Radtechwxman

Well today didn't evolve how I expected at all. A lot more west and north than I anticipated. Wf may have helped that Happy, TX storm. Unreal cyclic beast. Thank god it missed major population centers because that was definitely probably an EF3-EF4 caliber tornado. Moderate risk area may end up busting tornado wise. That beast was on very edge of 15 hatched. Wonder if these storms near Lubbock will do anything. The more southern storms seem to be struggling more. One thing I did notice is as soon as those storms turned more NE instead of almost due north they went nuts. Needed that easterly component to really max out SRH.

Storms struggling to move off initiating boundary. If a storm could go east more off dryline, could locally enhance it's SRH.

Storm mode a bit messy already. Wondering if some VBV is an issue.

Hopefully this won't be the theme for peak tornado season. Miss the days of a nice bowling ball ejecting out instead of a strung out sheared mess.

Got 1-2in sun night into mon morning then picked up another 4-5in with the deformation band. So storm total in the 5-7in range. Hard to measure because of drifting. Biggest snow of the season. Finally met high end advisory to low end warning level snow!

Well glad this 1st system was good because this sure turned into a real dud. Would have been nice to have back to back snowstorms but oh well. Looks like the thaw commences this weekend.

Dry slot pushing pretty fast north. Might be ending here sooner than I thought. Definitely best snowstorm of this lame winter here. Sadly missed a lot of the heavy banding to the east. When all is said and done should be in 4-6in range for storm total. Hard to measure though because of all the drifting. Next storm trending towards a dud here so glad this one at least trended better here. Congrats to the Champaign, Indianapolis, Chicago folk. You all look to jackpot with this.

Looks like nam caved finally. Showing pretty much a non event here. Hoping it can trend back but starting to think it may not. At least I got this current storm. Kinda funny this storm trended better and better and this one is the opposite. Ha

I mean NAM nailed this storm being much more west so it's possible. But would like to see more support from other models.

Right. The Peoria dome is strong. Hoping to see things ramp up soon.

First initial push of snow on northern edge kind of poofed over me but looks like some mod to heavy snow is pushing in soon south of this.

Peoria dome ftw

Globals still wanting to keep this east. Gfs way east and gem more east than it was before. Will nam sniff out another nw trend or will this one be truly east this time? That's the million dollar question.

Yea they tend to follow their guidance very closely and ignore most hi res guidance. Ha

Been in their forecast area my whole life and it's a common theme. They usual low ball and continually bump up through event. Ha

I don't believe it at all. ILX is way underestimating this. I think event total here will easily be 5-7in in metro Peoria.

Anyone think we will see this trend nw like current storm did?

Wave last night did better than I thought. Easily 2in here. Deformation band looks to be developing nicely down south. Upper low looks lovely on water vapor taking on negative tilt.

Will be interesting to see if this ends up similar to current storm like nam suggests or a more sheared out way suppressed like gem and euro are suggesting. Gfs still pretty wrapped up. At about the same location as this current storm was at that time frame.

Seems like this initial appetizer snow is setting shop right now from STL to Champaign. Hoping we see the snow blossom more to the north like models suggest.

At this range I really don't put much stock in globals anymore unless they all started drastically shifting. I stick with hi res guidance at this point as they will be better at grasping short term trends.

This system is fascinating. Pretty rare to see big snows very far west from sfc low track. Upper level low nearby and good moisture feed into massive cold sector really driving a nice spread the wealth snowstorm. Hoping next storm can be more nw than what gfs/euro show currently. Would be awesome to close out this cold snowy pattern with two nearly back to back snowstorms.

Not to get greedy but would be AMAZING to get two back to back big snowstorms here. Esp after all winter has been lamefest minus NYD storm. Hoping that one can trend nw last second like this current one did. Long range nam looks similar to what it did for the current storm at this range.

And ILX be like 1-2in sounds good area wide

Yea they rarely do. Very last second on everything. Even are local TV mets are going higher.