Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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February 14th-16th Winter Storm Threat
Radtechwxman replied to Thundersnow12's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Well GFS has practically lost the storm. Euro still has it but weaker. GEM still pretty amped -
February 14th-16th Winter Storm Threat
Radtechwxman replied to Thundersnow12's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
The CMC bottoms out the low at 981mb. The 12z run that is. It's track is a little north of Euro. This system has been looking like a powerhouse -
Cold rain for me. So excited
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Izzi from LOT says Euro ensembles aren't as south as operational so not sure if the southward trend is believable
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0z euro took a big step south. Tracks the low near the I70 corridor
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Yea it was wagons nw. Lol. Funny because 12z run was weak and south. Far from knowing what this will do. I'm leaning towards north and strong
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Late January-Early February Clipper Train
Radtechwxman replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Yea that frontogenic band has setup pretty north. Parked over DVN. Cyclone going to cash in again?! -
Managed to hit -22 Wed morning and -21 this morning. Was kind of shocked we didn't get lower. Dead calm winds and clear skies. I think urban heat island mitigates it somewhat and also I'm just above the Illinois River Valley so not in a favorable cold drainage area
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The speed of this system was definitely underestimated on models. Then the smaller flake size likely due to strong winds shredding the flakes didn't allow for rapid accumulation. Happy I got snow though! Arctic front on my doorstep
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Yea these winds are destroying flakes. Already reports of freezing rain just to my west/southwest. This system moved way quicker than expected
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Is it just me or does this appear to be moving a lot faster than anticipated?
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Yea Euro sometimes can really be out on it's own and nail it and other times it is out to lunch. I feel this will track near IL-WI border like most models have it. Maybe close to I88. Just hoping I can avoid getting too much rain here
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Kind of funny that Euro nudged north when it has been one of the most south models meanwhile other models bumped south
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I'm not? Hrrr was running hot last time. Ended up hitting like 35 max but overall was around 33-34 all day. WAA with that last system was deep. Doesn't seem as deep with this system imo and doesn't get as north
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0z hrrr seems pretty warm compared to most guidance which is around 33-34. That has temps nearing 40 which I think is unlikely this north
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Here's temperatures at same time frame
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Yea the feature I'm looking at is definitely on the cf. It has a massive temp crash behind it
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Yea the lower res models aren't showing it well but it looks potent on 3km nam. Very sharp intense line. Probably could produce brief blizzard conditions. That would be a nice consolation prize for us further south who largely miss out
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I noticed 3km nam is showing something similar to this. Strong band of snow with the cf. Could be intense with strong winds
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I agree completely. It only came south that one run. Not sure if we will see any south shifts. If any I think they will be slight at this point. 0z runs tonight should have a full sampling
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Did GFS actually get one right for once? I'm shocked. Rare it beats Euro
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The precip band though on 12z nam arcs more se it seems. Seems to keep the rain at bay to. Mixed precip to snow on the cf here
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Don't get my hopes up lol. If this was pure clipper system I would be confident on a south shift as we approached because that's common with clippers but due to this being more of a hybrid not so sure that will be the case
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Very small glimmer of hope. Lol. I'm just trying to avoid plain rain. Like cyclone I want to be as primed as possible for this arctic intrusion. Picked up 2.5in of fluff today. Don't want it to wash away
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Yea euro didn't jump as north as I expected. Well curious to see what models do tomorrow. Hopefully more sampling will sort this all out
