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Radtechwxman

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Everything posted by Radtechwxman

  1. Radtechwxman
    Yea I'm loving the nam. Keeps the profiles colder. Would like to see support from other models though. GFS and Euro are warmer with more mixed precipitation versus snow
  2. Radtechwxman
    I'm curious how accurate this precip depiction algorithm is. Currently says 33 here but airport reporting freezing rain. Surface freezing line definitely making good progress north now
  3. Radtechwxman
    This precip is moving pretty rapidly. Been all snow here so far. I'm honestly not sure we will see much of a period of sleet or freezing rain. Pretty substantial dry slot advancing north and east. Snow ripping pretty good here now though. Probably will be in the 2-3in range
  4. Radtechwxman
    Saturation occurred rapidly here. Went from a few flurries to full on moderate snow in minutes. Like Hawkeye states, flakes are pretty puny. Pixie dust. So that may hurt totals. I already see mixed precipitation creeping it's way north towards Macomb. Feel like I may see more mixed precip than snow
  5. Radtechwxman
    Any way to see ice accumulations from RGEM?
  6. Radtechwxman
    Well hrrr might be the only one worth watching for shorter term trends. Honestly models tend not to do well with these tricky mixed precipitation events
  7. Radtechwxman
    Yea who knows. Precip field looks nice expanding in southern Plains but it does have to get through a lot of dry air from departing surface high
  8. Radtechwxman
    Well hopefully 0z nam isn't close to being right. Lol. Very unimpressive. Seems to be the trend this winter
  9. Radtechwxman
    I see models are initializing weaker with the high than it actually is. For example 0z hrrr has a 1042mb high when it's actually 1047mb. Curious if that's why some of these models are warning surface temperatures too quick. Could be slower with a stronger departing high
  10. Radtechwxman
    This storm is certainly not trending in a good way. At least for me. Slower timing which allows temperatures to moderate quite a bit giving a much shorter window of wintry precipitation
  11. Radtechwxman
    Just looking at 0z GEFS rolling in, it's definitely further south than the OP. Like you I'm not buying a GFS solution till I see more support. Curious to see if 0z euro holds firm or if we see a northern shift in the wave
  12. Radtechwxman
    Yea definitely could slow down. Well even with it's current track on models today it's still getting accumulating snow well south of I80. But for significant accumulations this south I agree a much more south track would be needed
  13. Radtechwxman
    One would think with that strong high storm track will be limited on how north it can get but that depends on how east the high gets and how strong. Pretty confident there will be a large swath of accumulating snow and an icing zone but how far south this gets remains to be seen. I'm pretty confident I80 north will see a decent event but unsure south of there
  14. Radtechwxman
    It's GFS. Enough said. Probably going to see a lot of fluctuations the next several days
  15. Radtechwxman
    My NWS office currently has my temp on Fri at 45. Think that needs to be adjusted down. Lol
  16. Radtechwxman
    Definitely warmer than 0z run. But like you said still a nice swath of snow and looked like more ice. Wish I could see ice totals on pivotal
  17. Radtechwxman
    Yea it's an odd setup with regards to surface flow. Seems like models are trending more towards a WAA snow event and less icing now. Euro/gfs in decent agreement which is surprising this far out
  18. Radtechwxman
    What are your thoughts on the icing potential in IL? GFS has a wide swath of ice
  19. Radtechwxman
    The key will come down to the strength and placement of that arctic high to the north. GFS has a 1047mb high over the Great Lakes area Fri versus Euro which is further east and 1044mb. GFS scenario allows for a prolonged significant icing event as the shallow layer of arctic air won't push north as fast as it does on Euro. Last run of Euro before this morning had the winter precip well north. This morning's run definitely appeared colder though not as icy as GFS. Curious to see how this unfolds
  20. Radtechwxman
    Had a few hours of nice rippage here and ended up with around 2in. Deformation band was rather disorganized and fast moving. This storm has been a real nightmare for forecasting. Low in the end was weaker and further east. Temp profiles were very problematic as well. I commend the nws offices for a great job with a difficult forecast
  21. Radtechwxman
    This deformation band is looking pretty anemic. Unless it really blossoms later, snow totals will bust bad which already looked bleak with a more organized band
  22. Radtechwxman
    Yea seems like instead of the rain training along the same areas all night, it ended up pushing east quicker than new bands of rain could pull northeast. Curious to see if this deformation band will materialize over us or not
  23. Radtechwxman
    Current hrrr is way off on temps. Currently in 30s here and hrrr showing 45. But looks like 1st wave of precip will be gone regardless before I drop enough. Have to wait on deformation band
  24. Radtechwxman
    21z hrrr is laughable at surface evolution. It has like 2-3 low centers. Very odd evolution
  25. Radtechwxman
    Literally was thinking the same thing. Way overdone..except Michigan. They probably will get a decent ice storm
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