potential
  23. Radtechwxman
    I just figured it out. My apologies. Was kinda confusing at first. I'm new to the site. But it has a bar up top showing the progress and shows the run at the bottom. I swear I'm not an idiot. Just had a blonde moment. Lol
  24. Radtechwxman
    Then why in the corner does it say 12z Thurs current run?? Where it says valid 0z Thurs is actually the time frame I'm looking at. Wed night
  25. Radtechwxman
    Hopefully won't get in trouble for posting this. Winds aloft not looking as westerly as before. Jet has more amplitude this time around and not as flat
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