Going to be a nail biter here in Peoria. 1st wave on most guidance minus UKMET/GEM misses me largely north and 2nd wave has the low nearly on me on most guidance. I'm expecting more ice than anything now and some plain rain. Unsure on snow potential.
Watch this secondary low follow the same path the Christmas Eve/Christmas day storm followed. That ridging to the east will be critical in determining if this is more of a GL cutter or an App runner. Definitely will be interesting to see what evolves as this trough is impressive.
I'm honestly surprised how east the secondary low goes with how the upper levels look. You would think this could trend west given how wrapped up it gets
Nice to see euro on board with robust secondary low development. But I'm feeling that the first wave will miss me to west with snow and second wave east. Sounds about right. Obviously it's early and track is far from locked in but that's typical luck for my area. Lol
Euro definitely took a big step towards GEM but like hawkeye stated, it wraps it up later and the front end hit isn't as aggressive as GEM. Chicago area could luck out on this one esp with secondary low development.
I see 12z gfs looks a lot like euro now with a way west cutter. Joy. The year going out with the 2020 trend....CRAP. Hoping we can trend back to at least a decent front end thump but I'm not holding my breath.
THIS. Lol. I like the active pattern with powerhouse storms but definitely would like to see the storm track shunted more south and east. Cold rain is no beuno
Overall CDO seems to have warmed some but man that lightning in the southern to southwest eyewall has been relentless. Not sure this will hit cat 5 before landfall though.
Goes to show you that satellite estimates have errors and you just can't beat actual aircraft data. This likely was overestimated earlier with strength and just now is hitting that level