Radtechwxman

This thread is anomalously quiet for the weekend severe potential

I just figured it out. My apologies. Was kinda confusing at first. I'm new to the site. But it has a bar up top showing the progress and shows the run at the bottom. I swear I'm not an idiot. Just had a blonde moment. Lol

Then why in the corner does it say 12z Thurs current run?? Where it says valid 0z Thurs is actually the time frame I'm looking at. Wed night

Hopefully won't get in trouble for posting this. Winds aloft not looking as westerly as before. Jet has more amplitude this time around and not as flat

I have eurowx. 12z run is out through Wed now

Well 12z euro took a step in the wrong direction. Hopefully just a bad run and not a trend. Looking more GFS like

Yea GFS is all over the place. Euro has been holding relatively consistent. 12z gfs has no surface wave on Wed now and really lags the upper jet behind mostly likely cuz it has more amplitude then euro. Hopefully it caves eventually

Couldn't say it better myself. And it has a nice tight sfc low which is deepening in that classic spot near the panhandles and se CO. Great turning like you said. If euro is right Wed def could be one of the bigger days in recent years in the southern Plains. And love that it is showing it in the better terrain near and west of I35

Yea it's been tough to get some westerlies aloft the last several years. Slow moving meridional BS. So would be fantastic to see a lower amplitude trough for once

0z gfs very impressive. Esp on Wed. To me seems to be trending towards Euro like solution. Upper levels still more southerly than I prefer but still far out and plenty of time for improvement. Def a step in the right direction

I still think Tues-Thurs have a decent risk of severe weather. Obviously depends on evolution and timing of trough but overall seems like a setup for a few chase days. After this we look to see a lull again into mid month and then possibly ramping up mid to late May again

Thanks for posting those man! Appreciate it. That is gorgeous! Nice low amplitude broad based trough. I know andyhb is a fan of those and I love that it looks like another trough is loading in the SW behind it. Kinda reminds of the late May 2013. Could see several days of chasing opportunities with the possibility of a few bigger days.

I wasn't able to see the upper levels on the site I use for Euro. However I did like the strong sfc low shown near the panhandles. Gfs had a similar position albeit weaker. The moisture and cape were great. What did the jet orientation look like? Seems like models are trending less positive tilt now

Why isn't there a thread for this event yet? Just curious

What site did you get those euro graphics from? I have a subsription to weathermodels now but not impressed

I saw NAO is suppose to stay negative through at least next week so looking like that eastern trough will hold. Nor'easter galore. Heck by this time last yr I already saw several nice tornadoes

Yea gfs is crazy. Powerhouse system is nearly stationary for days cuz of the strong blocking downstream. Would like to see a little more progression and less blocking. But overall this will def bring some chase days if gfs verifies. Ample moisture and very strong jet dynamics

i know. i am just sayin that when the tornado was touching down just west of town it went large fast and was seen by spotters. but i do agree that it all happened so fast. the NWS did the best they could.

well noted. it did transition very rapidly. if i am not mistaken, there was an outflow boundary in the region with strong 0-1km helicities. the storm really rapidly evolved once it took advantage of that boundary and its shear. instability kept the storm sustained with extreme CAPE values

i totally agree. all warnings should be treated the same. take shelter. but i was just shocked there wasn't a tornado emergency when multiple spotters reported a large wedge doin damage

that isn't strong enough wording. the warning should have said large and extremely dangerous tornado. and there should have been a tornado emergency.

Does anyone know if a tornado emergency was issued for Joplin?

i will be careful with what i write for now on. i shouldnt have said it doesnt make sense with what they were doin. bad choice of wording. i was trying to say i dont agree with their area at the moment.

never said i was going to be right. i have reasoning behind my current thinking. i am not a wishcaster by any means. you just keep stating the obvious. not really necessary. i am going to state my opinion and i love reading what other people say to. i just dont need witty remarks back of things i already know. i am well aware of what the SPC does and aware of the expertise in the forecasting field. doesnt mean i am always going to agree with their forecasts because there arent always right just like many meteorologists and majors, like myself, in the field

yes i know.....i am a meteorology major. i do know these things. but i still disagree with their thinking. we all have opinions