Radtechwxman

Great points. Your AFD was quite excellent this afternoon. Eager to see 0z runs if they continue what 12z did or shift back. Obviously major shifts still possible till sampling occurs later Thurs and Fri

If that's the case then the ensembles are more reliable than the operational. Weird

Why lol at north trend? Happened last second with this previous storm

I was expecting a north trend. Def shocked by this. Hopefully it will correct itself in a few days

I have little confidence in GFS. It did god awful with the last storm and it has been all over the place with this storm. Last night it buried a wide swath between I72 and I80 and now it has a narrow swath south of where it was last night. No consistency

Euro has had overall good consistency run to run. Gfs has been shifting so much. Definitely relying more on euro at this point. Last time the bullseye was between I70 and I72. Feel like this time it will be further north

That's what I'm hoping but I would be very happy with that run

Yea I noticed that. Beefed up totals on the edge. Very nice run. Like Chicago Storm said, the more strung out southern vort prevented an even more extreme solution but this is still crazy. A large area of extreme snow amounts. Likely would see some pretty robust winds to

Euro looking pretty amped. That pressure gradient. Just wow. Heavy snow axis seems to be relatively similar to previous run. Maybe a tad south? Hard to tell

Ukie is about as trustworthy as our current political climate

Man wish we could lock in 0z gfs. Ha. That would make most of us happy. For now looks like this Thurs system doesn't look to get too amped up so that's good. I was shocked today that ILX was calling 3-5in this weekend. Way too early to make any calls

How so? It wasn't solely WAA. But that definitely was a big part of it. As the upper low and surface system approached then it became more driven from the deformation band

I mean last weekend was more so just a large long duration WAA snow event. Had a lot of lift and isentropic upglide ahead of a slow moving upper low. This system has quite a few more pieces that have to interact just right for it to go gangbusters. That's what I'm saying

I guess I should say multiple vorts involved instead. Just isn't looking like a slam dunk winter storm. A lot has to time right and position right. Also need to see if this thurs system is weak or amped. Not saying we won't see a major winter storm, just more complications than the last one. Not as clear cut

Typically these winter storms that require so many pieces to come together rarely pan out. Just so sensitive to the smallest of changes. So many PV's involved and that brutal high pressure. Honestly it is a crap shoot at this point. Feel like the high end potential of this isn't super high but feel like a moderate event is more likely. Not discounting a powerhouse storm but atm I'm not feeling confident in that

Yea that seems drastically different from last night which was like pound town for IL

I agree. This has all the makings of a major storm but with so many pieces and that lead system, it definitely complicates matters. I couldn't help but notice though that the amount of moisture, the placement and strength of the high reminded me of GHD 2011 but I know that trough went neg tilt and the sfc low got decently strong as it passed through southern IL

That was a nice euro run. Pretty widespread spread the wealth. Surface low isn't too amped, at least not till later but man that pressure gradient. 1048mb high! That reminds me of GHD 2011. That high was insane to. Might have been 1050mb+

I would give anything for that UKMET to verify. Lol. That's just insane. Add that to model archive images. Just like I did earlier with that -32 temp from FV3. Ha. It's obvious this has a very high ceiling but plenty of room for heartbreak. A lot has to position and time right. Multiple PV's and a likely potent arctic high

I think areas from I70 north definitely have a good shot with this. Possibly I72 north depending on how much warm air this pulls up ahead of this. I already see snow maps and predictions making their rounds. Going to being a long week. Lol. And I agree with buckeye, would love to see a deep snowpack before one of these arctic dumps. Let's get that -32 on FV3 to verify ha

I hope not. Ha. Would love to cash in on back to back significant winter storms. It's been a long time. Getting almost a foot yesterday has me thirsty for more

Do I dare say the B word is possible with this? def a very tight pressure gradient with incoming arctic high. This one looks to be followed by quite a cold blast to. And you make a good point about the snow pack being in the models a week. Didn't think of that. I know it is an overused concept. Just thought this one is a pretty large scale deep snow pack though

This one is going to be a nail biter. Lol. This system definitely looks to be more wound up and amped which could allow a more northerly track. However, with this deep snow pack in place, I wonder how much impact that baroclinic zone from the snow will have on the storm track

One would think that the large area of heavy snow put down yesterday and today will have impact on future storm track. I know there will be melting down by I70 but they got a lot of snow to melt. We got areas nearing or exceeding a foot up by I74. Our temps here don't get above 35 this week so not a ton of melting should occur. This leaves a large sw to ne oriented baroclinic zone for next weeks system. Which the storm track on GFS looks remarkably similar to this idea. Just one model though. Would be awesome to see back to back major winter storms only a week apart. This system will have much more wind with it

Thanks for that. Never was sure on how to properly do that. My first time using a board. Typically I look for something elevated that can't be influenced by ground warming. Like a grill. Or bird feeder. Or a plantar. Lots of reports of 9-10in in my area so sounds like my measurements should be close