Radtechwxman

So definitely could be higher then. I'm no damage expert obviously. Just going off what I seen in the past. Miracle there hasn't been mass fatalities reported given the timing and how severe the damage is. Advanced warning time saved many lives.

That definitely looks like solid EF3 damage in spots. Maybe even mid to high range EF3 in spots.

TWC just confirmed 1 fatality in Newnan. Hopefully there won't be anymore.

Yep....

Yeah I'm getting busty vibes further west. This is evolving more like 0z hrrr showed. The deepening low was key today and it hasn't really done that much. Hard to say if something major will evolve later or if this will be it....

Yeah this is definitely holding back the threat in MS so far. Sfc winds veered. I think a cap has built in to. Jet streak still seems to be hanging back west so curious in a few hours if that will deepen the low, improve sfc flow, and help to break the cap west. This has been a very sloppy evolution so far.

Definitely thought the same thing. SPC and NWS not too optimistic about the threat but I think at some point there will be a slight risk. 3km nam looks nice. Arc of storms by 18z that moves into central IL through 0z.

Anyone have an eye on the cold core severe potential on Tues? Some impressive cold temps aloft right over central IL. Instability doesn't look great but that could improve as we get closer. Even if it doesn't, I could see some tornado potential being possible with low topped supercells.

Not that this will be anything of the caliber of the Easter outbreak last year but I'm getting vibes mostly with the messy evolution and later ejecting trough. Definitely plenty of red flags like a weak cap in warm sector with numerous storms going, better shear holding off till llj goes nuts at 0z, a later in day trough ejection, lapse rates sufficient but not quite as steep as they were days ago, and seeing some VBV in soundings. I could see a scenario where near the warm front and south sees numerous rounds of severe storms with some tornado threat albeit messy and instability really builds in south of this. As that speed max pushes out, may see a few rogue cells fire in northern Louisiana into southern Mississippi and go nuts in a very sheared and moderately unstable atmosphere. 0z hrrr was hinting at this idea. Definitely will be a nowcasting situation. I wouldn't go high risk tonight but if things looked better for an enhanced corridor of significant tornado potential could always add a small high risk area tomorrow. Regardless of whether there will be discrete supercells with significant tornado potential, I do feel confident in a QLCS with significant tornado potential given the shear magnitude after 0z.

Yeah I chased that day and the high risk the next day which was a much more significant outbreak with multiple long track strong to violent tornadoes. It's a good thing that storm today stayed away from major population areas. That would have been a catastrophe.

Definitely did not rival a high risk day. Yes that storm was very impressive but that was the only truly cyclic beast of the day. Yes there were other tornadoes but were relatively short lived and not long tracked.

Outside the Happy, TX storm today wasn't overly eventful from a tornado standpoint. I think that storm having more deviant motion off the front really enhanced its tornado potential. Other storms large paralleled the boundary and inflows were consistently getting contaminated by the next storm down the line. I think slower movement of cutoff low which isn't surprising lead to the flow paralleling the boundary instead of it being more orthogonal to it. Storms really struggled to get east off it into open warm sector. The best instability ended up setting up west where cirrus thinned sooner. Low level lapse rates and sfc based cape were not overly impressive in the eastern panhandle. Not a bad chase day for March but hopefully this season we can see some quality warm sector storms that aren't an HP mess in the Plains. Definitely a tricky chase today. Lots of storms to choose from.

Nice catch man!

People get butthurt really easily in this forum. Lol. Was simply voicing my opinion and observations. Idc what the outlook is. I look at the meteorology not the SPC outlook. But was stating where the significant tornado happened earlier on was on the edge or possibly outside the 15 hatched but doesn't really matter. Just an observation. Calm down everyone. Lol

Well given that storm mode is significantly less discrete than it was earlier may not see like we did earlier with that storm. Not saying significant tornadoes can't happen in the moderate risk. Just seems like now the supercells are merging largely. But will likely still see spin ups given the shear. Could be more QLCS related though. We shall see. I was just expecting what happened further west to happen more so to the east. That's what I was getting at. Still somewhat semi discrete mode. I think even if it goes linear there will still be plenty of strong rotations within it.

Well today didn't evolve how I expected at all. A lot more west and north than I anticipated. Wf may have helped that Happy, TX storm. Unreal cyclic beast. Thank god it missed major population centers because that was definitely probably an EF3-EF4 caliber tornado. Moderate risk area may end up busting tornado wise. That beast was on very edge of 15 hatched. Wonder if these storms near Lubbock will do anything. The more southern storms seem to be struggling more. One thing I did notice is as soon as those storms turned more NE instead of almost due north they went nuts. Needed that easterly component to really max out SRH.

Storms struggling to move off initiating boundary. If a storm could go east more off dryline, could locally enhance it's SRH.

Storm mode a bit messy already. Wondering if some VBV is an issue.

Hopefully this won't be the theme for peak tornado season. Miss the days of a nice bowling ball ejecting out instead of a strung out sheared mess.

Got 1-2in sun night into mon morning then picked up another 4-5in with the deformation band. So storm total in the 5-7in range. Hard to measure because of drifting. Biggest snow of the season. Finally met high end advisory to low end warning level snow!

Well glad this 1st system was good because this sure turned into a real dud. Would have been nice to have back to back snowstorms but oh well. Looks like the thaw commences this weekend.

Dry slot pushing pretty fast north. Might be ending here sooner than I thought. Definitely best snowstorm of this lame winter here. Sadly missed a lot of the heavy banding to the east. When all is said and done should be in 4-6in range for storm total. Hard to measure though because of all the drifting. Next storm trending towards a dud here so glad this one at least trended better here. Congrats to the Champaign, Indianapolis, Chicago folk. You all look to jackpot with this.

Looks like nam caved finally. Showing pretty much a non event here. Hoping it can trend back but starting to think it may not. At least I got this current storm. Kinda funny this storm trended better and better and this one is the opposite. Ha

I mean NAM nailed this storm being much more west so it's possible. But would like to see more support from other models.

Right. The Peoria dome is strong. Hoping to see things ramp up soon.