Radtechwxman

You and me both! Just had this absolutely wicked band come through here. Easily rates of 2in/hr and wind gusts of 45mph+. Visibility was half to quarter mile. It went through way too fast. Was hoping it would park over me

Yea hasn't panned out how I hoped. Probably will be on lower end of forecast totals. But still has been nice seeing near white out conditions at times

My proximity to the dry slot and subsidence from this death band to my west is killing snow bands pivoting into my area. If this doesn't improve my totals are going to be cut in half or more

Euro's consistency is pretty remarkable. Def can't be ignored. Seems like models finally honed in on a low track near I70. Slightly better for my area. Blizzard conditions are looking pretty set in stone with 40-50+ gusts coinciding with an insane deformation band. Only thing that may keep blizzard warnings from being issued would be the time criteria needed but I still think DVN and LOT and nw portion of ILX need to upgrade. This is going to be high impact for hours. Looks like my snow will all be after dark which will be good for better ratios. Mon morning commute is going to be treacherous for many

How did you see lightning on there?

Can you post the map further south?

Where do you view this model?

Well at this point I'm more inclined to believe the more northerly models. Before it looked like the low would track right along I70 but now it's looking closer to I72 which is terrible for me

In the exact same boat as you. I feel your pain

The cutoff for this is pretty unreal. Has warning criteria in nw portion of my county and nothing se. I'm like in the middle. Lol. This is going to be a nail biter

Seems like we have a stronger, slower solution showing up now. Definitely a notable slowing trend. Currently our low is 993mb in far SW Kansas. Strongest pressure falls occurring across the KS-OK border and spilling into OK. Seems like it should keep a mostly east course. Where it starts turning more ne will be critical to areas further east (central IL, Chicago) changing over sooner or later

That would be some mix. Sleet, snow. Not solid snow. Esp given where it tracks the low near I72. One thing I have noticed, even with HRRR, is that it tends to miss how rapid dynamic cooling can take place. Changeover could be quicker than it shows. Do you think the low will track that north? My gut has always been on I70

New HRRR. 0z run is very amped up with the low and has the track very north. It has mixing issues pretty much all day Sun in IL all the way to the MS. Except far northern IL

Not sure it shifted. It just has a wider jackpot zone. Also not as brutally sharp cutoffs. Probably not realistic though as the mesoscale bands will have brutal cutoffs

Anyone know what 18z euro showed?

I'm mad jealous. Literally the extreme nw portion of my county could see warning criteria while the se portion sees nothing. Unbelievable. Hoping for a slight southward shift

Well I never really been in the heart of this. Always been on edge. So any north shifts and I'm out of it. Euro has been the only one hammering my area but seems to be on it's own. Really need that low to track along or preferably south of I70

Models need to make up their mind. 12z goes south and gets me excited then 18z goes north and screws me. I don't know what to expect at this point

Euro has been remarkably consistent the last several runs. I trust it more than GFS. Euro looks like it pretty much tracks the low right along I70. Would feel more comfortable if that was a touch south but still better than GFS which is north of I70 by a good bit

36hr 12z hrrr looks like it has been smoking the same stuff gfs is. Very far north low track. Crazy how close we are and still no clue

That's a drastic shift from the 0z run a few hours ago. Wouldn't buy it. Waiting on 12z runs with fresh data and a full sampling

I'm still rooting for weaker and south. Ha. But am amped up northern solution wouldn't shock me at all. Would be nice to see that amped up solution but further south

Couldn't agree more. What a nightmare for nws offices

Weird that Canadian model definitely has a more southerly sfc low track compared to GFS however it's heavy snow swath looks very similar to GFS

Well if the system ends up being more wrapped up like GFS that track makes sense. Other models like nam and euro are weaker but still potent