Radtechwxman

If I remember right you're right by me. Lol. But yea typically flash flood watch + winter storm watch don't pan out well for winter weather. Best icing definitely to my northwest and same with snow. Meh. When gfs is your best outcome you know you're screwed

Right?! Meanwhile I'm like inches of cold rain with minimal ice and snow. Joy

So close. Ugh. Need the slightest se shift. Probably going to end up seeing mostly rain here. What a waste of a dynamic system

0z euro very amped. Has heaviest snow axis pretty much out of IL

Good ol medium range model chaos. Lol. Probably going to see a lot of wild swings till we get sampling Thurs

Literally was just discussing this with a buddy. Temps very marginal for a good icing event and ground is pretty mild to start. Snow will likely be slop fest to with low ratios. We need some good quality cold air

Yea GFS is all about the ice. Curious how much of that is sleet vs freezing rain. Definitely a northern shift in wintry precip on gfs today

I wish the Canadian could be right. Lol. Looks like 1-2in here. In the words of Ariana Grande "thank you next"

Curious if we will see any last second shifts with sampling finally occurring tonight and tomorrow

This thread died as fast as it started. Lol

Seemed like the snow swath was further south. But maybe just a narrower band and sharper north cutoff. Starting to feel it will be lucky if this snow even makes it to I74. Sometimes these frontogenic bands can really be thread the needle. Deformation band looks to clip here possibly

Wouldn't that lead to a further north scenario typically? Seems like it ended up more south. But it also has that high pressure really nudging south

12z nam coming in south. Pretty much stopping snow band at I72. At least for the WAA snow

Yea 18z nam looks good for a good portion of this forum. Nice WAA band. Curious to see if 18z gfs nudges north. 3km nam and 12km nam both looked nice

He's saying it is underdoing the cold sector precip. Based on how it evolved it should be throwing more qpf into the cold side

Gfs more north compared to last night's run but definitely further south than it's been the last several days. Nam a bit further north than gfs

Comical. Gfs trended toward how euro had been and now euro trended a step toward how gfs had been

I'm sure the 1st of many model shifts we will see. I think gfs is probably too north and bullish and euro is too south and stingy. Not surprising to see gfs cave somewhat. Still not as bad as euro but definitely a step in the wrong direction

ILX seems to be concerned of drier air mixing out ice nuclei causing a possible drizzle situation over snow. But I'm not really seeing this in models

UPDATE... Issued at 811 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 No major changes to going forecast for the overnight hours, though some concerns persist. Showers have developed west of the Illinois River Valley this evening and will continue to spread east. Precip has already transitioned over to snow from Galesburg through Macomb and should see areas west of the Illinois River Valley transition over by around midnight. Trends will have to be monitored overnight with respect to the depth of the saturated layer. Main concern is that several models indicate a narrow mid level dry slot will punch across the Illinois River Valley overnight, resulting in loss of ice nuclei at times, particularly between 06-12Z tonight. This would transition precip back to liquid drizzle and cut down on snow amounts. As is typical with mixed precip scenarios, it`s the difference of only a degree or two which doesn`t lend much in the way of confidence to make large scale changes to the forecast at this time. Regardless of how precip pans out overnight, still appears the best snow production will occur from the predawn hours through the morning Thursday.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Definitely was modeled terribly. Our local met posted this

Rain snow line was more north than I anticipated. Good ol' 33-34 cold rain here with some sleet mixed in. Hoping I fair better with the main event. I'm honestly surprised temps didnt drop quicker with dews in upper 20s. Thought evaporative cooling would do the trick but I was wrong

Storm mode is my main concern. Looks like things could grow upscale fast with strong forcing and high instability. I haven't looked to see how strong the capping is

Very well said. Pretty abnormal to see upper levels winds like that this south in late June. The instability/shear combo is impressive esp in southern KS on Sun. But the strong forcing makes me think you could see a lot of storms fire and get messy quick. But man if anything can stay discrete it will be tornadofest. OFB Sat in OK could get interesting

Right. I'm shocked. I can't chase but still like discussing the threat