Radtechwxman

Honestly thought that run was going to have higher accumulations a bit further south because sfc low seemed a little more south and maybe slightly less amped. But still buried Iowa. Euro not wanting to budge. Curious to see which model caves first. GFS or Euro.

Whelp never good when you're living on the se edge of the heavy snow band and models start trending stronger and nw. Lol. Gfs definitely bumped nw on 18z run with sfc low. Still not as strong as euro but maybe a bit more consolidation at the sfc. Still 5 days out and a lot can change but definitely a nail biter here. My gut is saying DVN to LOT will cash in big on this. I was thinking that this may trend se with that arctic baroclinic zone bleeding se and the weakish low but we shall see.

GFS came south and Euro came north. Should be be a fun week. Lol. Euro was significantly more amped with sfc low this run which brought it more nw. Gfs still had a decent sfc reflection but nothing like Euro and more strung out and not as consolidated. Curious to see this once it's in nam's range

Laplace is in big trough. Eastern eyewall parked over them with insane rainfall rates and now it's starting to retrograde. Easily could see 20in+ of rain

Well they're a match made in heaven. I listened to that dudes stream for a solid min and turned it off. Screaming and over exaggerating everything. Just irritates me when people have no regard for their life or others and then expect everyone to save them. Don't wish anything ill on him but just tired of his ways. He's shady.

That's CJ Lergner. That dude is a reckless idiot. He would put himself in danger in order to get footage. Most chasers played it safe and stayed away from the vulnerable surge areas but he was way south. He has no regard for other people then expects everyone to bail him out.

Man last few radar frames look like Ida is nearly stalled and almost retrograding

Think this might achieve cat 5 just before landfall like Michael did?

I think Ida may finally be leveling off. Albeit still in warm waters, the OHC near shore is not nearly as impressive as it was in hours ago and absolutely exploded. Regardless, this is going to be catastrophic.

What an incredible few hours of strengthening. It has exceeded what it did all day in a few hours.

Huge uptick in eyewall lightning now. Ida is bombing. The scenario we all feared. My earlier call of this not hitting 130 was very wrong. Just took a long time for Ida to organize

With the high octane fuel of the Loop Current, I'm surprised we aren't seeing a big uptick of eyewall lightning with pressures quickly falling and convection increasing.

IR presentation definitely improving but can't really say for sure it's bombing till we get aircraft in there to get accurate wind readings and new pressure info

I'm starting to get skeptical of this hitting 130 before landfall. Ida really running out of time. If it doesn't really bombs away in next 6-10hrs I'm thinking a low to mid cat 3 more likely. Regardless of whether it's a cat 3 or 4, surge and rain will still bring a lot of destruction along with the 110+ gusts.

Seems like Ida might be one of those hurricanes whose wind field might expand more than winds increasing. Pressure been dropping all day with increasing wind field but strength of winds been slower to rise.

Which is odd because wasn't dry air supposed to be NIL? NHC was always talking about a very moist environment

Can't really fudge numbers. That's unethical if it isn't true. Hunters hunters will be in soon and can give more accurate information than Dvorak analysis

105mph 976mb new advisory. They said RI underway

Yeah I'm a bit perplexed given the environment it's in. I honestly thought it would be exploding right now. Clearly something still holding it back.

Definitely was expecting to wake up to a much stronger cane. IR presentation is improving though.

As NHC predicted, Cuba had little impact on Ida. Curious to see how soon we will see RI start again. Would think it would start later tonight but if not then for sure all day tomorrow. Very nervous to see what we wake up to tomorrow in the Gulf.

No. There is certainly nothing official with regards to forecast discussion or analysis that suggests this is a Category 5. TAFB Dvorak analysis hit T6.5/127 kts per discussion and ADT numbers are about 10 kts lower. Felicia has already maxed out for an annular-type TC within the current thermodynamic environment. It would need to drop a bit more latitude and reach warmer SSTs to get any stronger. Even with cooler upper tropospheric temperatures, Felicia's core is riding a 26.5 to 27°C isotherm. Its eyewall has probably maxed out potential intensity at its current westward vector of motion. I agree with you. Someone needs to call out this page for spreading false information.

I follow a page called Force Thirteen on FB and they claimed this hit cat 5 status 4hrs ago. Anyone know if that's true?

I can't believe this stayed a hurricane. Probably the ugliest "hurricane" on record.

Structure looked better on satellite and radar earlier when it was tropical storm. Haha. Had a nice northern eyewall like feature on radar north of Key West. Now radar presentation is choppy and satellite looks more lopsided compared to earlier.