Radtechwxman

0z hrrr torchy like gfs. Has rain wrapping around low all night Fri. I just don't buy that. There should be some CAA wrapping on backside of low. This first wave is definitely looking pretty paltry on radar. Wondering if precip by Gulf is disrupting moisture feed. Also looked like that first disturbance lifted more west than anticipated

Totally agree with this. With an already high water content snow with low ratios marginal daytime temps will definitely favor more slush over accumulations and white rain like you said. I think best shot here will be overnight Thurs into Fri when wind direction shifts more northerly as upper low pulls east

GFS continues to be a torch with most snow confined to Great Lakes. Either it's going to hit a home run being the only model sniffing out warmer temps or going to look really stupid next to the rest of guidance. I do believe there will be transitions between rain and snow especially preceding the main upper low closing off. However I think once that upper low deepens and closes off that things will certainly be more snowier than gfs is depicting

Definitely very marginal temps for any accumulation. However with a relatively strong closed low and the fact it will be strengthening as it passes over us, makes me think dynamics could compensate for lack of colder air. I remember this clipper a few years ago came through with very marginal temps but it was very compact and wound up. We ended up dynamically cooling to around 32-31 and efficiently accumulated snow with moderate to sometimes heavy rates. I know this isn't a clipper but made me think of how wrapped up this system is aloft

Pretty similar. Semi on board with nam with colder and snowier. Gfs has a lot more rain and snow slop. To me the pattern would support a more gfs like solution but we shall see

Yea I'm loving the nam. Keeps the profiles colder. Would like to see support from other models though. GFS and Euro are warmer with more mixed precipitation versus snow

I'm curious how accurate this precip depiction algorithm is. Currently says 33 here but airport reporting freezing rain. Surface freezing line definitely making good progress north now

This precip is moving pretty rapidly. Been all snow here so far. I'm honestly not sure we will see much of a period of sleet or freezing rain. Pretty substantial dry slot advancing north and east. Snow ripping pretty good here now though. Probably will be in the 2-3in range

Saturation occurred rapidly here. Went from a few flurries to full on moderate snow in minutes. Like Hawkeye states, flakes are pretty puny. Pixie dust. So that may hurt totals. I already see mixed precipitation creeping it's way north towards Macomb. Feel like I may see more mixed precip than snow

Any way to see ice accumulations from RGEM?

Well hrrr might be the only one worth watching for shorter term trends. Honestly models tend not to do well with these tricky mixed precipitation events

Yea who knows. Precip field looks nice expanding in southern Plains but it does have to get through a lot of dry air from departing surface high

Well hopefully 0z nam isn't close to being right. Lol. Very unimpressive. Seems to be the trend this winter

I see models are initializing weaker with the high than it actually is. For example 0z hrrr has a 1042mb high when it's actually 1047mb. Curious if that's why some of these models are warning surface temperatures too quick. Could be slower with a stronger departing high

This storm is certainly not trending in a good way. At least for me. Slower timing which allows temperatures to moderate quite a bit giving a much shorter window of wintry precipitation

Just looking at 0z GEFS rolling in, it's definitely further south than the OP. Like you I'm not buying a GFS solution till I see more support. Curious to see if 0z euro holds firm or if we see a northern shift in the wave

Yea definitely could slow down. Well even with it's current track on models today it's still getting accumulating snow well south of I80. But for significant accumulations this south I agree a much more south track would be needed

One would think with that strong high storm track will be limited on how north it can get but that depends on how east the high gets and how strong. Pretty confident there will be a large swath of accumulating snow and an icing zone but how far south this gets remains to be seen. I'm pretty confident I80 north will see a decent event but unsure south of there

It's GFS. Enough said. Probably going to see a lot of fluctuations the next several days

My NWS office currently has my temp on Fri at 45. Think that needs to be adjusted down. Lol

Definitely warmer than 0z run. But like you said still a nice swath of snow and looked like more ice. Wish I could see ice totals on pivotal

Yea it's an odd setup with regards to surface flow. Seems like models are trending more towards a WAA snow event and less icing now. Euro/gfs in decent agreement which is surprising this far out

What are your thoughts on the icing potential in IL? GFS has a wide swath of ice

The key will come down to the strength and placement of that arctic high to the north. GFS has a 1047mb high over the Great Lakes area Fri versus Euro which is further east and 1044mb. GFS scenario allows for a prolonged significant icing event as the shallow layer of arctic air won't push north as fast as it does on Euro. Last run of Euro before this morning had the winter precip well north. This morning's run definitely appeared colder though not as icy as GFS. Curious to see how this unfolds

Had a few hours of nice rippage here and ended up with around 2in. Deformation band was rather disorganized and fast moving. This storm has been a real nightmare for forecasting. Low in the end was weaker and further east. Temp profiles were very problematic as well. I commend the nws offices for a great job with a difficult forecast