Radtechwxman

It's seriously embarrassing what ILX does. They always refer to SPC discussion. Like do your own analysis. DVN was uncharacteristically conservative. LOT great as always. Not sure what the other offices aren't seeing

Yea not sure I buy this thing slowly that much with initiation that west. Pretty drastic shift. Hrrr makes more sense with timing. I could see a somewhat slower trend and possibly more west of hrrr but nothing like the nam's

Lol. Built the hype. Now time for it to get crushed. Yea 12z euro definitely was weaker esp with sfc wind speeds. Killed the hodo in the low levels. But since that isn't a high resolution model probably would put more faith in shorter term hi res models

DVN is being majorly conservative: THE LIKELY SPEED OF THE LINE (POTENTIALLY 45-50 MPH) MEANS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. IF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BECOME FAVORABLE THEN ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

Well I referenced it was it that sweet spot to se of sfc low so kind of inferring that. Lol. But pretty sure I read somewhere it interacted with an ofb as well

I was thinking that to. That day overall had veered sfc flow. I think that storm was a mesoscale accident. Hit an ofb from previous storms. Wf was well north of it. It was also in that sweet spot just se of a rapidly deepening sfc low

I don't blame Thompson. That was a terrible outlook by Broyles. This is how it should have looked last night. Mentioned potential upgrade to in further outlooks

Yea he is being very conservative which is unlike him. Tornadoes were definitely worth mentioning. Slight risk areas should be bigger to especially up north

It's been snowing here off and on all day. Still no accumulation. Lol. This band pivoting over me is probably dumping at .000000001 in/hr

Slower/later phase definitely favoring you Michigan folk

Will probably be congratulating Florida by tomorrow morning

Wow and the trend continues. Unbelievable. I really thought the se trend would stop. Barely get 1-2in now. Like I said days ago when I was suppose to get rain....punt

Yes I was expecting rain days ago. Yes I'm in a watch now. But I'm hardcore skeptical. Lol. Esp with models still shifting around. Going with the good ol' wait and see what happens. My current forecast is 0-6in. Lol. Would be nice to actually have a snowstorm without a trash antecedent air mass. Lol. But hey this is good for winter 2019-2020. I think our biggest snow this yr here was like 4.5in. So potential to break that if everything pans out. We shall see. Curious if 0z runs continue the downfall or maybe trend back somewhat

Latest nam utter trash. Unbelievable how bad this has trended. Would barely be wwa worthy here now

Lolz. Another one bites the dust. Theme song of this winter. There's going to be some drastic changes to snow maps and headlines come afternoon updates

Hrrr being hrrr. Way too warm

Cue the continued downward trend today. This winter won't disappoint

Man what a nightmare for forecasters. Most models have current watch area, esp nw portions, void of significant snows. So was our last piece of energy fully sampled on 0z runs?

Can anyone post the Euro Kuchera map for further sw in IL and adjacent IA?

0z euro pretty unimpressive. 1st wave pretty much a dud. Better organized 2nd wave but not as robust as other models

GFS definitely a step in the right direction. Keep it going :p

Looking like another 2-4 incher here, story of every storm this winter. Whoopty do! Lol

Like I said, don't really follow it so my bad. It seems to be way too weak and south so not really giving it much faith compared to the rest of the model suite. Definitely eager to see if we see a reversal in 0z trends or if things hold from 12z runs

I guess I just don't follow it closely enough. I think anything would be better than goofus. Euro has its magical moments but definitely has struggled this winter. At this point I'm not sure what to believe

Does anyone even follow or believe anything that model shows? Lol